Experts round table talk 丨 The strongest high temperature in 61 years will it affect the future high temperature will be the new normal?
Author:Red Star News Time:2022.08.20
↑ Will the strongest high temperature in 61 years be the new normal? Let's listen to what 4 experts say
Red Star News reporter 丨 Rodini intern 丨 Cao Yan Yu Yanya
Responsible editor 丨 Editor Deng Yiguang 丨 Pengjiang
This summer, my country's continuous high temperature weather has repeatedly refreshing the highest temperature historical value. According to the Central Meteorological Observatory, it continued to issue high -temperature red warnings on August 19. This is the 31st day since the issuance of high -temperature warning on July 21, and the 9th day of the high -temperature red warning.
What impact will continuous high temperature weather, and will it become normal in the future? Red Star journalists invite Qian Weihong, a professor at the Department of Atmospheric Ocean Science, School of Physics at the School of Physics of Peking University, Wang Yuanfeng, director Gao Yan, chief physician of the Department of Emergency Medicine of the General Hospital, discussed what high -temperature weather will bring to humans and the environment and how to deal with it.
1. Talk about high temperature climate
Large intensity, wide range and duration, which is a manifestation of this high temperature
Red Star News: The recent weather can be regarded as the "burning roasting" mode. Just two days ago (August 17), the National Climate Center was monitored and evaluated. From June 13 this year Comprehensive intensity has reached the strongest value since 1961 with a complete meteorological observation record. As of August 15, the high -temperature incident has continued for 64 days, the longest time since 1961 (more than 62 days in 2013). What kind of concept is "the strongest high temperature since 1961"?
Qian Weihong, a professor at the Department of Atmospheric Science at the School of Physics at the School of Physics at the School of Physics, Meteorology: There is a judgment based on the "comprehensive intensity", which is based on three indicators. The first indicator is the strength index, such as the high temperature of 30 degrees Celsius and 40 degrees Celsius, and the strength is different; the second is the range indicator, such as 300,000 square kilometers and 400,000 square kilometers, the range is different; the third one; the third one; It is duration, 50 days and 60 days, and the duration is different. If these three indicators can be satisfied: large, strong, and long, then the impact will be great. Therefore, high -temperature weather is determined by the combination of 3 indicators. Sorting and integrating all high temperature events since 1961 will be concluded that the conclusion of "the strongest high temperature weather since 1961" will be concluded.
Red Star News: What are the specific performances or characteristics of this high temperature weather?
Qian Weihong: First, in terms of intensity, Hubei, Chongqing, and some sites in Hebei and Yunnan have the temperature of 44 degrees Celsius and the intensity is very high. Second, the high temperature range above 40 degrees Celsius is also the largest in history. Third, the high temperature duration also exceeded 62 days in 2013. Therefore, from the three indicators, the high strength, wide range, and long duration are the performance of this high temperature. The consequences are high -temperature heat waves, large areas of drought, and then the runoff of the river decreases.
Red Star News: How is the weather that continues to high temperature? What are the specific performance and characteristics?
Qian Weihong: High temperature weather and atmospheric circulation system, which is related to the high -pressure system. The abnormal high pressure can be gradually increased from other places and stabilized from other places one to two weeks ago. It is necessary to wait for a typhoon or land low pressure to impact it. It will change in strength. For example, in the past two days, there are abnormal low -pressure entry in the north, and North China and Jianghuai will cool down. The longer the abnormal high -pressure stay, the longer the duration of the heat wave.
Such an abnormal high pressure, the larger the range, the stronger it will be. These disturbance systems are fighting each other, competing for the ground, like a battlefield. These disturbance systems last for a long time lead to extreme weather incidents. The "hot wind, wind and rain" we often say refers to the large -scale and land thermal comparison comparison to form abnormal atmospheric circulation, that is, abnormal winds; wind and waterlogging, high temperature and low temperature, that is, abnormal wet and cold and cold abnormalities, that is, abnormal wetness and heat and warmth abnormalities Essence
Red Star News: Will continuous high temperature weather become the new normal in the future? In other words, will the summer be as hot as this year or hotter than this year?
