Germany, suffer, suffer yourself

On July 21, the "Beixi No. 1" pipeline resumed gas supply, from the euro exchange rate to the European stock market.

From July 11 this year, Russia's main pipeline "Beixi 1", the main channel for natural gas to send natural gas to Germany.

Beixi No. 2 project is interrupted, but Beixi No. 1 can not be upright ▼

This is not worth worrying about it. Every summer, when the gas trough is used in the summer, the Russian Natural Gas Industry Corporation (Gazprom) will conduct a ten -day routine maintenance work for "Beixi 1".

But this time is compared to the past!

Stun

Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Germany has provided Ukraine with a lot of assistance including heavy weapons. According to the traditional neutral definition, Germany has lost a neutral position in this war. Will Russia "unplugged" in Germany because of this?

With the joining of NATO brothers, Germany also pays a lot of ruthless goods

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

During the ten days when the Germans were bold, the Russian answers were sometimes clear and ambiguous. Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently promised to complete Russia's liability for gas supply, but he also said that "Europeans are facing difficulties because they have launched sanctions against Moscow, and in a sense Supply of their own gas. "

In Europe, it is operated by in Europe, but it is a stones to smash their feet

(Figure: shutterstock) ▼

Russia also released the wind, claiming to be sent to Siemens Canada for maintenance, Taipeixi No. 1, which was delayed from returning to Russia's embargo on Russia, which may lead to postponed recovery of gas supply this year.

The concentrated German Chancellor Tsumozardo communicated with Canada. Under the coordination of the United States, Canada finally announced that the "Special Affairs Office" would transport the gas turbine to Germany back to Russia. But until July 18, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs said that the turbine was missing.

Is it Siemens or Xue Dingzheng's turbine?

(Source: Airvo) ▼

In addition, according to the New York Times, "Beixi 1" in previous years in previous years, Russian Natural Gas Industry Corporation will increase gas supply through channels in Ukraine and Poland, but this year has not been. This allowed the German business and politics to hold his breath before July 21.

You know, based on technical reasons, the consequences of "broken gas" are not as "silky" as the water comes after the water stops. Because when the pressure in the gas pipeline was lower than the minimum threshold on the day, many companies using these natural gas will automatically stick to the safety valves of hundreds of thousands of gas boilers. Even if they are lucky enough to restore gas supply since then, these valves need to be manually opened by technicians, which means that the restart after "Blind Qi" will be a very long process.

This is a design that makes people feel at ease, but at this moment adds an anxious atmosphere

(Figure: shutterstock) ▼

On July 21, the "Beixi No. 1" (part) resumed gas supply, which undoubtedly made Germany relieved. However, even if it is restored to the level before the maintenance, the current natural gas flow in the pipeline is only 40%of the pipeline transportation technology capacity (that is, about 67 million cubic meters per day). The sharp sword of the energy crisis is still hanging above Germany.

In fact, as early as mid -June, it decreased to this level ▼

The crisis was so fierce that some people suspected that Putin had already made strategic plans for this.

Before the Russian and Ukraine War, Rehden, the largest natural gas storage station in Germany, still belonged to Astora, a subsidiary of Russia's natural gas company. So what is the natural gas reserve of the station at the end of 2021?

Capital zero.

Russia has a small plan to prevent Astora from filling natural gas

Make the German natural gas reserve limit of 1/5 less

(Figure: Flickr) ▼

At present, the station has been taken over by the German federal government, and the reserves have only reached 14.61%.

Although the German government has never affirmed such conspiracy theories, it bluntly stated that "the sharp decline in Russia's natural gas supply is Putin's economic attack on us, trying to promote panic, raise prices, and create social divisions." Minister of Economy and Climate Protection Habeck)

Habeck also expects to decline Russia to increase its support rate for himself

Who hits Liangtang's idea again (Figure: One Photo Network) ▼

The German economy, was taken over

In order to cope with the worst situation, Germany's "Natural Gas Supply Program" used to evaluate the degree of energy crisis is divided into three levels, which are:

FRühwarnstufe: The government does not intervene, and the market entities shall take preparation measures.

Alarmstufe: The government uses subsidies and other means to ensure the safety of key market entities. For example, the government is currently injecting 9 billion euros to UNIPER, Germany's largest energy importer, to help this company that seriously rely on Russian natural gas supply over the bankruptcy crisis.

