Han Yongwen: The goal of about 5%of the annual economic growth rate is still expected to achieve highly vigilant input inflation in the second half of the year

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Paying Wing Flying Intern Zhan Chunyang Beijing Report

On July 18th, in the 154th period of "Economic Monthly" held by the China International Economic Exchange Center, Han Yongwen, deputy director of the China International Economic Exchange Center, pointed out that the epidemic is still the biggest uncertainties in economic development and need to avoid the epidemic situation. Policy synthesis is generated between preventing and control and economic development. The macroeconomic policies in the second half of the year should focus on adjusting employment and expanding consumption in the second half of the year, and further stabilize infrastructure construction investment to prevent input -type inflation. If there is no big epidemic impact, a significant economic growth will occur in the second half of the year, and the annual target is expected to achieve about 5%of economic growth.

Adjust policy: Coordinate the prevention and control of epidemics and economic development

Han Yongwen pointed out that in the first half of this year, the economy showed a good development trend in various aspects, mainly reflected in the faster recovery of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, active changes in demand recovery, foreign trade exports maintained positive growth, employment has improved. The industrial structure continues to optimize and upgrade.

Regarding the economic trend in the second half of the year, he said that in late May, the State Council issued the "Policy and Measures for the Economic Package Stable Economy". The policy has been implemented with a certain period of time, and the existing policy landing efforts are required. It is expected that it will be next. A series of new policies have been introduced to further accelerate economic recovery.

"If there is no large -scale rebound in the epidemic, it is expected that the economy will achieve a significant increase in the next two quarters, and it will increase the annual economic growth of about 5%of the annual economic growth." Han Yongwen said.

What are the difficulties and challenges of economic development in the second half of the year? He emphasized that the epidemic is still the biggest factor that affects the economy, and the possibility of unavailable epidemic rebound again. In addition, my country's economic development still faces an international environment with complexity and severe and uncertainty. Domestic stable growth, employment, stable prices, and expanding demand are facing new challenges.

Han Yongwen said that there are still uncoordinated or disadvantaged phenomena in terms of balancing epidemic prevention and control, stabilizing social order, and coordinated economic development. We should conscientiously summarize the lessons and lessons in the past three years, scientifically coordinate the dialectical relationship between the two, pay attention to strengthening the coordination and coordination between the public health management department and the macroeconomic decision -making department, avoid the new characteristics of policy synthesis, and according to the new characteristics of the epidemic mutation and spread , Scientifically use big data technology to reduce the negative overflow effects generated by the normal operation of the economy as much as possible.

Expand domestic demand: boost market confidence to promote consumption

According to data released by the central bank, from January to May, the increase in residents' savings was as high as 7.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 50.6%year -on -year, which was much higher than the same period last year. At the same time, residential loans increased by 1.33 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.4 trillion yuan from the same period last year, and below the average level in the past 5 years.

Han Yongwen analyzed that the current willingness to recover from residents is increasing, but it will be subject to the weakening of market expectations. The epidemic has continued to impact for a long time, the revenue of residents is expected to decline, the expenditure is more cautious, the prevents savings increase, and the reduction of loan consumption is not conducive to the increase in consumption recovery.

He pointed out that the continuous impact of the epidemic is also increasing employment pressure. As the main force of attracting employment, small and medium -sized enterprises have been affected by the impact of poor industrial chain supply chain in the past three years and the continuous rise in upstream raw material prices. Market demand has shrunk and squeezed profitable space and employment growth space.

In this regard, Han Yongwen emphasized that we must do everything possible to boost market confidence and boost consumption. For the continuously hit offline consumption service industry, the current production and operation is urgently needed to be restored. It is necessary to actively support and orderly restore offline goods retail, catering, accommodation, cultural entertainment, tourism and other services, stabilize market entities, stabilize market consumption , Stable employment channels.

"Recently, many places have issued consumer vouchers through various forms to promote consumption recovery and support service enterprises to resume work. This form should be carefully summarized, actively promoted, and optimized the distribution and use structure." Han Yongwen believes that the central and local governments need to need Give targeted policy subsidies so that consumer coupons can be tilted more towards low -income groups, especially difficult groups.

He pointed out that there are some situations that disrupt the order of consumer consumption in the process of boosting market confidence. For example, after the purchase tax of some passenger vehicles at the end of May, individual automobile manufacturers or sales companies adjust the promotion policy offset the tax reduction effect; After the central government launched the policy of rented state -owned housing and exemption for small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, some localities were poorly implemented. This reflects the real problems of good policy implementation and still need to increase its efforts.

