Global central bank observation 丨 The trend of interest rate hikes continues, global inflation is difficult to cool in the short term, China is still an important capital depression in the world.

21st Century Business Herald reporter Shu Xiaoting Beijing Beijing report

Consumers have a decline in long -term inflation in the United States. On July 15, local time, data released by the University of Michigan in the United States showed that the July consumer confidence index rose from the record low in June to 51.1, an increase of 2.2%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 37.1%. Consumers expect that the median inflation rate in the next year will be 5.2%, which will not change much compared with the forecast of the past five months. %Range.

After the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index was announced, the market's expectations of the Fed's 100 -basis point in July in July. Since March this year, considering the employment and inflation of the United States, the Fed has raised a total of 150 basis points three times in a row. Among them Since 1994, the maximum interest rate hike has been raised.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike rhythm is more aggressive than in the past, mainly due to continuous high inflation. Since June last year, the U.S. inflation rate has continued to be higher than 5%, which has repeatedly set a record high. The latest data released by the US Labor Statistics on July 13 shows that the United States CPI rose 9.1%year -on -year in June this year, the largest year -on -year increase since November 1981, and rose 1.3%month -on -month. Among them, in June, energy prices rose 41.6%year -on -year, the largest year -on -year increase since April 1980; food prices rose 10.4%year -on -year, the largest year -on -year increase since February 1981. After eliminating the price of energy and food, the core CPI in the United States rose 5.9%year -on -year.

Shao Yu, chief economist of Oriental Securities, said in an interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that it was difficult to see the top of the United States and the world in the short term. This is mainly due to the impact of the supply of short -term geopolitical conflicts, but also the challenges faced by medium and long -term globalization, and the structural adjustment caused by the green inflation caused by energy transformation.

Judging from the current situation, Shao Yu said that under the guidance of the Fed's interest rate hike, global monetary policy entered a tightening cycle, and inflation is expected to be maintained at a high level when the demand formed and exacerbated the downward pressure on the economy. In the future, the world may fall into the dilemma of "stagnation". For some emerging economies with weak fundamentals, in the background of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, the economic and financial risks caused by the depreciation of the local currency and the escape of capital fugitives are faced.

Global inflation and high fever difficult to retreat

"The prices of eggs and pork for making Mexican corn rolls have risen, but the price of a Mexican corn roll is still around 15 pesos." The corn rolls have been reported to the 21st Century Business Herald for more than three years.

ARAM, a local resident of Tellaerpan Olympic Street, Coskan District, Mexico, told reporters that oil prices rose about 2 pesos/liters.

At present, due to factors such as rising food and energy prices, most countries around the world generally face high inflation challenges. According to the latest data from the Statistics Bureau of various countries, the inflation rates in the G20 countries are in 14 -10%of countries. Specifically, the inflation rates of Turkey, Argentina, and Russia are 78.62%, 64%, and 15.9%, respectively, ranking among the top three, Brazil and Spain's inflation rates are higher than 10%. 8.6%, 7.99%in Mexico, 7.01%India, and 2.5%in Japan and China.

Zhang Manan, deputy minister of the US and European Research Department of China International Economic Exchange Center, told the 21st Century Business Herald that the short -term factor of pushing the global inflation is mainly: geopolitical conflicts have pushed up international oil prices. The cumulative effect, especially the large -scale fiscal stimulus and rescue plans, has caused increased domestic demand to promote the upward price.

Fang Ming, director of the Global Financial Strategy Laboratory of Southwest University of Finance and Economics, also pointed out that both developed economies and emerging economies are facing greater inflation pressure. The common factor of pushing high inflation is the following aspects: In the early stage The depreciation of the US dollar and the flood of liquidity; geopolitical factors such as Russia and Ukraine's tight situations have led to the surge in the price of commodities in the world; the demand for the ease of the epidemic impact and the economic recovery is boosted.

The difference in inflation is that in addition to the risk of decline in commodity prices in developed countries, the inflation pressure of developed countries mainly comes from the flood of liquidity caused by quantitative loose monetary policy and zero interest rate or negative interest rate policy, as well as the corresponding financial market and real estate price bubble bubble bubble The inflation pressure of emerging market economies mainly comes from the impact of the recovery of the economic cycle on inflation.

From the perspective of specific areas, Fang Ming said that the inflation pressure of Asian countries is relatively mild, and the inflation pressure of Latin American countries is relatively high. The system is relatively sound and has a high foreign exchange reserve, and the currency exchange rate is generally relatively stable; Latin American countries generally have large frequent account deficits, the fiscal and financial system is relatively fragile, and the depreciation of the currency exchange rate at the appreciation of the US dollar is relatively large.