NOTFALLSTUFE: The government intervenes directly to maintain national security.

On March 30 this year, Germany announced that it entered the "early alert" stage. On June 23, he announced that he entered the "alarm stage". If the "Beixi 1" will not restore the gas supply on July 21, or interrupt the gas supply for any reasons in the future, Germany will definitely enter the highest level: "emergency".

Although summer is a low peak period, in order to deal with the arrival of winter, Germany must take advantage of the current reserves ▼

In this case, the German government's plan can be summarized in one word: distribution system. At that time, the federal government will directly determine the share of each category of natural gas consumers. The general principle is: key social institutions such as residents, hospitals and other key social institutions and natural gas power plants for home heating will obtain preferential priority, and large gas households such as chemical enterprises will inevitably be restricted.

In response to such a plan, the chairman of the executive board of the German chemical giant BASF stated as early as April 1 that if the supply of natural gas decline sharply, the company will have to reduce production or discontinue production.

At that time, if the production of fertilizers will not be available

Even German agriculture may have problems

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

Germany's largest ammonia producer Stickstoffwork Piesteritz (SKW) is the main supplier of European fertilizer and diesel engine tail gas discharge solution. Fall from 100 tons to 0 tons. "

Membrane fertilizer also rests and transportation is also affected, maybe until this moment

The natural gas of German talents was reminded "What is strategic material"

(Figure: shutterstock) ▼

Originally, this year's new crown epidemic has repeatedly hit the German economy again and again. If many chemical companies have reduced production or discontinue due to energy problems, the economic recession will be destined to accompany severe inflation.

The rise in global energy prices has caused a trade deficit that has maintained foreign trade surplus all year round. Germany is no exception. In May this year, the first trade deficit has occurred for many years. If this phenomenon continues for a long time, it will mean that Germany may fall into the dilemma of long -term inflation and insufficient international payment methods. The recent plunge in the euro exchange rate is the reflection of the pessimistic expectations of investors.

Since Russia and Ukraine War, Russia has increased its energy price increase

In Germany, the first trade deficit for more than thirty years

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

According to a report released by Mercato Global Public and Climate Change Institute (MCC) last month, if Russia stops giving gas to Germany, Germany's current energy structure will be difficult to support. Another researchers from the University of Bonn University, IFO Economics, and other institutions pointed out that Russia's air suspension will reduce Germany's GDP 0.5%to 3%.

In other words, a instruction of the Kremlin may cause the German economy to fall negatively (Germany's GDP growth in 2020 was -5.0%, an increase of 2.3%year-on-year in 2021).

Trouble and distrust of Russia's bones

Make Germany who wants to get rid of Russia's energy control

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

In addition to production, the lives of Germans are also facing difficulties. According to the market survey agency YOUGOV's questionnaire, in March shortly after the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, 24%of German low -income families (pure monthly income below 2,500 euros) felt that inflation was threatening to survive.

And this is the result of the rise in the price of ordinary commodities. In terms of natural gas consumption that is really threatened, the bill has not been sent.

Bad news will fly again for a while

But the people on the bottom people have noticed the coming of bitter days with their instincts

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

According to the German Housing Association (GDW), each German family will increase an average of 3,800 euros in the coming year. In order to make "the tenants are not frightened when they receive the settlement bill next year", a rental company in Saxon will only supply hot water in the limited three periods from July 1.

In the days when natural gas does not increase price, it is already difficult to be difficult in summer

(Figure: Tuwa Creative) ▼

Cancel 2035 carbon neutrality?

In addition to throwing, it also needs to be open source.

Germany is trying to use other energy power to power generation in order to be as many natural gas as possible for winter reserves.

Prior to July 21, Minister of Economy Habel formulated a plan to re -start coal power generation at the moment of crisis. Although the current imminent crisis is temporarily lifted and re -increased coal power for gas storage is still the priority option of the German government.

So why does Germany choose such a "high -carbon" power generation method, instead of choosing more "low -carbon" nuclear energy power generation?

This is because compared with nuclear power, the start and exit of coal power are relatively easy. Once the crisis is lifted, the entire process can be reversed.

