728 Politburo Meeting Eight CPPCC full interpretations

Zhang Aoping/Wen

The focus of this article:

1. The general tone of the future economic work: adhere to the stability of progress, the epidemic should be defended, the economy must be stabilized, and the development must be safe. Stable employment and stable prices are the top priority of economic work in the second half of the year;

2. Regarding the prevention and control of the epidemic: It is necessary to efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development, and adhere to the dynamic clearance. The prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development are not a matter of two choices. It is necessary to ensure the orderly operation of key functions that affect economic and social development;

3. Regarding macro policies: Actively actively actively actively enhance the needs of social needs. The efforts of subsequent policy operations should be transformed from wide currencies (increasing basic currency) to wide credit (physical use currency), that is, private enterprise financing development, residents' loan consumption;

4. Regarding stability: We must strengthen food security and improve energy resources supply and guarantee capabilities. Food and energy security are both an important foundation for economic security and the focus of stability;

5. Regarding real estate: stabilize the real estate market, compact local government responsibilities, keep interactive buildings, and stabilize people's livelihood. The current real estate is not only a single industry issue, but also a problem of economic development, which requires high attention;

6. Regarding the platform economy: Implement normalized supervision, and focus on the launch of a number of "green lights" investment cases. The focus of the follow -up work will be to support the healthy development of the platform economy standardized while implementing normalized supervision;

7. Regarding market entities: Let state -owned enterprises dare to work, dare to break through, foreign companies dare to invest. It is necessary to give full play to the initiative of enterprises and entrepreneurs to create a good policy and institutional environment;

8. Regarding the employment of key groups such as college graduates. Compared with other economic goals throughout the year, the most important goal is that the unemployment rate is within 5.5%.

The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 28 to analyze and study the current economic situation and deploy economic work in the second half of the year. The Politburo Meeting each quarter is the central government's setting of the quarterly economic operation, as well as the adjustment and guidance of macro policies, micro -policies, and industrial policies. It is the vane of quarterly economic work. Book), it has a decisive impact on the economic trend of the next quarter. In addition, at the end of July, the Politburo Conference held at the end of July has a key role in the year -on -year inheritance, and the set tone will often last until the end of the year.

In the second quarter, under the impact of a new round of internal epidemic, the outer geopolital division and the global high -inflation areas internally, through the complicated and severe development environment of the world, through efficient coordination of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, increased macro -policy regulation, and effectively implemented stability. Economic policies and measures, etc., strive to return economic operations to normal tracks, and keep the bottom line that does not stagnate (that is, no negative growth).

However, the current foundation of economic recovery is not firm, and it is at the key window of stabilizing and recovering. Economic operations in the second half of the year still face large uncertainty. Therefore, the policy signals released by the Politburo Conference at this year are particularly important.

The meeting of the Politburo responded comprehensively on the current concerns of the current market. Including: Is the epidemic prevention and control adhere to the "dynamic clearing"? 5.5%of the economic growth rate is expected to be reduced? The focus of economic work in the next stage? Is macro finance and monetary policy increase? Sub -policy orientation such as real estate and platform economy?

1. The general tone of the follow -up economic work: persist in steady progress, the epidemic should be defended, the economy must be stabilized, and the development must be safe.

In part of the judgment of the economic situation, first of all, the meeting believed that "in the face of complex and severe international environment and arduous and heavy domestic reforms and stability tasks", this is the overall judgment of the environmental environment of economic and social development this year, and it is difficult to explain.

Secondly, the meeting believed that "we effectively coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development, the epidemic prevention and control achieved positive results, and the economic and social development has achieved new achievements. We have made hard work in the country, and the achievements are fully affirmed." This is the epidemic in the first half of the year. The performance of prevention and control and economic work is fully affirmed.

In the end, the meeting believed that "the current economic operation is facing some outstanding contradictions and problems. It is necessary to maintain strategic determination and strengthen your own business." Clarify the follow -up economic work. , Maintaining strategic determination.

