The order in the second half of the year is king!New energy vehicles "dark fall" in a small range

China Times (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Zhai Yenan Beijing reported

Since March of this year, new energy vehicles have experienced several rounds of prices, covering almost all mainstream models in the market. July is the low season of the traditional sales of the auto market. Will the price of new energy vehicles loose?

The Mercedes-Benz pure electric sedan EQS dropped 300,000 yuan, SAIC Volkswagen ID.3 to 150,000 yuan, Xiaopeng Automobile offline discount of 50,000-10,000 yuan ... At present, some new energy models have quietly opened the price reduction mode. Compared with the rising cost of raw materials and the pressure brought by cores, many car companies have realized that the second half of the year "has a hand -to -order heart without panic", and the price reduction is a measure.

According to the data recently released by the Federation of Federation, it is expected that the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July will reach 450,000, an increase of 102.5%year -on -year, and the growth rate has slowed from June. According to the Federation of Federation, a large number of consumer demand has been quickly released in June. The reduction of half of the purchase tax within July is slightly weaker than the overall support of the automotive market than June. It is expected that consumers have just reduced the urgency of car purchase in the short term.

Supply and demand change leverage the price

With the resumption of work and re -production in various places after the epidemic, and the successive introduction of the state's stimulating consumption policies, car companies seized the window to accelerate the layout at this time. At present, the new vehicles in the new energy market are listed at the average speed of nearly 5 weekly. For consumers, as optional space expands, "price comparison" becomes easier. For car companies, increasing the market share at this time is the first priority.

A person familiar with the matter revealed that at the recent internal meeting, Xiaopeng Automobile focused on the issue of price reduction promotion. From the perspective of the terminal market, all models of Xiaopeng Automobile's offline models are reducing prices. Different cars have different declines, which are basically between 50,000 to 10,000 yuan. As the sales of the new forces in the first half of the year, Xiaopeng Automobile sold nearly 70,000 units in the first half of the year, exceeding the second place Nezha car nearly 6,000. However, the growth rate of Nezha in the first half of the year reached 199%, and Xiaopeng Automobile was 124%. At the same time, the ideal car, as one of the popular players of the annual new forces, the ideal L9 of the new model will open a large -scale delivery in September. According to the expected expected of the monthly sales of 10,000 vehicles, the momentum of the ideal car cannot be underestimated.

In fact, compared with the competition of peers, it is still the problem of insufficient orders that make Xiaopeng cars under pressure. Internal insiders of Xiaopeng Automobile admitted that "the current order pressure is very high, and the price reduction is just a moment." It is reported that Xiaopeng Automobile currently has about 11,000 orders on hand, and the price reduction is expected to increase about 3,000 orders. In July, the order was added about 12,000. Compared with the amount of orders, Xiaopeng Automobile's production capacity is close to the "explosion". At the Q3 financial report and telephone meeting in November 2021, He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xiaopeng Automobile, said that the total design capacity of the three major factories was 400,000 units, which can support the annual output of 600,000 vehicles through dual -class production. If the Guangzhou plant is successfully put into production in August, Xiaopeng Automobile's monthly production capacity will reach about 30,000 vehicles, and about 50,000 will be reached by the end of this year. In other words, Xiaopeng Automobile must maintain a monthly sales of 30,000 vehicles in order to barely keep up with the increase in production capacity.

"New energy vehicles belong to the manufacturing industry, and the manufacturing industry competes to the end. The overcapacity is inevitable, or it should be called the" fluctuations of the cycle '. At the same time, the overcapacity may not be a bad thing. At present, in the process of marketization of new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles should be compared with traditional fuel vehicles, especially at 100,000 to 200,000 yuan. "Yin Zhongzhong, chief analyst of Everbright Securities Electricity Industry, told the reporter of Huaxia Times.

Unlike Xiaopeng Automobile, the choice of EQS, the EQS of pure electric cars during a million -dollar Mercedes -Benz period, is a big deal. A few days ago, some netizens exposed the Mercedes -Benz EQS delivery information published in the WeChat group where their WeChat group, with a discount of nearly 300,000 yuan. However, the news was not officially confirmed, and the specific price was still subject to local sales policies. But as early as June, the price of Mercedes -Benz EQS 450 white meters had been reduced by 190,000 yuan. Public data shows that Mercedes -Benz EQS has only 497 units in the first May of this year. In contrast, the top -equipped price has also reached 800,000 yuan of new vehicle brand brands HipHi X, which has stabilized the monthly sales above 300 vehicles. Not only Mercedes -Benz. At present, the terminals of the new energy models of Volkswagen, GM, Toyota, Honda, and other brands still have a lot of discounts. Some of the "oil -to -electricity" models have even dropped to 40 % off sales.

"The price must be adjusted by the market. Because the supply is small, the supply is naturally increased, and the price can be increased to increase the supply. After the supply and demand reaches the balance, the price will tend to be rational." Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the National Federation of China, emphasized.

Battery cost reduction trend

Is there still room for new energy vehicles? The answer is yes. At the Bernestein Strategic Decision Conference in June, Ford CEO JIM Farley predicted that the manufacturing cost of electric vehicles will decline in the next few years, and the new energy industry will definitely usher in a huge price war. In its opinion, the continuous expansion of battery companies and the progress of new technologies will reduce the cost of battery manufacturing, and car companies may benefit from this further price reduction space.

The cost of power batteries accounts for 40%of the total cost of pure electric vehicles at the highest, so the price of the battery directly determines the price of the vehicle. In 2021, due to the rise in lithium batteries, the price of pure trams rose. According to the predictions of relevant agencies, the price of power batteries will be reduced to $ 100/kWh by 2023; by 2030, the battery price will drop to $ 58/kWh. At the same time, a number of new technologies will give birth to the advent of a group of high -performance and low -cost batteries, and it is expected to be on the car next year. Tesla CEO Musk said in the second quarter of this year that 4680 batteries can make it possible for its company to produce $ 25,000 in electric vehicles. This battery will be mass -produced at the end of the third quarter. On the Tesla battery day in September 2020, Tesla launched the 4680 cylindrical battery for the first time. Compared with the 21700 battery equipped on the Tesla model, the energy has been increased by 5 times and the output power increases by 6 times. At the volume of the battery pack, the 4680 battery loading mileage increased by 16%. At the same time, the application of a series of innovative technologies can reduce production cost by 69 %.

Recently, at the "World Power Battery Conference" opened in Yibin, Sichuan, Wu Kai, chief scientist in Ningde Times, revealed that the company's latest M3P new battery has been mass -produced and will be carried on the new mass production electric vehicle as soon as 2023. It is reported that this new battery is developed based on the new material system. The cost is cheaper than the ternary lithium battery, and it is also very suitable for large -scale production.

A recently released research report released by Galaxy Securities believes that new energy vehicles have entered 2022 generally increased prices due to the rise in commodity prices. It is expected that after the price of commodities in 2023, with the launch of more new energy models and the planning of production capacity The price war will begin, which is huge challenging to the gross profit and net profit of new energy vehicle companies. However, there are also voices that the cost of battery costs continues to decline, and the proportion of the entire vehicle cost will decline, but it is not necessarily that the pricing of the vehicle will continue to decline. "Considering that the price of the entire vehicle may make some existing owners feel dissatisfied, it may also have a negative impact on the value perception of the brand. Therefore Increased value -added in the case of model positioning and price. "Zhang Heng, a senior media person in the automotive industry, believes.

Editor -in -chief: Editor Li Yanan: Yu Jianping

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