The boiler is opened, the cubes are smoked, and the boiler is closed. The people are worried about the sky

(Figure: shutterstock) ▼

And changing the process of the shutdown of nuclear power and continuing to extend the operation time of the remaining three nuclear power plants. The procedure will be very complicated. You must conduct new risk assessments. Purchase new nuclear fuel at least 12 months. Moreover, once the nuclear power "continues" successful, there will be a political fierce competition.

After so many years of anti -nuclear movement

There are only three nuclear power stations that are still running in Germany ▼

This shows that Habeck, as the Green Party leader, still withdraw from the long -term goal of "non -green energy" (nuclear power and coal power) as Germany. "

The Green Party's strategy is to temporarily choose to temporarily withdraw from coal and electricity emergency, and then increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation to 80%(currently only 42%) by 2030. After the Green Party is in politics, it will implement their own ideas to the end

But can the energy crisis really support the mouth?

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

In the original draft, there was still the word "close to greenhouse gas" in the field of power generation by 2035 (which is completely different from "carbon neutral" in the general sense), but this was deleted by the draft of the Federal House of House to delete this Sentence.

So that last Monday was called "Helplessly bowed his head!" The news that Germany's cancellation of 2035 carbon neutralization and target European environmental protection policies fall into a big retreat "suddenly began to spread on the Chinese Internet. Two or three days later, "Oolong" was clarified that the German government has never set the goal of carbon neutrality in 2035, let alone cancellation. The German government's goal is to achieve carbon neutrality in 2045 without changing.

In today's Green Party, Germany, the government's vision that the government sketches the people

Presumably, it is an ecological friendly post -modern pastoral pastoral scene

(Figure: One picture network) ▼

Even with this strategic consideration, the German Green Party, which relied on environmental protection, has to rely on coal power to save lives, which is really sighing.

The environmental elites who were originally on the edge of the political stage have finally become a home after decades of struggle, and cultivated a generation of German youths who focus on environmental protection, but they hit the world situation of "safety higher than everything".

When the hypocritical coat made of the political declaration was torn off

Can politicians have been realized?

(Figure: shutterstock) ▼

Is Germany really reaching the point of dangerous eggs and exhaustion of mountains and waters? It's far from.

For example, the German government is educating the people: in order to prevent the epidemic, it is necessary to wash hands, but cold water and hand -wash can also wash their hands without having to wash their hands with warm water every time -people in developing countries listen to this. You can also know that Germany's energy conservation has extremely huge space.

Prevent the epidemic and everyone is responsible, let the virus and carbon neutralize the ghosts.

(Figure: shutterstock) ▼

Reference materials:

1.https://www.bundesnetzagentur.de/DE/Fachthemen/ElektrizitaetundGas/Versorgungssicherheit/aktuelle_gasversorgung/start.html#:~:text=Seit%20dem%2023.06.2022%20gilt,Deutschland%20ist%20derzeit%20weiter%20gew %C3%A4hrleistet.

2.Melissa Eddy， Germany Is on Edge Waiting for Russia to Restart the Gas on Nord Stream 1，The New York Times, 3.https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/19/business/nordstream-shutdown. html.

4. Zhang Dongfang: What kind of energy price crisis is the Germans facing? ", Http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001095752? Archive.

5. Zhang Dongfang: "When German Energy's Carbonization kills a" Going to Russia ", http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001095689? Archive.

6. Zhang Dongfang: "The Worst Planning of the" Solar "mode and preview of Germany", http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001096701? Archive.

7. Zhang Dongfang: "What stage is the energy crisis in Germany entered? ", Http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001096506? Full = y & Archive.

8. Joe Miller, Gay Chazan: "Russia cuts natural gas supply, can German industry still survive? ", Http://www.ftchinese.com/interactive/77620? Exclusive.

9. "Save Qi: Limited to Rental Rental Rental Rental Restrictions in Germany", https://www.dw.com/zh/%E8%8A%82%E7%ba6%E7%94%A8%E6%10.B0%94%e5%B7%B7%E5%9b%BD%E6%89%E7%A7%E6%88%BF%E5%AC%AC%E5%8F%B8%E9%E9%E9%E9%E9%E9%E9%E9%99%90%E4%BE%9b%E7%83%AD%E6%B4/A-62395991.*The content of this article is provided for the author, which does not represent the position of the Earth Investment Bureau

Cover: shutterstock

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