In order to restore a good business environment, Han Yongwen suggested that special rectification actions of the consumer market environment should be carried out, government supervision and inspection and market inspections should be strengthened, and various interception distortions and the effects of rushing policies in the implementation of policies should be actively corrected.

At the same time, Han Yongwen said that local governments have made great investment in helping enterprises this year, and their finances are easy to eat. In this case, if you want to alleviate the pressure of fiscal rescue and even resolve employment, you must continue to play the role of government infrastructure investment, stabilize government consumption expenses, expand public consumption investment, and increase government purchase services. Indirect and direct formation of social consumption expenses can also expand public expenses by transferring payment to support local consumption growth.

"In the case of new uncertain factors and environmental suppression of consumption and export growth, it is still important to increase government investment and maintain high investment and effective growth." Han Yongwen said. He added that he should also pay attention to relying on government investment to guide market investment and social investment, especially through government investment to stabilize economic growth, form good expectations, increase the growth of advanced and high -end manufacturing industries for manufacturing, and for future economic and social economy and society. Development provides stronger motivation.

Stable price: prevent input inflation risk

On July 17, officials of the International Monetary Organization (IMF) stated that due to the deterioration of economic prospects, the IMF will significantly reduce the expectations of global economic growth in a new round of review this month, which will be the third time in the IMF year.

Han Yongwen said that this year, the global economy is probably stagnant, the global economic growth continues to decline, and the economy of developed countries may fall into a decline. Calling overseas demand will not be conducive to the further return of my country's exports, which will affect the steady economic pace.

In China, the pressure of stable prices to prevent inflation has continued to rise. The uncertain factors for rising prices are increasing. Taking pork as an example, pork prices have continued to rise since June. In the end of the second quarter, the pig stock column decreased by 1.9%year -on -year. In addition, the shortage of grain supply in the international market has risen sharply. After, the number of outlets in the later period will decrease.

Han Yongwen also said that for the domestic market, especially midstream and downstream companies, it has continued to digest the pressure of overseas inflation and input for one year, especially the majority of small and medium -sized enterprises to endure the pressure of continuous increase in prices in the long period of time. The mouth is increasing. The inflation rate of developed countries has continued to rise, and the price of commodities in the international market has risen, which has put huge pressure on my country's market prices in stability, and may raise market expectations for rising prices.

In this regard, in the second half of the year, we must strictly prevent input -type inflation and attach great importance to stable market prices. Han Yongwen suggested:

The first is to take measures to stabilize the price of pigs and the market price of pork, and take reserves adjustment and supply and demand adjustment in a timely manner to increase market supply and prevent the price of pigs and pork excessively rising.

The second is to do a good job of energy protection, release advanced coal production capacity, implement coal clean production, stabilize the price of coal supply, dispatch coal power supply, improve the basic efficiency of coal power generation, balance industrial electricity, service industry power and civilian electricity during high temperature periods Supply relationship.

The third is to reduce the price of bank funds. In the second half of the year, it is necessary to turn policies to accelerate the stock of existing monetary flow. For small and medium -sized enterprises, the focus of monetary policy is to reduce interest rates appropriately.

Han Yongwen specially analyzed this. From the data released by the People's Bank of China recently, the current currency supply has grown rapidly, and the market liquidity is relatively abundant. At the end of June, M2 increased by 11.4%. In the same period last year, an increase of 3.2 trillion yuan, highlighting the problem is not insufficient money supply. You can consider slowing down the deposit reserve rate and expanding the progress of bank currency supply, promote the transformation of existing stock currency to the real economy, and effectively solve corporate funds loan. Insufficient question.

He said that in the first half of the year, a considerable number of enterprises, especially some small, medium and micro enterprises, were not willing to loan. Although the market interest rate has lowered the market interest rate on the basis of implementing active monetary policy this year, the range is very limited. According to statistical data, the market interest rate is still about 4.5%. In addition It is still extremely difficult.

"When small and medium -sized enterprises face the sharp decline in funding to withstand the ability to withstand funds, they will appropriately reduce some loan interest rates, which will help effectively alleviate the problem of expensive financing, dare not loan, and unwilling to loan. Stress prompt monetary funds to enter the business field of production and commercial circulation, and form a virtuous circle of financial markets and the development of the real economy. "Han Yongwen said.

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