Where to repair and call back in the second half of the year

In July of this year, the property market recovery factors are more complicated. In addition to the factors of the traditional June promotion drive sales, it is also mixed with various factors such as housing enterprise insurance, project postponed delivery risks, and reduced demand. These factors not only affect the real estate market in July, but also affect In the second half of the year, the real estate market trend.

Author: Tian Guobao

Figure: Tuwa Creative

Guide

Among the 30 large and medium cities, only the new house transaction area of ​​Shanghai and Shenzhen achieved a year -on -year turnover. New houses in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Wuxi, Qingdao and other cities have decreased differently, especially in Guangzhou by 50%from June.

件 || Under the influence of the confession incident, not only the project sales of insurance housing companies are affected, but the projects of state -owned enterprises and central enterprises will also be affected to varying degrees. Even if there are no risk -ending projects now, buyers are cautious.

Third || If the possibility of fully repairs the real estate market in the second half of the year in the second half of the year is further increased. But the hidden worry is still there.

In the current situation, how real estate is out of crisis is a common concern for all circles.

At noon on July 27, at a real estate project marketing center in Chaoyang District, Beijing, sales staff Xu Ying was receiving a group of customers. When the customer was leaving, Xu Ying asked the other party tentatively. , But the customer said that it was just passing by and did not decide to buy it.

There are a lot of people in the house, but there are not many real transactions. This is Xu Ying's recent feelings. She has more than 500 houses in her project. Since the opening of the fourth quarter of 2021, it has sold about 110 units, " There were more than 30 sets sold in June, and 10 sets were sold in July to now. "

Xu Ying introduced that since the opening of the market last year, due to the large number of surrounding projects, it has been facing a problem of dehuminating. The transactions in June did be better, but there is still a small gap compared with previous years. It is better than in June, but it is much better than before. "

According to the data released by the Beijing Housing and Construction Commission, from July 1st to 26th, the transaction area of ​​the new house in Beijing was 607,000 square meters, a year -on -year decrease of 50.8%, and the decline of more than May and 6th; from the previous month, in May and June, the new house in Beijing The transaction area has increased, and in July to 34.3%.

Not only Beijing, Wind data shows that from July 1st to 26th, the transaction area of ​​new houses in 30 large and medium -sized cities fell 27%month -on -month, a year -on -year decrease of 36.9%. Although the year -on -year decline has improved from 44.6%in May, there is a small gap compared with 7.2%in June.

The person in charge of a TOP30 housing enterprise marketing told the Economic Observation News that there was both the reason for the large base in June in July and the affected delivery of the delivery in July. "And different cities have different performances. Continue to repair, but some cities are relatively large. "

Return and repair

According to Xu Ying, in mid -June, the market began to improve. On the one hand, due to the end of the first half of the year, the project increased its promotional efforts; on the other hand, it was also because of the previously closed accumulation of some needs. Since early July, although there are many people watching a house, Xu Ying has received at least five or six customers every day on working days. He has been busy on the weekend, but the transaction is obviously not as good as June. "There is a demand, especially in a large city in Beijing, but customers are more cautious."

Judging from the data released by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission, although the transaction area of ​​the new house in July has fallen significantly, the transaction area of ​​second -hand housing has achieved a 13.6%growth month -on -month growth, and the year -on -year decreased by 38.4%to 31.4%in July. The transaction volume of second -hand housing surpasses the new house again.

From the perspective of the number of transactions in 30 large and medium -sized cities, the firmness of the first -tier cities is significantly better than second- and third -tier cities. From July 1st to 26th, new housing transactions in first -tier cities decreased by 10.6%month -on -month, second -tier cities decreased by 33.9%, third -tier cities declined 23.7%.

From a year -on -year perspective, from July 1st to 26th, the transaction area of ​​new houses in first -tier cities decreased by 4%year -on -year, which was basically the same as June. %, 21 percentage points expanded from June.

However, the differentiation of cities has further deepened. In terms of new houses, 26 days before July, the transaction area of ​​Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Fuzhou, Xiamen and other cities increased by more than 20%month -on -month, especially in Xiamen, an increase of 45%over June.

The restoration of the Shanghai and Shenzhen property markets is also obvious. In July, Shanghai New Housing Net signing and pre -sale area increased by 32%. Although the increase was weakened compared to June, it was the first time that the pre -sale area increased by 9.4%year -on -year. The signature area increased by 18.5%year -on -year.

In July, the transaction area of ​​Shenzhen's new houses increased by 23%month -on -month, which was less than June, but increased by 30.4%over the same period in 2021. The transaction area of ​​Shenzhen second -hand housing increased by 6.5%month -on -month, which was better than June, but decreased by 4.2%compared with the same period last year.

