In July, PMI was 49.0%, and the service industry was reduced to the contraction interval service industry to continue recovery.

On July 31, the National Bureau of Statistics announced that in July, the manufacturing procurement manager index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month. It was below the critical point and the level of manufacturing prosperity fell.

In addition, the data also showed that in July, the non -manufacturing business activity index and the integrated PMI output index were 53.8%and 52.5%, respectively, down 0.9 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month.

"Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that PMI data fell again after two consecutive months.

The PMI in July was 49.0%, and it was reduced to the contracted range picture source: the National Bureau of Statistics

High energy consumption industry has a low prosperity

In July PMI entered a contraction range below 50%.

In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics, analyzed that in July, due to factors such as the low season of traditional production, the lack of release of market demand, and the lower prosperity of high -energy consumption industries, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%.

Zhao Wei, the chief economist of Guojin Securities, analyzed the reporter of "Daily Economic News" through WeChat. In July, PMI data showed that the high -energy consumption industry dragged down significantly, or some of the weather such as high temperature was affected. In the main industries, PMI, such as textiles, petroleum and coal processing, black smelting, etc., continues to be located in the contraction range, which is one of the main factors of PMI falling; Higher.

According to the performance of PMI performances in different scale, Zhang Aoping, Dean of the Increasing Research Institute, analyzed the reporter of the Daily Economic News through WeChat. From the perspective of large, medium, and small enterprises, in July, large and medium -sized enterprises fell Small enterprises are still in the contraction range. Large -scale enterprise PMI is 49.8%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of the medium -sized enterprise is 48.5%, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points from the previous month; the PMI of small enterprises is 47.9%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. This year, it has continued to shrink this year. Division.

Among them, the production and operation pressure of large -scale enterprises is larger than the production and operation of medium -sized enterprises, and the development expectations are weak. This is also the key "pain point" problem for the current economic growth to achieve steady growth.

The service industry continued to recover in July

At the same time, the reporter of "Daily Economic News" also noticed that many positive signals also contained PMI data in July.

Yang Chang, chief economist of the Public Policy and Governance Research Institute of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, pointed out in an interview with the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that in the July PMI sub -item, the new order index was 48.5%(the previous value of 50.4%), falling down 1.9 percentage points. The new export order index is 47.4%(49.5%), and 2.1 percentage points fall; the difference between the new order index and the new export order index is 1.1 percentage points (0.9 percentage points). In summary, the data reflects the needs of the demand side, especially the impact of foreign demand, and the production end has a short -term fluctuation, but the domestic demand has increased slightly.

Zhao Qinghe combined with data analysis that the service industry continued to recover in July. In July, the business activity index of the service industry was 52.8%, 1.5 percentage points fell from the previous month. It continued to maintain the expansion range, indicating that the service industry continued to recover with a series of stable growth of consumer policy measures. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 16 industry business activities indexes are located in the expansion range. Among them, aviation transportation, accommodation, catering, ecological protection and public facilities management industries are higher than 60.0%. The business volume continues to recover quickly.

From the market expectations, the business activity expectation index is 58.8%, and it continues to be located in a higher prosperity range. The expected index of all industry business activities in the survey is above the critical point for two consecutive months.

Regarding the future PMI trend, Zhang Aopi analyzed the reporter of "Daily Economic News" that at present, the economy is in a key window of stabilizing and recovering. In July, the PMI reduced the contraction interval again, which reflected that the foundation of the economic recovery was not firm, the recovery momentum was still weak, and the confidence of SMEs was insufficient.

Therefore, under the premise of reasonable and moderate macro fiscal and monetary policy, it will not rush to turn, but will be more accurate and powerful, and will have more active actions in expanding effective demand. The efforts of subsequent policy operations should be transformed from wide currency to wide credit, and the focus of wide credit at present is that the private sector uses currency, that is, the financing development of private enterprises, and residents' loan consumption.

Daily Economic News

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