Scripture research | SME orders for pressure

In the Pearl River Delta region, a 12 -year establishment of a manufacturer of supporting consumables for international brands told reporters that before the epidemic, the orders of international customers have declined. On the one hand The order is also concentrated in the hands of a few suppliers.

Author: Gao Ruoyi

Figure: Tuwa Creative

The main economic indicators in June have been improved marginal, but the key to the growth of endogenous economic and vitality -the development of small and medium -sized enterprises still faces many uncertainty. The order is the sword of Damocaris hanging above them.

A small home appliance and office product manufacturer with an annual revenue of nearly 1 billion yuan in Guangzhou told the Economic Observer that their products are mainly facing the European and North American markets. Customers are based on large -scale business in these regions, such as Wal -Mart and Costco.

Since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, orders from the European market have decreased by 1/3 in the first half of this year. Yu Chen, the person in charge of the company, said that these retail giants are the most sensitive to local consumption trends. Affected by war and inflation, the consumption of local people directly shrinks, and then transmits to orders for consumer goods categories in the store.

The North American market is also undergoing the "sequelae" left by the global logistics obstruction of the supply chain in 2021. Yu Chen recalled that North America's continuous import demand and poorly blocked logistics once changed their production expectations and retail giants' stocking rhythm. Due to poor logistics and insufficient supply of various consumables and daily necessities, many retailers began to prevent stock stocks in the later period.

"Our stocking cycle is generally produced 6 months in advance. Although the market is good last year, in fact, from March this year, logistics congestion on the east and west coasts of North America has begun to be relieved, and the goods can be reached on the shore for more than ten days." Yu Chen said that based on this time cycle, preparation in advance will increase the storage costs. In addition, the large number of retailers' stocks have not been digested before, and he expects that the next order in the third quarter will continue to decline.

In the Pearl River Delta region, a 12 -year establishment of a manufacturer of supporting consumables for international brands told reporters that before the epidemic, the orders of international customers have declined. On the one hand The order is also concentrated in the hands of a few suppliers.

Even in the face of the epidemic, the market conditions are always here. "For a period of time, due to the impact of the epidemic, the order decline was serious. Later, everyone at home, the order suddenly rose, and all of them declined this year. Last year, the live broadcast of the live broadcast, we made a selfie of mobile phones. Starting down. "Li Nian, general manager of the company, told reporters that the interview that day he had just received a notice from one of the multinational brand customers, and planned to reduce an order by 28%in the second half of the year. The plan for half a year to one year can only show that their expectations for the market are also very poor now. "

But the most worried about Li Nian is 90%of the domestic business. As a second -level supplier in the first -level supplier in the industry chain, Li Nian's industry has a small profit, which is only 10%of the time, and it has fallen to 5%last year. Once the industry leaders are tightening, the rice bowls of second- and third -level small and medium -sized suppliers like Li Nian will be unstable.

Li Nian is very impressed. Their customers are the suppliers for Huawei mobile phone accessories. From the 2019 trade war, it will not be played in the 2019 trade war. 60,000 sets, dropped to less than 10,000 units a month, and less than 300,000 yuan in a few months.

But Li Nian believes that at least the epidemic is fair, and the survival of the fittest is the case in all industries. He predicts that the industry in which it is located can only have 20%-30%of the enterprises in the end.

The order dilemma is to be solved

For a long time, exports have been the main driving force for China's economic growth. The low cost and large -scale comparative advantages have made foreign trade companies worrying about orders in the past few decades, forming the irreplaceable competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry in the global supply chain.

However, in the perspective of Xu Hui, who has more than ten years of industrial field research experience in the Pearl River Delta, the financial crisis in 2008 revealed the weakness of this "buyer -driven" production model, that is, over -reliance on foreign orders. Once the European and American market demand is weak, SMEs in Chinese manufacturing in the value chain must bear the operating pressure brought by the decline in orders, and shutdown and turning will become a hurdle that cannot be directed.

Many studies at home and abroad have shown that this extensive development model is unsustainable. Structural adjustments need to be made to make the source of orders diversified. From excessive dependence on foreign trade to exports and domestic demand balance, two -wheel drive. In this way, even if the overseas epidemic is relieved, the European and American economic recovery and the narrowing of supply and demand gaps, China can still rely on domestic consumption to support production orders.

From an industry perspective, orders such as automotive parts, new energy batteries and other products that have advantages in the supply chain not only have not decreased, but have increased to varying degrees. However, the traditional labor -intensive industries such as textiles, shoes and even home appliances, and electronics, affected by the shrinking and increased logistics costs of market demand, the loss of orders is severe, resulting in the poor production season, and many small and medium -sized foreign trade enterprises have stopped production. This shows that China's manufacturing industry has its own advantages and obvious shortcomings.

Therefore, under the overall goal of stabilizing the economic market, on the one hand, we must maintain and expand China's advantageous industries and enterprises, and promote order growth. On the other hand, we must support and enhance the vitality and competitiveness of traditional foreign trade enterprises. Xu Hui believes that for industries that have fallen severely in orders, it is necessary to find out the pain points that hinder the normal performance of enterprises, to do syndrome differentiation, do their best to restore the confidence of overseas buyers, and maintain the order stability. Otherwise, the continuous deterioration of the situation will not only affect the stability and integrity of China's supply chain, but also worsen the employment problems of young people.

At present, the epidemic prevention and control is still the biggest uncertainties, and the production plan may be interrupted by scattered confirmed cases at any time. Even if closed -loop production, companies still have difficulties in obtaining raw materials and key components, and the backlogs of finished goods and lag of logistics transportation will cause pressure on the factory to complete the order as scheduled. Under pressure, decision -making will be more cautious.

Faced with demand contraction, shocks, and expected weakness, governments at all levels are moving and helping small and medium -sized manufacturing companies to recover confidence, including large -scale tax reductions and phased slow -to -agency premiums, timely rescue and relieving stress.

However, Xu Hui's opinion is not the root cause of the root cause, because the root cause of the vitality of the enterprise still comes from the market, and the dilemma of the manufacturing industry must always rely on the needs of the two markets of foreign and domestic markets.

Therefore, under the premise that the epidemic prevention and control is not violated, on the one hand, it is necessary to ensure the flow of personnel and goods to the greatest extent to allow production to effectively operate. Complete competitiveness. On the other hand, it is necessary to minimize the one -size -fits -cut epidemic prevention measures, create a stable and expected development atmosphere, and stimulate the consumer confidence and willingness of residents, so as to exert the advantages of China's oversized market and promote the internal economic cycle.

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