Among the 30 large and medium cities, only the transaction area of ​​the new houses in Shanghai and Shenzhen achieved a year -on -year turnover. New houses in Beijing, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wuhan, Wuxi, Qingdao and other cities have decreased differently, especially in Guangzhou by 50%from June.

The person in charge of the sales of another real estate company told the Economic Observer that the recent real estate market has been greatly affected by the incident of loan breaks. It is more difficult to sell housing. In this case, although the transaction of new houses in some cities has decreased significantly, the transaction of second -hand housing is active. The transaction area of ​​second -hand housing in Chengdu and Suzhou exceeds the same period last year; Beijing, Nanjing, Dongguan, Qingdao, Foshan and other cities. House transactions are better than June.

Influential factors

The person in charge of the above -mentioned real estate enterprise sales said that under the impact of the confession incident, not only the project sales of insurance housing companies were affected, but the projects of state -owned enterprises and central enterprises would be affected to varying degrees. The project, buyers are also cautious. "

He believes that the impact of the confession incident is more about the expectations and confidence of house purchase. For a long time, in order to maintain the only cash channel of the sales repayment, some real estate companies avoid breach of contract at the expense. It is difficult to keep sales. "If the incident has evolved further, it will not rule out that more housing companies have debt defaults or exhibition periods.

The person in charge of the marketing of the above TOP30 housing enterprises told the Economic Observation News that there was a case of callback in the property market in July. This is a reason to sell in December each year. "

However, in July this year, the property market recovery factors are more complicated. In addition to the factors of the traditional June promotion driving sales, it is also mixed with various factors such as real estate enterprise insurance, project postponed delivery risks, and reduced demand. It affects the trend of the real estate market in the second half of the year.

A TOP20 housing company executive told the Economic Observer that since 2022, in order to reduce expenditure and avoid invalid investment to the greatest extent, the construction intensity of its company has reduced two -thirds. For projects or fields, if the initial sales of a project are poor, the de -chemical rate is not high, or the city or location is poor, the willingness to continue to invest funds is not high.

The executive told the Economic Observer that the construction intensity of two -thirds of the construction was not just the choice of the real estate company. He predicts that the decline in the construction intensity of the entire real estate industry is almost this proportion.

The decline in construction intensity means that some projects will not be delivered on time, especially for projects with insufficient balance of pre -sale fund supervision accounts. Confidence and expectations.

The person in charge of the above sales also stated that the sensitivity of buyers' sensitivity to potential postponed delivery risks exceeded most people's expectations. Even projects with sufficient balance and normal construction of pre -sale funds supervision accounts. In this way, the government is involved to ensure delivery on time.

He believes that in the context of such a highly sensitive home buyer, the sales of housing will gradually be disintegrated, and "whether the future housing sales can continue to exist."

Tighten and then pine

This round of real estate down began in July 2021.

At the end of 2020, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Housing and Urban -Rural Development held a symposium on key housing enterprises to officially introduce the "three red lines" policy; then, in early 2021, the "two concentrations" and 22 cities' concentrated land supply systems in the bank were successively implemented; 2021 In July, eight departments including the Ministry of Housing and Construction jointly issued a document to rectify the order of the real estate market.

Starting from Evergrande explosion, financial institutions began to carry out loans of real estate. Local governments have rigorously supervised pre -sale funds. In addition to the decline in the real estate market, the risk of liquidity of real estate companies has become increasingly expanded. It also gradually realizes the severity.

In October 2021, the central bank proposed that some financial institutions had an error in the understanding of the "three -line and four grades" and needed to maintain the stable and continuous release of real estate credit. The macro -control policy has begun to shift from tightening to relaxation. Since then, the central bank and the CBRC have repeatedly emphasized support for rational financing and real estate credit.

Although the real estate financing policy has been relaxed, due to the increasingly tense mobility of housing companies, a large number of private enterprise financing environment has not improved substantially. In addition to the improvement of development loans and mortgage loans, other financing is still difficult, especially credit bond issuance is almost as private enterprises. insulation.

Under a series of heavy punch, in the second half of 2021, the real estate market began to fall and continued to this day. However, thanks to the market in the first half of 2021, the sales amount of commercial housing in 2021 hit a historical record of 18 trillion yuan.

Since entering 2022, the regulatory policy has continued to adhere to the attitude of relaxation, local governments have continued to relax the "four limits" policies, and gradually progressing from third- and fourth -tier cities to first and second -tier cities. At the same time, the credit policy has been further relaxed. The interest rate of the first house in most cities has been less than 5%, and the loan cycle of mortgage loans has been reduced from half a year to about one month. Most insiders believe that the policy has bottomed out.

