When can the online car rental be allowed to drive the taxi taxi?Ji Xuehong, Professor of Northern University of Technology: This day is not far from us

"Once the autonomous driving technology is mature, the online ride will allow the robotaxi (autonomous taxi taxi), and this day is not far from us." On July 15th, the 2022 beautiful travel Maas salon hosted by the Daily Economic News hosted by the Daily Economic News In the speech, Ji Xuehong, director and professor of the North University of Technology's Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center, said in his speech that once the driverless taxi is successful, and it can truly solve the problem of long -tail effects, it will show obvious cost advantages.

In the speech, Ji Xuehong not only sorted out and analyzed the current status and market pattern of the current online car entry industry, but also boldly predicted the development prospects and competition situation of new formats such as autonomous driving taxis. Ji Xuehong believes that the expansion of the scale of online car rental will actually bring a decline in passenger car sales, which means that the impact of driverless taxis on car sales will exceed the online car.

Ji Xuehong

Opportunities and challenges coexist with challenges

According to statistics from the online car supervision information interactive platform, as of May 31, 2022, a total of 274 online car rental platform companies in the country obtained the online car rental platform operation permit, which increased by 4 month -on -month; Thousands of vehicle transportation permits were 1.762 million copies, an increase of 3.9%and 0.5%respectively.

While online car ride enters the fast lane, it is also accompanied by great challenges. Ji Xuehong believes that the amount of issuance of the driver's license and the volume of the vehicle transportation certificate is still unbalanced. Corresponding to the regulatory policy of the "one car, one certificate", the "compliance" task of online car rental is still arduous. This is an online car rental. One of the important challenges of the industry.

In addition, the impact of the epidemic on the travel market is also accompanied by, which also makes the development of the online car rental industry full of variables.

"Through the statistics of the Ministry of Communications, we can see that the growth trend of online car rental in the past two years has been affected by the epidemic." Ji Xuehong said that about a quarter of the online ride -hailing car actually withdrawn from the market in that month. Some rental vehicles are refunded in the library, and there are also a few part -time online car drivers who have failed to sell orders in the month.

The order volume and rental rate of rental vehicles are also affected. According to the data of the China Urban Public Transport Association, the average rental rate of rented vehicles is only 71.3%. Ji Xuehong said that this phenomenon is mainly caused by factors such as epidemic conditions and insufficient user needs.

"The survey showed that the average monthly working day of the online car driver was 26 days, of which 36.1%of the online car drivers were online for more than 12 hours; 75%of drivers flowed between 6500 and 14,000 yuan." It is believed that the low revenue of online car drivers has also caused another key reason for the above phenomenon.

In this context, based on the cost of operating costs, more and more online car drivers choose electric models.

"With the popularity of electric vehicles, the advantages of its operating costs will be further played. More and more online car drivers are also willing to choose electric vehicles for daily operations. In addition, the trend of customization of online car entries will become more and more obvious. "Ji Xuehong said.

Robotaxi or go to the road in 2025

In fact, with the arrival of the 5G era, autonomous driving is becoming an important keyword for future travel. For example, new business models such as autonomous driving taxis (Robotaxi) are also brewing in travel scenes.

"Compared with the previous two years, the obvious changes in autonomous driving taxis were that the driver began to leave the position of the main driver, entered the co -driver, and even entered the back row. The next development direction was to achieve no one in the car. It is indeed rapid progress. "Ji Xuehong said.

Right now, Baidu's radish running, Wenyuan Zhixing, Xiaoma Zhixing, Didi and other travel companies have launched a layout in the field of autonomous taxis. Among them, radish running has realized commercial travel services in four cities in Beijing, Chongqing, Yangquan and Wuhan; Pony Zhixing also announced that it has obtained the demonstration operation of Guangzhou taxi. The charging operation and a certain price standard of Guangzhou taxi are used.

With the first step in commercialization of autonomous driving taxis, CICC analysis believes that L4 -level autonomous driving technology under urban road conditions is expected to be realized during 2025 ~ 2030. In this regard, Ji Xuehong added: "Even in this period of time, it means that autonomous driving is not very far away from us."

The rapid iteration of autonomous driving technology directly promoted the accelerated landing of Robotaxi and the driverless taxi industry. Ji Xuehong believes that once the driverless taxi is successful, and it can really solve the problem of long -tail effects in technology, it will show obvious cost advantages.

For example, Ji Xuehong said that the cost of a Baidu Apollo Moon driverless taxi is about 480,000 yuan, which is calculated in 5 years based on one -way operation. The cost of operation and maintenance is about 1,000 yuan (centralized power exchange and insurance and operation and maintenance), and the total operating cost of a single month is 9,000 yuan, which is less than 240,000 yuan in online models (a single monthly operating cost of 12,000 yuan).

"Compared to online car rental, driverless taxis have eliminated human drivers, and their unit costs will decline significantly. Even after considering the high cost background monitoring network system, after the scale of driverless taxis expands, the scale of driverless taxis expands, and the scale of driverless taxis expands, and the scale of driverless taxis expands, and the scale of driverless taxis expands.The above costs are also very easy to amortized. "Ji Xuehong said that once autonomous driving technology is mature, existing online ride -hailing will let the robotaxi, which is the law of economic.In addition, the realization of unmanned taxis may further reduce the number of private car purchases.Ji Xuehong said that in recent years, data shows that the expansion of the scale of online car rental has actually brought a decline in the sales of passenger car. The scale of its development scale has a negative correlation with domestic vehicle sales, which affects about -10%.According to the statistics of Wen Yuanzhi, 46%of Robotaxi consumers believe that the popularity of autonomous driving will reduce one private car, and 43%of people even choose not to buy private cars, which means that unmanned taxis pairs for taxis right pairsThe impact of car sales will exceed the online car.

Daily Economic News

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