In the general tone of the subsequent economic work, the meeting emphasized that "do a good job of economic work in the second half of the year, we must adhere to the general tone of steady progress." Adhering to the stability of advancement, the three cores of persistence of the epidemic, the need to be stabilized, and the development of the economic work are the general tone and general requirements of economic work in the second half of the year.

In the subsequent economic work objectives, the meeting emphasized that "consolidating the trend of recovering the economy, focusing on stabilizing employment and stable prices, maintaining economic operations in a reasonable range, and striving to achieve the best results." In addition, the meeting requested that "the big economic province must be bravely picked up, and conditions for provinces with conditions must strive to complete the expected goal of economic and social development."

We believe that, first of all, although the expected target growth rate of 5.5%throughout the year is more difficult, it has not been clearly given up. It is mainly because the current economy has only achieved a month -on -month restoration, and it has not achieved a complete recovery. In the window, the stability of the economy still needs to maintain a sense of urgency in all aspects. Do not take it lightly and strive to achieve the best results. Conditional provinces should strive to achieve the expected goals. Secondly, the annual economic growth "4 contest 5" is the deserved meaning of maintaining economic operation in a reasonable range. Finally, stabilizing employment and stabilizing prices is the top priority of economic work in the second half of the year. 2. About the prevention and control of the epidemic: efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development, and adhere to the dynamic clearing zero

Since the beginning of this year, the upgrade of a new round of epidemic extension and epidemic prevention measures is undoubtedly the biggest constraints for economic growth. A large number of market entities have been upgraded due to the repeated epidemic and epidemic prevention measures, and production and operation activities are frequently blocked, which has caused the expected expectations and confidence in development. This is why this meeting puts the epidemic prevention and control in the front part.

The meeting pointed out, "It is necessary to efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. For the relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of the economic and social development, we must comprehensively look at, systematically, and in the long run, especially from politically, to calculate political accounts. Adhere to the people's supremacy, life first, adhere to external prevention input, internal prevention and rebound, and adhere to the dynamic clearance. If the epidemic situation occurs, it must be strictly controlled and controlled. New crown pneumonia prevention and control policy measures to ensure the orderly operation of key functions that affect economic and social development, and the guarantee should be maintained. "

On July 23, the State Council ’s joint prevention and control mechanism also clearly stated at a press conference that“ Recently, the local epidemic has shown a multi -point distribution and frequent extension. Complex. It is necessary to insist on the general policy of 'external defense input, internal defense rebound', and the general policy of the "dynamic clearing zero". The area where the epidemic is in the event should be treated with a gathering epidemic. The epidemic spreads. "

It can be seen that adhering to the "dynamic clearance" is still the general policy and premise of the implementation of the subsequent epidemic prevention and control policies, and must not be dishonest. However, before mentioning, we must more efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of economic and social development, and constantly find new dynamic balance points, establish a more scientific and accurate mechanism for preventing and controlling the long -term prevention and control of the epidemic.

In addition, the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development are by no means a two -choice issue. Each place must complete the task of economic and social development while doing a good job of preventing and controlling the epidemic, ensuring the orderly operation of key functions affecting economic and social development. Resolutely prevent the epidemic prevention and control singles one by one, one -size -fits -all, and eliminate layers.

3. Regarding macro policies: Actively act as an enlarged demand to effectively make up for the lack of social needs

The meeting clearly required the macro policy part, "Macro policies must actively act as an expansion of demand. Fiscal and monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs. Financial requirements," make good use of local government bond funds, support local governments to use sufficient use of sufficient use of local governments Good special debt limits. "In terms of currency," monetary policy must maintain reasonable liquidity, increase credit support for enterprises, and use policy banks to build investment funds for new credit and infrastructure construction. "

On June 29, the Executive Meeting of the State Council also pointed out that "the implementation of a good monetary policy, using structural monetary policy tools to enhance financial services to serve the real economy capabilities, and effectively help to stabilize the economic market and stabilize the people's livelihood."

From the perspective of the current economy of the economy, accompanied by the western developed economies such as the United States, in order to deal with the "violent" interest rate hikes in response to the forty years, the global demand will begin to decline significantly, and the overseas supply and demand gap narrows the narrowing of the gap in supply and demand. This will also be suppressed for exports of my country in the second half of the year, and the focus of stable growth falls on domestic demand, that is, investment and consumption.