Since March this year, a new round of outbreaks, including many cities including Shanghai and Beijing, have caused physical isolation and residential income effects. Although the regulation and control policies have continued to relax, the transaction of the property market continues to decline until April The sales amount of the top 100 housing companies decreased by about 60 % year -on -year.

Entering May, with the improvement of the epidemic in some cities, and the release of the previous backlog, the property market began to enter the restoration period. According to Wind data, 30 large and medium -sized cities rose 9%month -on -month, of which the increase in first- and second -tier cities exceeded 10 percentage points. After the bottom of May, since June, due to the end of the semi -annual performance assessment period of housing companies, it has strengthened the discounts of its projects. In addition, most cities have been lifted and controlled. The increase of 74%, the year -on -year decrease was narrowed to 7.2%.

If according to the momentum of June, the possibility of fully restoration in the real estate market in the second half of the year has further increased, but the hidden concerns of the decline in construction intensity broke out at this time. Due to expected delivery on time, some project buyers in some cities such as Zhengzhou and other cities should be collectively collectively used to collectively collectively use collectives to collectively collectively use collectives to collectively collectively use collectives to collectively collectively collectively use collectives. The statement announced that the supply would be disconnected and spread quickly to more than 300 projects. The property market itself was fragile. In July, the real estate market was adjusted. The year -on -year decrease of the transaction area of ​​30 new houses in large and medium -sized cities expanded to 36.9%.

Where to go

In the first half of the year, the price of development enterprises in place was reduced by 25%year -on -year, of which deposits, pre -collection and individual mortgage loans decreased by 38%and 25%respectively; land purchase area decreased by 48%year -on -year, land transaction price decreased by 46%year -on -year; national housing prices decreased year -on -year decrease 8 percentage points.

From the perspective of housing companies, the sales amount of real estate companies such as Shimao, Zhongnan, Sunac, Zhongliang, Greenland, Yajule, Xuhui, Jinke, Excellence, Rongxin, and Midea all decreased by more than 50%; Xincheng, Zhongjun, Country Garden The decline in housing companies such as Longhu is also around 40%, and the riverside in private enterprises have minimum to 22%.

In contrast, the sales amount of central enterprises, state -owned enterprises and mixed ownership enterprises has been relatively small, all within 50%. Among them, China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, Poly, Huafa, Ocean, and Yuexiu decline in less than 30%. Far higher than private enterprises.

Under the current situation, how real estate is out of crisis is a common concern for all circles.

For the future property market, sales staff Xu Ying expressed optimism. She said that even if the real estate market is really not enough, Beijing as a first -tier city will still maintain a relatively strong demand. "Since 2019, the demand has basically been improved. , Improving the stock can also feed many developers. "

According to Xinhua News Agency, on July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting, and once again emphasized that "the real estate market must be stabilized, and the house insists on the positioning of the house to live and not for speculation. Support rigid and improved housing needs, compact local government responsibilities, and keep interactive buildings and stabilize people's livelihood. "

This is also the first time that the Politburo Meeting has proposed a "guarantee building". Prior to this, market rumors have approved a 30 billion yuan fund, of which CCB invested 50 billion yuan and the central bank invested 30 billion yuan for insurance delivery. The insiders of the CCB confirmed the news to the Economic Observer, but the news was not confirmed by an authoritative agency.

In the opinion of the above TOP30 housing companies, the insurance delivery is aimed at the sales volume items, and it cannot change the liquidity of housing companies. However, whether it will improve the expectations of the real estate market, it is not yet judged. He believes that if you want to fully restore market confidence, the policy of guaranteeing the delivery policy must not only cover the stock project, but also for some new projects. The projects of most private enterprises need similar credit enhancement measures. "

At the end of 2021, the chairman of Xuhui Board of Directors Lin Zhong suggested in an interview with the Economic Observation News that the state led a flat -standard fund to purchase bonds for real estate companies. At the right time, he thought it was the main way to rescue housing companies.

At present, this wish obviously cannot be realized. A large financial institution person told the Economic Observer that in the context of priority insurance, more care is buyers rather than housing companies.

He further stated that even if it is insurance delivery, for financial institutions, it is not for all the items to be delivered. "It must be a discussion, and the degree of refinement will be very high. Of course You can only know if you land on the ground. "

The stalls are big! Excessive debt to build scenic spots, Famen Temple, Taibai Mountain and other cultural tourism platform trapped in debt, let state -owned enterprises dare to work, private enterprises, and foreign companies dare to invest. Rescue enterprise

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