How much has the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike since March this year?

[Global Times reporter Ni Hao] "Facing the most severe inflation pressure in 40 years, 12 members of the Federal Reserve passed 75 points in the second year of interest in the year." 75 basis points to the target range of federal funds to 2.25%-2.5%. This made a total of 150 basis points in June-July. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates four times since March this year, with a cumulative interest rate hike of 225 basis points during the year. The Wall Street Journal of the United States said that this is the most aggressive interest rate hike in the Federal Reserve since the 1980s. The four interest rate hikes during the year have been equivalent to their interest rate hikes from 2015 to 2018. Return to the level 3 years ago. The initial value of the actual GDP season in the second quarter of this year on the 28th of the United States was -0.9%, and it was recorded in the second quarter of consecutive quarters to enter the "technical recession". The Wall Street Journal states that continuous high inflation and high interest rates are shrinking the US economy, and consumers' emotions are being hit.

After the announcement of the interest rate hike decision, the three major stock indexes of the US stocks rose sharply, of which the Nasdaq index rose more than 4%, the largest single -day increase since 2020. Gold is significantly higher, the two -year US debt yield rebounded, approaching 3.07%, and the US dollar index fell. The analysis believes that the interest rate hike is in line with market expectations. At the press conference after the end of the interest rate interest, Fed Chairman Powell said "may slow down the rhythm of interest rate hikes in the future" and no longer give a clear guidance to the next interest rate hike. It depends on the performance of major economic data. This makes the market cool down on future interest rate hike expectations.

Fed Chairman Powell.

Powell also said at the press conference that the current US inflation rate is still much higher than the target level, and the task of the Federal Reserve is to deal with overall inflation. He also denied the decline of the US economy, emphasizing that the US labor market is very strong, demand is still strong, and the U.S. economy is still on the growth track this year. The latest data shows that the situation in the United States is still difficult to alleviate, and the inflation rate of 9.1%in June is the highest in 41 years.

Bloomberg reports that investors are now concerned about whether the Fed will slow down the rate hike at the next meeting in September, and whether the pressure of rising prices in the future will force the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates with extraordinary efforts. The Wall Street Journal states that the Federal Reserve will eventually increase the interest rate to what extent will rely on how consumers and businesses react when the monetary policy tighten.

Before and after the Fed's interest rate hike, many central banks around the world adjusted interest rates. The European Central Bank took the lead in raising interest rate hikes to run the Federal Reserve. The Bank of Canada also accidentally raised interest rate hikes. Most of the Gulf countries also chose to raise interest rates to varying degrees. The Hong Kong Monetary Administration has raised the benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points with the Federal Reserve.

How does the Fed ’s interest rate hike affect A shares and RMB? Wu Chaoming, deputy dean of the Caixin Securities Research Institute, analyzed the Global Times on the 28th that the Fed is expected to have a limited impact on A shares. One is that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes meet market expectations and have been digested by the market. The guidance of the post -rate hike path will slow down the rate of interest rate hikes in the future, which will weaken its impact on the domestic market. Third, the Chinese policy is loose and sustainable, and the economic fundamentals will continue to be repaired. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cannot dominate the trend of A shares.

In terms of impact on the RMB exchange rate, Wu Chaoming believes that although the Fed's interest rate hike will still cause Sino -US interest spreads to be in an inverted stage in the future, and the capital flow on the exchange rate constitutes a certain disturbance, the main factor dominated by the RMB exchange rate is the basic economy of the two countries. The relative changes of the surface. In the next period of time, China's economic margin is better and the downward pressure on the US economy has increased, RMB assets are strongly attractive, and the RMB exchange rate will be supported.

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