At the end of the second quarter, the main reasons for the annual reimbursement of the economic realization was that government departments made up for economic activities, and macro fiscal and monetary policy cooperated with infrastructure investment (infrastructure investment in the first half of the year increased by 7.1%year -on -year, and an average of 1.8%year -on -year in the past two years). Stabilized the economic market. However, from the month -on -month restoration to realizing the real recovery, the private sector relays government departments, that is, corporate investment and residents' consumption efforts, and the economy achieves endogenous growth.

Resident consumption in the private sector changes with the expectations of income. Only residents' income is expected to improve can residents increase consumption. Increase is expected to be good, and the company needs to achieve investment development, and the premise of enterprises to achieve investment development is confidence in development. Therefore, the premise of the private sector is that the company has the confidence in development. The greater the confidence, the greater the effort, and otherwise.

We believe that under the premise of reasonable and moderate macro fiscal and monetary policy, it will not rush to turn, but will be more accurate and powerful, and will be more active in expanding effective demand. The efforts of subsequent policy operations should be transformed from wide currencies (increasing basic currencies) to wide credit (physical use currency), and the focus of wide credit at the moment is the use of currencies for private sectors, that is, the development of private enterprises and residents' loan consumption. This is also this is also this. The sub -meeting emphasized that "the fiscal and monetary policy must effectively make up for the lack of social needs".

In addition, if the black swan and gray rhinos that occur in the second half of the year have caused new downward pressure on the economy, or market entities, the expectations and confidence of the development of SMEs are still weak, the endogenous restoration of the economy is insufficient, and the monetary policy still has the monetary policy. Total and total tools are still in the policy toolbox, and structural policies will continue to make efforts. 4. About stability prices: To strengthen food safety guarantee and improve energy resources supply guarantee capabilities

The meeting pointed out that "to keep the safety bottom line in all aspects. We must strengthen food security, improve energy resources supply and guarantee capabilities, and increase efforts to plan and build a new energy supply digestive system." As mentioned above, "stable employment and stability" is the top priority of economic work in the second half of the year. Grain and energy security are both an important foundation for economic security and the focus of stability.

Judging from the specific data of inflation. First, the PPI (industrial producer's factory price index) representing upstream inflation rose 7.7%in the first half of the year. Among them, the first quarter rose by 8.7%, and the second quarter rose 6.8%. In terms of monthly, although the PPI rose and declined from the previous month, due to the higher base of the same period last year, the year -on -year increase continued to fall. In the long run, affected by geopolitical factors such as Russia and Ukraine conflicts, international energy and metal prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level, causing the price of relevant domestic industries to maintain a high level. The gradually emergence of domestic supply -stabilizing policy effects will continue to decline in price increases in coal and related industries. It is expected that the upstream inflation PPI will continue to fall in the second half of the year.

Secondly, the CPI (residential consumer price index) representing downstream inflation rose 1.7%in the first half of the year. Among them, the first quarter rose 1.1%, and the second quarter rose 2.3%. In June, with the stability of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the logistics gradually opened, and the CPI was flat. However, due to the lower base of the same period last year, the year -on -year increase in June expanded to 2.5%. It should be noted that the price of pork in June decreased by 6%year -on -year, and the decrease was sharply narrowed by 15.1 percentage points. The new round of pig cycle has been started, and the increase in food prices may continue to expand. It is expected that with the conduction of the price increase effect of some raw materials and the start of a new round of pig cycle, the CPI will achieve a moderate rise in the second half of the year. In addition, before the economy realizes endogenous growth, the core CPI that deducts food and energy prices may remain at about 1%.

Although the CPI increased by 2.5%year -on -year, there is still a large space for the upper limit of a mild inflation range of 2%-5%. The core CPI that deducts food and energy prices has been at a low level for a long time. This reflects that domestic demand is effective Insufficient demand, especially for residents' willingness to consume for a long time. We believe that while the supply side should continue to do a good job of guaranteeing and stabilizing and stable prices, we should appropriately improve the tolerance of inflation on the demand side, continue to implement expansion macro finance and monetary policy, increase stimulus effective demand, help entity realization to achieve realization Wide credit.

