The commodity weeks newspaper 丨 crude oil fluctuates slightly, and the prices of gold, copper, and iron ore have risen significantly

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang Beijing report

This week (July 25th-July 29th), international oil prices have risen slightly, and the market focuses on the OPEC+output meeting held next week. In terms of natural gas market, the gas transmission volume of the Beixi No. 1 pipeline fell again, exacerbating the EU's concerns about the shortage of energy supply.

The prices of gold and copper have continued to rise this week, and the price of iron ore has also risen significantly. Steel manufacturers have continued to reduce production, the fundamentals of market supply and demand have improved, inventory pressure has gradually eased, and the losses of the main varieties calculated by the institutional calculation continued to narrow.

Crude oil shock slightly

This week, international oil prices have maintained a slight fluctuation. The price of WTI crude oil futures changes within the range of $ 95-100/barrel. Brent crude oil has risen slightly and returns more than 100 US dollars per barrel.

As of the close of July 30, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in September rose 2.28%to close at $ 98.62/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered in September rose 2.68%to close at $ 110 per barrel. /bucket.

From the sources, OPEC+organizations composed of OPEC and Russia and other oil -producing countries will hold the next meeting on August 3. Sources revealed that OPEC+will consider maintaining September oil output unchanged when meeting next week, and may also discuss moderately increasing production. Since the beginning of this year, the actual output of OPEC+organization has been less than the target output.

Russia and Europe "fighting spirit" continues

This week, it was regarded as the Dutch TTF benchmark natural gas base price of the Dutch TTF benchmark at the target of the European natural gas price direction, and it jumped to 205.767 euros/MWh time on July 27, a new high of the year.

Judging from the news, the No. 1 Beixi No. 1, which is the main pipeline of Russia to the EU, has fallen again. After the annual maintenance of the year on July 21, the gas transmission volume of Beixi No. 1 returned to 40 % of the normal flow, but on July 27th, another turbine at Beixi No. 1 stopped working. To 20%of the full load flow, it triggered the turbulence of the European natural gas market.

The European Union reached a consensus this week, that is, from August 1st this year to March 31, 2023, EU member states should voluntarily reduce the demand for natural gas on the basis of the average consumption of natural gas in the past five years. During the gap, the European Union can enforce member states to reduce dosage.

Gold price continues to rebound

The price of gold has continued to rebound this week. Last weekend, the price of gold futures in New York was as low as $ 1711/ounce, and it had risen above $ 1780/ounce this Friday.

The "Global Gold Demand Trends Report" released by the World Gold Association on July 28 shows that global gold demand in the second quarter decreased by 8%to 948 tons year -on -year; Gold demand still increased by 12%compared with the same period of 2021, reaching 2189 tons.

Analysts of the World Gold Association pointed out that the gold market threats and opportunities coexist in the second half of the year. Investors' risk aversion needs will still provide support for gold investment, but the further tightening of monetary policy and the continuous strengthening of the US dollar may constitute resistance.

Copper prices rose continuously

Copper prices have ushered in a continuous rise this week. From the $ 7,387/ton last weekend, Lun Tong rose to $ 7926.45/ton this weekend, an increase of 7.3%in the week; Shanghai Copper rose to 61190 yuan/ton on weekends, an increase of 7.4%over last weekend.

Huatai Futures Research Report pointed out that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes were fulfilled in July. At present, macro emotions have a relatively large impact on prices, but their fundamental changes are relatively limited. Copper prices may still be higher in early August, but further upward may wait until the consumption season in the fourth quarter can not be achieved.

National Energy Administration: Multiple measures to do a good job of coal protection work

On July 27, at a press conference organized by the National New Office, the relevant person in charge of the National Energy Administration stated that it would stabilize coal -to -production protection policies, adhere to the national coal output scheduling, accelerate the production of advanced production capacity by compacting coal production and insurance. , Strengthen the long -term contract performance supervision of electric coal, and do a good job of coal protection.

According to the National Energy Administration, since this year, the domestic coal mine has approved the advanced production capacity of 37.7 million tons/year, the scale of construction has increased production capacity by 9 million tons/year, and the trial production capacity is 60 million tons/year. Power plant electricity coal inventory exceeded 170 million tons, an increase of 51.7%year -on -year.

Main steel calculation of losses narrowing

The comprehensive price of Lange Steel National Steel this week was 4324 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.3%from last week. The obvious rebound, the calculation of the main variety of the calculation of the loss continued to narrow.

Lan Ge Iron Analysis pointed out that with the continuous reduction of steel mills, the fundamentals of supply and demand in the steel market have improved, and steel social inventory has decreased significantly compared with the same period last year, and the inventory pressure has gradually eased. In the later period, the demand for steel will gradually get out of the off -season. Infrastructure force, real estate construction or accelerate the release of demand. If the reduction of production continues, the market supply and demand prices are expected to improve further. Steel manufacturers' production profits are still low, and support at the cost end may occur. The steel market is expected to operate strongly.

Iron ore rebound space may not be large

The price of iron ore has risen continuously this week. As of July 29, the main contract of domestic iron ore futures rose to 810.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 19%from the closing price of last weekend;The dollar/ton rose to $ 114/ton on July 29, and the highest value of the week rose to $ 118/ton.Lange Iron and Steel pointed out that the steel market's stop falling rebound drove the iron ore market and superimposed the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. The rhythm of interest rate hikes is expected to slow down. At the same timeEssenceAt present, the supply and demand pattern of iron ore has not changed much, the port inventory continues to accumulate, and the operating rate of major steel companies in the country has continued to decline. Although the profit of steel mills has improved, it is still low.In summary, iron ore demand is not expected to be strong, and the price of continuous rebound in price is not expected.

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