Interpret the economic signal released in July PMI

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, July 31: Interpretation of the economic signal released in July PMI

Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and Zou Duowei

The National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Investigation Center and China Logistics and Procurement Federation released data on July 31. In July, China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 49%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from last month; non -manufacturing business activities; non -manufacturing business activities The index and integrated PMI output index are 53.8%and 52.5%, respectively, and are located in the expansion range for two consecutive months. Experts from the National Bureau of Statistics believe that overall the level of economic prosperity has fallen, and the foundation of restoration needs to be stable.

"In July, affected by factors such as the low season of traditional production, the lack of release of market demand, and the decline in high energy -consuming industries, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 49%." Said Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics.

Zhao Qinghe said that some industries in the manufacturing industry remained restored in July. Of the 21 industries surveyed, 10 industries PMI is located in the expansion range. Among them, PMI, such as agricultural and sideline food processing, food and wine and beverage refined tea, special equipment, automobiles, railway ships, aerospace equipment and other industries. Monthly expands, and production needs to continue to recover.

The price index fell significantly, and the cost of corporate cost decreased. In July, affected by factors such as the price fluctuations of international commodity prices such as oil, coal, and iron ore, the purchase price index and the factory price index of the main raw materials decreased by 11.6 and 6.2 percentage points from the previous month.

From the perspective of corporate surveys, in July, the proportion of enterprises that reflect the high cost of raw materials decreased by 7.9 percentage points from the previous month, and decreased for 4 consecutive months. With the dredging of the domestic industrial chain supply chain, logistics costs have also fallen, and the proportion of enterprises with high logistics costs decreased by 5.1 percentage points compared with the previous month, and decreased for three consecutive months.

The expected index of production and operation activities continues to be located in the expansion range. Zhao Qinghe analyzed that the internal and external environment of my country's economic development has become more complicated and severe in the recent economic development. The production and operation of enterprises has continued to pressure, and the market expects to be affected to some extent. The expected index of production and operation activities in July is 52%, although it decreases 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, but it has been decreased by 3.2 percentage points, but it has decreased by 3.2 percentage points. It is still located in the expansion range.

"With the contraction of the market supply and demand, the current employment remains relatively stable. In July, the employee index was 48.6%, which was only 0.1 percentage points decreased from the previous month, which was higher than the average index in the first half of the year." China Logistics Information Center expert text Tao said that the stable employment situation is not only conducive to the stability of the back market, but also better to settle the bottom line of the people.

It is worth noting that the new kinetic energy maintains the rise and the industrial structure continues to optimize. In July, the PMI and high -tech manufacturing PMIs of the equipment manufacturing industry were 51.2%and 51.5%, respectively. Although it decreased by 1 and 1.3 percentage points from the previous month, they were maintained at an expansion range of more than 51%. The sub -index shows that the supply and demand growth rate of equipment manufacturing and high -tech manufacturing has remained at a relatively good level, indicating that although the growth rate of new kinetic energy has slowed down, it is still at the rise and the industrial structure continues to optimize.

However, the manufacturing supply and demand in July fell after the rapid release in June. The production index and the new order index were 49.8%and 48.5%, respectively, down 3 and 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, both in the contraction range. Zhao Qinghe said that the results of the survey showed that the proportion of enterprises that reflect the insufficient market demand increased for 4 consecutive months, and exceeded 50 % of this month. Insufficient market demand is the main difficulty facing the current manufacturing enterprises. The foundation of manufacturing development needs to be stable.

Statistics show that non -manufacturing has recovered for two consecutive months. Among them, the service industry continued to recover. In July, the service industry business activity index was 52.8%, which continued to maintain the expansion range. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 16 industry business activities indexes are located in the expansion range. Among them, aviation transportation, accommodation, catering and other industries are higher than 60%. The consumer demand that was suppressed in the early stage continued to release, and the business volume of related industries continued to recover quickly.

From the expectations of the service industry market, in July, the business activity expectation index was 58.8%, and it continued to be located in a high boom range. The expected index of all industry business activities in the survey was above the critical point for two consecutive months.

The construction industry expands. In July, the business activity index of the construction industry was 59.2%, which was higher than 2.6 percentage points last month. The construction industry production activities accelerated. From the perspective of the industry, the business activities index, the new order index and the employee index of civil engineering construction industry are 58.1%, 51.8%, and 51.9%, respectively, an increase of 0.2, 1.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that infrastructure project construction has accelerated accelerated advancement , Market demand has picked up, enterprise employment continues to increase, and the industry is expected to maintain steadily.

"In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 52.5%, which was lower than 1.6 percentage points last month, indicating that the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand, but the pace was slowed." Zhao Qinghe said.

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