The key to whether economic growth can achieve the expected goal is consumption

The relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of the economic and social development efficiently

It is a key measure to promote consumption to rise and return to normal

Can China achieve the expected growth target of 5.5 % in the second half of this year? Most experts and institutions are more optimistic, and some even think that they can reach 5.5 % to 6.0 %. Obviously, a hypothesis was implied in their judgment, that is, the epidemic was effectively preventing and controlled, and the return of economic activities was normal. There are also cautious judgments that the economic growth rate is 4.5 % to 5 %, and no epidemic may have repeatedly, and the impact caused by it is unpredictable. They believe that according to the level of potential growth, the growth rate of more than 8 % in the second half of the year is very difficult. From the data in the first half of the year, whether the target of 5.5 % can be achieved mainly depends on whether the consumption has rebounded strongly.

In the first half of this year, China's GDP increased by 2.4 % year -on -year. Related data showed that the ultimate consumption was quite weak, the formation of capital was relatively soft, and net exports performed well. In the first half of the year, consumption and investment (capital formation) both contributed 0.8 percentage points, and net export contributed 0.9 percentage points. In the second quarter, due to the repeated emergence of the new crown epidemic in China and other regions, China's GDP growth fell to 0.4 %, and the stimulation of consumption, investment and net exports was -0.9, 0.3 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively. It can be seen that the second quarter was mainly due to the decline in consumption depth, resulting in a sharp decline in GDP growth from 4.8 % in the first quarter.

May wish to look at the general situation of the relationship between consumption, investment and net exports from 2019 before the outbreak of the epidemic, and then look at the severe degree of consumption in China at this stage. In 2019, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP was 58.6 %, capital was 28.9 %, and net exports were 12.6 %, which increased by 3.5, 1.7 and 0.7 percentage points respectively. From this, we can basically think that the final consumption contribution to growth is about 60 %. However, in the first half of this year, the final consumption contribution to growth was only 30 %, and it was negative in the second quarter. Therefore, in the second half of this year, whether economic growth can achieve the expected goal is mainly to depend on whether the contribution of consumption can return to normal.

Under normal circumstances, the main factor affecting consumption is income and price. In the present, income growth may mainly be that the government increases the transfer of low -income groups. Wage income, property income and operating income have a significant increase in the second half of the year, and the possibility is less likely. In addition to normal growth, the growth of transfer income, such as increasing pensions, is the generally incorporated money that some experts call for money, or pay money for low -income people. However, there are problems with this method now: First of all, the current pressure of fiscal revenue and expenditure contradictions is relatively large, where money is a problem; second, when the expected weakness is expected, the proportion of money issued to consumption will be reduced. Because low -income groups may deposit part of money to prepare from time to time. Nevertheless, under the serious impact of the epidemic, measures to increase the income of low -income groups by transferring payment are still a policy option, which can also drive some consumption.

The issuance of consumer vouchers has both the dual effects of income and price. Judging from the results of some cities, the results are relatively obvious. Consumer vouchers for deduction (discount) are significant for promoting the consumption of middle -income groups. On the one hand, the government can coordinate enterprises in some industries, especially state -owned commercial enterprises to issue deductible consumer coupons to drive consumption; they can also issue consumer coupons for low -income groups according to their own financial resources and actual needs. The cash issued may be converted into deposits and cannot directly drive consumption.

Under the current impact of the current epidemic, consumption is largely affected by epidemic prevention and control measures. Therefore, the relationship between the prevention and control of the epidemic and the development of the economic and social development is a key measure to promote consumption to rise and return to normal. First of all, under the general policy of "dynamic clearing zero", scientifically and accurately do a good job of preventing and controlling the epidemic. In operation, there is a scale grasp. The characteristics of contact -type life service industry should be considered to maximize the various consumer scenarios. Reality needs. Secondly, fully analyze and grasp the "pain points" and "blocking points" in the prevention and control of the normalization epidemic, to eliminate them to the maximum, so as to facilitate the consumption needs of the majority of residents to be realized.

At present, small and micro enterprises in the living service industry generally encounter difficulty in operating, making it difficult for them to meet the consumer needs of residents. In this regard, further dilemma should be taken. In addition, for a period of time, we have taken timely and effective treatment of departments and relevant personnel who have poor epidemic prevention and control, which is necessary. However, at the same time, it is necessary to increase the simplification of the epidemic prevention and control, "one -size -fits -all", and an increased inspection treatment to ensure that the measures for precise prevention and control are effectively implemented. It must be seen that the new coronal virus is likely to exist for a long time, and further developing more effective vaccines and drugs is very urgent. Only their general promotion and application can eventually return the economy and people's livelihood to normal.

For a long time, consumption has been weak in the three total demand in China.There are relatively complicated reasons here, such as the low proportion of labor income from capital income compared to capital income.These are not contradictions that can be resolved for a while.The impact of the epidemic over the past two years has greatly affected consumption.When considering the comprehensive policy, we must put as much as possible, short -term factors, normal factors, and very state -based factors as much as possible in a framework to help meet the people's longing for a better life and make residents finally consume in the end consumptionIt can be normalized as soon as possible and can improve steadily.(The author is a professor at the School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University)

Send 2022.8.1 Total Issue 1054 "China News Weekly" magazine

Magazine title: The key to whether economic growth can achieve the expected goal is consumption

Author: Chen Xian

Capture: Wang Lin

- END -