5. About real estate: stabilize the real estate market, compact local government responsibilities, keep interactive buildings, stabilize people's livelihood

The meeting pointed out that "It is necessary to stabilize the real estate market, adhere to the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, because the city has used a good policy box to support rigid and improved housing needs, compact local government responsibilities, protects the responsibility Drive the building and stabilize the people's livelihood. " Regarding the subsequent policy orientation of real estate, it is also placed in the "must keep the safety bottom line in all directions", which reflects that the current real estate is not only a single industry problem, but also the security issue of economic and social development. It requires great attention.

Although the real estate policy has gradually relaxed this year, such as the comprehensive mortgage interest rate reduction, the relaxation of the loan restriction and restriction policy, etc., more than 180 provinces and cities have introduced the loosening policy of the property market due to urban policies. However, from the perspective of data, the national real estate development investment in the first half of the year was 6831.4 billion yuan, a year -on -year decrease of 5.4%. The real estate market sales, land acquisition, construction, and completion data were still weak. In addition, the recent "suspension of loan storms" has continued to weaken the market expectations, and real estate sales have fallen sharply in July. Real estate is a serious dragging on this year's economy and an important risk factor for the current economic development.

The essential reason for the current status of real estate is that in recent years, when implementing the real estate regulation policy (such as the "three red lines"), the participants and market entities of the real estate industry have gradually formed. In the disadvantage of development, the achievement of high -quality development in China requires the rapid get rid of the dependence on real estate, tolerate the cognitive bias of the pain of transformation ", and ignores the importance of real estate to China's economy to achieve high -quality development. Regarding the importance of the real estate industry, it has been discussed in detail in previous articles, and I won't go into details (see: "Real estate, capital market, and platform economy, to seize the confirmation opportunity of 2022!").

While continuing to emphasize that housing housing does not stir -fry, this meeting puts forward "the policy of using a good policy box because of the city's strategies, supporting rigid and improving housing needs, compacting the responsibilities of local government, keeping intersection, stabilizing people's livelihood". It is a positive policy signal that reflects the importance and urgency of stabilizing real estate. It is expected that under the large framework of the city's policy, more localities will introduce more policies to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, and preservation of buildings and stability are also the responsibility of various local governments and need to be compacted.

6. Regarding the platform economy: Implement normalized supervision, focus on launching a number of "green lights" investment cases

The meeting pointed out that "to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the platform's economy, complete the special rectification of the platform economy, implement normalized supervision of the platform economy, and centralize a number of investment cases of 'green light'." The platform economy is the "science and technology real estate" after China entered the Internet era. Its proportion of the economy, the employment of high -end talents contributed by the economy, and the value created for the society are comparable to the real estate industry. However, since last year, the antitrust of the platform economy and setting up a "traffic light" for capital setting the cognitive bias of the market have produced a "comprehensive crackdown on the development of platform companies".

First of all, the essential reason for the platform economy antitrust and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital is that in recent years, the platform economic giants have controlled huge traffic, capital and user data. At the supply side, you can quickly make more optimized business models through strong capital strength. On the demand side, the optimized business model can be accurately given to users through the steady stream of user traffic and user behavior data. While achieving high -speed development, the following problems have also occurred:

First, in the competition, zero -sum games for the entire commercial value end are formed. The cost of sales rates after online squeezing online, and the cost of the online platform is much higher than the offline operating costs;

Second, the platform traffic is king, which has caused the phenomenon of "inferior coins to expel good coins" frequently, and fake and inferior products prevail;

Third, use the weaknesses of human nature to create products that are not conducive to the development of society;

Fourth, through the "bottom line" user data collection, big data is cooked to form a unilateral win -win situation rather than a win -win situation with consumers;

Fifth, after entering the era of stock competition, young practitioners have 996 and 007 internal rolls;

Sixth, through the strong capital and data advantages, cross -industry monopoly development, squeeze the healthy development of other companies in the industry.

