Latest interest rate release!What signal was released in July LPR "without moving the soldiers"?

On July 20, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Bank of China Interbank Borrowing Center to announce that on July 20, 2022, the loan market quotation interest rate (LPR) was: one -year LPR was 3.7%, and the LPR of more than 5 years was 4.45%. The last period was flat.

Experts believe that, under the background of the interim borrowing facilities (MLF) interest rates that have not been adjusted and the net interest difference between commercial banks, LPRs are not in line with market expectations.

Picture source: China Currency Network

The quotation foundation has not changed

Industry experts said that if the MLF interest rate remains unchanged, the possibility of LPR adjustment in the month is relatively small. Earlier, the People's Bank of China had continued to do MLF in July, and the operating interest rate has not changed, which means that the foundation of LPR quotation in the month has not changed.

From the perspective of banking, the probability of LPR quotes in the short term of net interest deviation in commercial banks is not high. Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that in recent years, the net interest difference between commercial banks has been in a downward channel. Since the second quarter, under factors such as the lower limit of the "deposit regularization", the lower limit of the interest rate of the first home loan, and the significant decline of the LPR quotation of more than 5 years, the newly issued corporate loan interest rate and mortgage loan interest rate decline is large, the deposit interest rate The decline is lower than the loan interest rate, and the net interest margin of commercial banks is expected to show a downward trend.

From the perspective of internal factors, macro data in June showed that the economy was significantly repaired, and there was no need for LPR to decline this month. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, believes that macro data in June shows that the growth rate of consumption, investment and industrial production has been fully transferred, and economic restoration has accelerated. At the same time, the transaction data of the national real estate market in June has improved.

From an external environment, it is also preferred to maintain LPR stability this month. Wen Bin believes that the US inflation data continues to be high, the currency tightening process is accelerated, and the stable domestic monetary policy helps to take into account both internal and external balance.

Continue to release LPR reform efficiency

Although LPR has not declined this month, the current comprehensive financing cost of enterprises is still steadily decreasing. Ruan Jianhong, director of the Department of Investigation of the People's Bank of China, introduced that in June, in June, the interest rate of new corporate loans was 4.16%, which was 34 basis points lower than the same period last year.

"The market -oriented adjustment mechanism for deposit interest rates in April is expected to continue to play a key role. Considering that deposits account for about 70 % of the bank liabilities, this will drive the cost of bank liabilities to decline significantly." Wang Qing said.

Zou Lan, director of the Department of Monetary Policy of the People's Bank of China, said that in the next stage, the People's Bank of China will continue to deepen the market -oriented reform of interest rates, continue to release the effectiveness of LPR reform, give play to the role of the market -oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates, give full play to the role of the self -discipline mechanism of interest rates, and maintain the market well The competitive order has promoted continuing to reduce the actual loan interest rate, so that the majority of market entities can feel the real decline of comprehensive financing costs.

"On the whole, the steady monetary policy will continue to adopt the 'total+structural tool' to focus on stable employment, stable prices and preventive risks. While ensuring that the total amount is reasonable and stable Support. "Zhou Maohua, an analyst of the Financial Market Department of Everbright Bank, believes that relevant departments will continue to maintain the normal competitive order of the deposit market, guide bank financial institutions to strengthen asset -liability management, tap LPR reform potential, effectively reduce the cost of comprehensive financing of the real economy, alleviate the pressure of enterprise operating pressure Essence

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