Ten Questions and Ten Answers 丨 Dialogue on the current economic situation Eighth: How to achieve cold and stable prices in the real estate market

Zhejiang News Client reporter Fang Zhenzi

The current economic situation is extremely complicated, and the "triple pressure" superimposed "two major variables", unstable and uncertain factors significantly increased. How to think about the current economic trend, how to open the stuck card, how to help market entities more powerful ... In response to some hot issues in the current economic operation, reporters and experts and scholars who have long been concerned about Zhejiang economy for a long time have been discussed.

Since the beginning of this year, the sales area and sales of commercial housing have faced a significant decline, and the growth rate of development investment has also slowed significantly. In order to cope with the new situation and new challenges, we are focusing on supporting the first rigid house purchase demand, reasonable improvement in demand, and leased housing demand.

The real estate industry has a large scale, long chain, and widely involved, and has a pivotal role in the national economy. It is the pillar industry. What role does the real estate play in the "stable economy" and how to guide the healthy cycle and healthy development of the real estate market? The reporter interviewed Yu Xiaofen, vice president of Zhejiang University of Technology and president of the Chinese Institute of Housing and Real Estate.

Reporter: How to view the pressure and challenges of the current real estate industry?

Yu Xiaofen: In the first half of this year, the Zhejiang real estate market fell significantly, mainly manifested as: decline in transactions, price recovery, land cooling, and the broken capital chain of individual real estate enterprises. These changes are not only a lag reaction of the superposition effect of real estate regulation policies in the past few years, but also related to the economic downturn brought about by the multi -point outbreak of the epidemic and the international turmoil since this year.

First of all, on the one hand, economic operations are facing large downward pressure, which directly reduces the purchasing power and income expectations of residents. On the other hand, in the past few years, the real estate market is overheating and the demand for house purchase is overdrawn, and the intensity of intensity real estate regulation has a reversal of rising house prices. Many factors have prompted residents to slow down their paidies, which will affect the virtuous circle of the entire industry.

Secondly, traditional high -liabilities, high leverage, and high turnover "three high" development and operation models are challenged. "Three -line and four grades" and "two episodes" suppress the rapid expansion of developers from the source of funds. The financing constraints suddenly tightened the market downward sharply, and the housing company's capital chain squeezed the two ends.

Third, the contradiction between high house prices and the need to meet the needs of residents' good life and inhibit the release of potential house purchase needs. Since the reform of the housing system, the housing conditions of residents in our province have undergone fundamental changes, but it must be seen that the price of commercial housing is high and the house price income ratio is high, which has caused new citizens, young people, some local low -income groups and local rural relocation. Residents are not only unable to buy a house in the city, but also facing outstanding problems such as crowded residence and excessive pressure on rental expenditures, and further suppress the effective release of potential housing demand.

Reporter: As a pillar industry, what role does real estate play in the stable economy?

Yu Xiaofen: Since 2009, my country's real estate industry has maintained GDP above 5%, and in 2021, Zhejiang's real estate industry accounts for 7.21%of GDP. Real estate plays a very important role in the stable economic market: In the "three -driving carriage" that drives the economy, real estate spans two major departments of investment and consumption. Real estate investment is an important part of fixed asset investment. Inquiry consumption; the real estate industry has a large role in driving other industries. Using the data of the national investment and output table data in 2018, the output value of each unit of real estate in the real estate industry can drive the output value of 1.69 units in other industries.

In the current complex international background, the economy's economy should be more based on investment and consumption in its country. Real estate is both an investment department and a consumer department. It can also play a role in stabilizing the economy. It should be actively supported.

However, it must be emphasized that the premise of supporting real estate development is to implement "housing and not frying" and can no longer go back to the old road. Governments of various local governments must adhere to the "stable price promotion" -the stable house price, stable price, and stable expectations; promote investment scale and promote the amount of payment. In this regard, local governments must have a sober understanding. While encouraging residents to consume reasonable housing consumption, they must adhere to the "housing do not fry" and "three stability".

Reporter: Is the real estate policy continuously continuously, does it mean that the policy loosening period has begun?

Yu Xiaofen: I don't use the "policy loosening period", because it is easy to cause misunderstandings. This policy adjustment is a correction of the past macro -control policies. It is the unchanged goal to maintain market stability as much as possible. Do not understand that "policy loosening" means that the government has a rough market to promote the market.

Of course, we know that it is difficult to maintain market stability and neutrality, and slight fluctuations will inevitably occur in the middle.

We must be alert to repeating the surge in 2016, we must adhere to the "three stability". Recently, I participated in multiple symposiums. Enterprises concentratedly reported that high housing prices, high -rent, exacerbated labor difficulties, fascinating, and expensive workers. I believe that governments at all levels will do a good job of market monitoring and accurate policies, which will prevent the market from fluctuating excessive downward, but also to prevent market fluctuations.

Reporter: What should I pay attention to in the next step of policy formulation and implementation?

Yu Xiaofen: In this round of policy formulation and policy implementation, under the premise of implementing "housing and not frying", we must adhere to the goal of "three stability" and focus on supporting reasonable housing consumption, especially the first set and improvement of sexual needs. Adhere to the prudent management of real estate finance to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry. details as follows:

First, there is still room for relaxation of personal housing mortgage loans. Financial measures are the most effective tool for regulating the real estate market. However, in the process of implementation, the banking department should do a good job in financial management and strictly review the solvency of the "low down payment" households' solvency. Second, actively play the role of housing provident fund. Further expand the coverage of the provident fund, appropriately reduce the first payment ratio of the first -time housing provident fund loan, increase the loan support quota, and actively promote the securitization of the provident fund.

Third, due to the policy of the city, local policies stimulated the demand. For cities with large amounts of inventory and downturn in commercial housing, policies such as housing purchase coupons, house purchase subsidies, and tax subsidies can be issued, and the demand for housing for houses and urban and rural residents can be supported. It can increase the transformation of old dangerous houses and the work of demolition in urban villages.

Fourth, increase the construction of affordable housing to ensure the basic needs of the masses.

Fifth, increase the cultivation of regional housing companies. The development of the real estate market in my country has shown increasingly strong regional differences. Only companies that deeply cultivate areas can deeply understand market characteristics and better prevent risks. From the perspective of the "thunder" situation of housing companies in this round, the impact of the debt crisis in large -scale housing companies on the economic society is much greater than regional small and medium -sized housing companies. Governments of various local governments should support regional real estate companies to follow the road of brand quality development and the road of integrity operations. I suggest to establish a more complete real estate enterprise credit system, and jointly manage information with the construction enterprise projects on time and quality of the product, incorporate the "credit score" of real estate enterprises into the front conditions of land acquisition, and urge real estate enterprises to operate honestly.

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