However, during the 20 years in the Internet era in China, the development of the platform economy giants' unremitting efforts has gradually achieved the rush of China's backward business status in the industrial era. Business efficiency has solved a large number of high -end talent employment, expanded the scale of China's economy, and the development of the digital economy -related industries is inseparable from the drive of the platform economy.

Therefore, the policy intention of the platform economy antitrust is to solve some specific problems in the above development, and at the same time make the platform economy more healthy.

The meeting pointed out that "a batch of" green lights' investment cases "are concentrated. First of all, the cognitive deviation of the platform economy is corrected. Secondly, it is expected that specific policies that are conducive to the long -term sustainable and healthy development of the platform economy will gradually land.

On July 21, the Executive Meeting of the State Council pointed out that "the introduction of specific measures to support the healthy development of the platform's economic standards, guide platform enterprises to carry out inclusive financial business in accordance with laws and regulations, and give full play to the platform economy to create employment and promote consumption." Among them, the focus is on "giving full play to the platform economy to create employment and promoting consumption role", and once again affirmed the important role of the platform economy in various aspects of economic and social development.

It is expected that with the National Network Information Office on July 21, the special rectification of this round of economy will be completed after the State Cyber ​​Information Office fined RMB 8.026 billion yuan in a fine of 8.026 billion yuan. The focus of the follow -up work will be to support the healthy development of the platform economy standardized while implementing normalized supervision.

7. About market entities: let state -owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises, and foreign companies dare to invest

The meeting requested that "the initiative of enterprises and entrepreneurs should be used to create a good policy and institutional environment, so that state -owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises, and foreign companies."

At present, although the economy has achieved a month -on -month restoration, the market subject, especially the development of SMEs, has not fully recovered. This is the core "blocking point" of endogenous growth in the second half of the year. Because small and medium -sized enterprises contributed more than 50%of taxes, more than 60%of GDP, more than 70%of technological innovation, more than 80%of urban employment, and 90%of the number of market entities. Therefore, the problem of small and medium -sized enterprises is not only a problem of micro individuals, but also the biggest macro problem.

From the perspective of specific data, as the first -line indicator PMI for economic operation, 50.2%was recorded in June, and the expansion range was returned after four months (February 50.2%, March 49.5%, April 47.4%, May 49.6, May 49.6 %And June 50.2%) reflect that with the gradual improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the overall economic reimbursement is achieved.

However, from the perspective of large, medium, and small enterprises, large enterprises in June are in the expansion range, and medium -sized enterprises have returned to the expansion range, while small enterprises have continued to be in the contraction range since this year. Large -scale enterprise PMI is 50.2%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the last month, which is higher than the critical point. Last month rose by 1.9 percentage points, the level of prosperity improved, but it was still lower than the critical point.

In addition, the BCI (the operating status index of the Chinese enterprise in the Yangtze River Business School) in June was recorded by 42.9. Although it rebounded from 37.3 in May, it was still significantly lower than the watershed (50 is the watershed of the index. pessimistic). The corporate financing environment index also rebounded slightly from 40.9 in May to 44.3 in June, which is also lower than the watershed. Because BCI is more preferred to private small and medium -sized enterprises than PMI, it is composed of the company's sales forward -looking index, corporate profit forward -looking index, corporate financing environment index and corporate inventory forward -looking index. Confidence has not fully recovered. Recently, when we communicate with some small and medium -sized entrepreneurs, we often hear a sentence, "The heart is not as good as before." Although the enterprise accompanied the economy from the "bottom of the valley", it gradually started normal production and operation activities, but its heart, that is, confidence has not fully recovered, this is also the "sequelae" caused by the multi -round impact of more than two years. Sometimes economic data is objective "cold", but subjective feelings are difficult to measure but more realistic, but the power of this "invisible hand" is extremely powerful.