Regarding the follow -up trend of global inflation, Fang Ming pointed out that global inflation pressure may gradually decline from July, and winter may rebound. He explained that from the perspective of supply, the impact of the epidemic on the global supply chain has declined, and geopolitical influence still exists, and the supply of energy in winter may face large pressure. Rising sharp interest rates to rising the central banks of various countries may lead to the turbulent and economic growth rate of the global financial market. The decline in demand may lead to a decline in the price of commodities, which will cause inflation to decrease pressure. Moreover, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and exiting quantitative easing monetary policy, the trend of appreciation of the US dollar is obvious, which will drive the price of commodities to fall, which will lead to decline in inflation pressure. Zhang Monan said that global inflation has entered a structural and long -term channel, and it is unlikely to see it in the short term. This judgment mainly considers three factors.

First of all, the decoupling of China, near -shore, anti -globalization, and the rising structural costs caused by the supply chain and security considerations caused by supply chain autonomy and security considerations. In inflation, it will gradually appear in the next few years, thereby exacerbating the refractory of global inflation.

Secondly, due to the consideration of climate change and energy security, there have been more than 100 countries and regions to propose the goal of carbon neutrality, and some countries have slowed in investment and financing of traditional fossil energy. Under the current geopolitical conflict, the EU's main pipeline "Beixi-1", which has imposed 7 rounds of sanctions on Russia, and Russia's gas pipeline to Europe. High. Even if the subsequent geopolitical conflicts are eased, the supply gap caused by the energy crisis has eased, and the green inflation caused by energy transformation will continue to affect the global inflation level. As far as the current development is concerned, compared with the high cost of traditional energy input, the income is slow, the income is slow, and the scale effect is not yet formed. In the process of energy transformation, the problem of green inflation in the vacuum period of new and old energy is even more prominent.

Furthermore, many countries worldwide enter the era of aging and declining childization. In the future, the lack of laborer population in the future and rising labor costs may form a global phenomenon. Excessive inflation.

Tighten the impact of monetary policy influence geometry

The European Central Bank will hold a meeting this week, and it is expected to start the first interest rate of interest rates since 2011. Since March last year, Brazil and other Latin America countries have launched the interest rate hike cycle one after another, and India, South Korea, and the Philippines in Asia have also raised interest rates. Canada has exceeded 100 basis points on July 14th. The first country to raise interest rates in the country.

On the whole, more than 75 central banks in the world have started the interest rate hike process. Among the G20 countries, the current benchmark interest rates in Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, and India ranks among the top six, reaching 52%, 14%, 13.25%, 9.5%, 7.75%, and 4.9%, respectively.

Zhang Moan told reporters that the interest rate hike process around the world is expected to continue until next year. It is unlikely to step on interest rate hikes and brakes this year, but the rhythm of the interest rate hike rhythm of the economy, employment, and inflation will slow down.

"The US dollar is the benchmark for other currency pricing." Fang Ming pointed out that as the Fed raised its interest rates sharply, the US dollar would inevitably appreciate, and the exchange rate of other countries will depreciate sharply. The euro fell below the US dollar, and it may return to a historic low of 0.825 in the future.

In contrast, China's financial market is relatively stable, the capital account is not fully open, coupled with strong economic power, the RMB exchange rate is relatively stable, but in the future, it will still face the pressure of the RMB depreciation brought by the US dollar appreciation and the pressure of capital outflow. For countries with large external dependence, relatively fragile financial systems, and severe financial market bubbles, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the US dollar appreciation, the financial crisis may occur, and funds have depreciated sharply. "In the future, under the trend of tightening global interest rate levels, global capital will return to the United States and return to other countries with stable financial markets, such as China and Singapore." Fang Ming said.

According to Kristalina Georgieva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), spoke on July 16, emerging markets and developing countries have experienced continuous capital outflow for 4 consecutive months.

Recently, the US dollar index has continued to soar. Shao Yu believes that the US dollar index may exceed 110 in the future. In this regard, Zong Liang, chief researcher of the Bank of China Research Institute, told reporters that the US dollar index was regarded as the vane of the US dollar appreciation or depreciation, but in fact the US dollar index mainly measures the exchange rate change of 6 currencies such as the US dollar against the euro, yen, and pound Its rising and falling does not mean the rise and fall of the US dollar against global currency value, but it is easy to produce adverse expectations and market panic, causing other countries to face the depreciation of the local currency and capital outflow pressure.

"This is due to the influence of the US dollar as the function of international reserve currency," Zongliang suggested that in order to hedge the spillover impact of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, countries such as Asia and other regions can properly implement monetary policy according to the reasonable rhythm of regional cooperation., Instead of simply following the US interest rate hike, thereby ensuring the stability of economic and financial stability in the region, and then it is conducive to maintaining the stability of the global capital market.At the same time, relying on capital control and adjustment of settlement currency, weakening a widespread connection with the US dollar.Regarding the trend of cross -border capital flow in the future, Zong Liang believes that the Asia -Pacific region, including China, is still an important capital depression, including China.

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