Since the beginning of this year, macro policies have continued to resume confidence in SMEs. It is recommended that all departments and localities start the "confidence to restore the war" as soon as possible. First of all, we must resolutely prevent the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the one -size -fits -all, and establish a long -term mechanism for preventing and controlling the epidemic situation according to the actual conditions of various localities, and be more scientific and precise. The subjective vitality and promote the entrepreneurial spirit; finally, from the perspective of the needs of the main body of the micro market, we must implement the policy of helping the enterprise's rescue volume policy. Give enterprises with multi -directional policy support to help market entities, especially small and medium -sized enterprises to restore confidence in future development.

The "key" that achieves endogenous growth in the economy is the development confidence of SMEs. As long as the most critical battle of the "confidence recovery war" of small and medium -sized enterprises, small and medium -sized enterprises' confidence to achieve the "V" rebound, and the current revision of the Chinese economy's current kinetic energy It will be transformed into a more powerful recovery potential.

At this meeting, it was proposed that "the policy and institutional environment of corporate and entrepreneurs' initiative and creating a good policy and institutional environment" was proposed to show that the positive attitude of policy surfaces does not allow small and medium -sized enterprises to continue to weaken. Market entities, small and medium -sized enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households should also pick up confidence in development and walk in front of the economic cycle curve.

8. Regarding stable employment: Do a good job in employment of key groups such as college graduates

The meeting emphasized that "we must do a good job in the guarantee of people's livelihood. We must strive to ensure the basic life of the people in difficulties and do a good job of employment in key groups such as college graduates."

From the perspective of specific data, although the unemployment rate of urban surveys nationwide in June fell to 5.5%(previous value 5.9%), the unemployment rate of young people aged 16-24 rose to 19.3%(previous value 18.4%), and repeatedly hit a new high Essence In addition, college graduates who have broken 10 million in July will focus on the labor market, and the pressure of stabilizing employment will increase significantly. This is also the reason why the meeting focused on the employment of "doing a good job in key groups such as college graduates".

However, market micro behaviors often lag behind the macroeconomic cycle, and the same is true of unemployment. When the epidemic impact was the worst, many companies stopped working, but there would be no large -scale layoffs at that time. When the economy has gradually entered the recovery and the company realizes the resumption of work, it is found that the new orders have decreased sharply. With the continuous deterioration of financial conditions, it will make up their minds to lay off layoffs. At this time, the unemployment rate will be greatly improved.

On July 7, the Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council hosted a seminar in the Southeast Coastal Provincial Government in Fujian, saying that "more than 160 million market entities are the toughness of my country's economy. "Broad".

On July 13, the executive meeting of the State Council pointed out that "employment is the top priority of people's livelihood and the important support for stable economic markets. Employment can create wealth and increase income, thereby driving consumption and stimulating economic growth." Continue to implement the policy of helping enterprises' rescues, open up the implementation point, and implement the packaging of social insurance premiums, stable return, and employment subsidies. "

In the second half of the year, compared with other economic goals throughout the year, the most important goal is that the unemployment rate is within 5.5%. In a complex and severe economic development environment, if the target of the unemployment rate can be kept, economic activities can operate normally. Even if the economic growth rate does not reach about 5.5%of the annual goals, it is also very successful. And small and medium -sized enterprises contribute 80%of the employment in the market. Stable employment must first stabilize SMEs. As long as small and medium -sized enterprises have sufficient development confidence, employment positions will achieve endogenous expansion.

On the whole, the Politburo meeting clearly released the strong demands of subsequent economic work on the realization of stable progress, and comprehensively responded to the general concern of the market. Under the general tone of stability, the epidemic to prevent, the economy must be stabilized, and the development must be safe, the economy will accelerate from a month -on -month restoration to a new round of recovery.

Looking forward, the economic cycle of developed countries such as China and the United States will be reversed again (IMF releases the world economic forecast in July 2022, and the forecast value of the growth rate of developed economies will be reduced to 2.5%and 2023 in 2022 in 20221.4%of the year).In addition, the 20th National Congress of the second half of the year will also actively deploy the future.Dongfang wants to know, and the scenery will be unique.What we need to do now is to pick up confidence in development and seize the certainty of the future!

(The author of the author Zhang Aopi Department of Extraction in this article)

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