Qian Weihong: Literally, what is the norm? Normal state is an average state for many years. Then I think this new normal may be an average state, changing slowly over time. Regardless of whether it is high or low temperature, it is abnormal and less. Cold and warm are corresponding. It can occur in the same area or occur at the same time. For example, in the winter of 2010, Moscow and western Russia were very cold, but in the summer, the high temperature in western Russia last exceeded historical records, which led to a forest fire and more than 15,000 people.
At the same time, the Siberian region continued to precipitate, and the temperature was low. To the east to the northeast of China, the temperature is high. Moscow goes southeast to Pakistan, with low temperature and floods. Droughts and floods and warmth occurred in different regions at the same time, which is not the same as the global overall temperature condition. There were many sandstorms in Beijing before, and later gradually decreased. Last spring, there seemed to be few strong sandstorms last year. So how to determine a new normal? Is it even less this year to become a new normal? Is that every year in a new normal? Prove that it is not a new normal, but a new abnormal.
Red Star News: In recent years, extreme weather has become more and more frequent, such as high temperature and drought, why do you feel like this? Is the emergence of extreme weather related to global warming?
Qian Weihong: This is two different things. Global warming is an increase in the average temperature, which is the average situation of the entire earth. Different from the high and low pressure abnormalities, abnormal warmth and cold, abnormal drought and flood, and typhoon abnormalities just mentioned. With the improvement of the living standards of Chinese people, the average weight of the entire Chinese population may increase. For example, it may be different diseases for those who are fat and thin. The cause of the disease is not necessarily caused by the improvement of the entire living standard. Therefore, our doctor may focus on the diagnosis and treatment of particularly fat and thin people. We may have more scientists and forecasters to predict the abnormalities, high temperature abnormalities, abnormal low temperature, and abnormal rainfall of the atmospheric circulation. Of course, you must also predict the warmth of the world. These are two different directions.
2. Talk about the economy and society
Slowing climate change Energy systems and economic and society must have revolution
Red Star News: Professor Wang mentioned that the idea of completely relying on scientific and technological development to slow climate change is incorrect. What attitude do you hold on this high temperature weather?
Wang Yuanfeng, director of the Carbon neutralization of Beijing Jiaotong University Carbon neutralization technology and strategic research center: When the temperature is here, it can be completely solved by technology. Can you not be afraid of high temperature in the air -conditioned room? It's not like this. Can some elderly people and children stay in the air -conditioned room all day? Do they have air -conditioning police, sanitation workers, and express brothers who work outside? Therefore, it is incorrect that the view that technology can completely solve high temperature problems is incorrect. Science and technology can completely slow down climate change. This view is incorrect. The International Energy Agency (IEA) published an evaluation report called Energy Technology Perspectives, that is, an energy technology outlook. It is believed that relying on the current technology to achieve a target of 2.0 ° C or carbon neutralization.
Just like we are sick, we think that it is incorrect to rely on doctors to prescribe medicine and do not adjust the mental state and lifestyle. This view is incorrect. Of course, technology is very important, and technology will play a great role, but it is incorrect that technology can solve all problems.
Red Star News: In addition to China, Europe is also experiencing the worst drought in 500 years, and many rivers have almost dried up. Nearly 3,000 people have died at high temperature since July. Faced with such extreme weather, Professor Wang said in an interview that "you must act immediately with a sense of crisis". What kind of consideration is this?
Wang Yuanfeng: Global climate change and rising temperature will bring extreme weather. It is not that we only felt today that the multiple evaluation reports issued by the special committee of the intergovernmental climate change (IPCC) have pointed out that the global warming is already more than the industrial revolution. The front rose around 1.2 ° C, and extreme weather continued to appear.
For this extreme high -temperature weather, I must clearly say that there are more and more regions in the world. The prediction given by research institutions in the United States shows that the United States will appear more than 52 degrees Celsius a day in the summer in the future. I dare not say whether the extreme high temperature weather will become the new normal, but there will be more and more weather, so we ca n’t sit at the sight of it, and we must act immediately. If you do not take action, there will be more and more lives and property losses caused by extreme high temperature.
Red Star News: In the context of continuous high temperature, while the climate changes, my country's environment, economic and social production are affected by varying degrees. For example, the amount of electricity load surged in multiple places, and the efficiency of outdoor operations decreased. How can we slow climate change?
Wang Yuanfeng: There are too many human greenhouse gas emissions, which has led to gradually rising global temperatures and more and more extreme climate. To slow down this phenomenon, we must rely on technology, but we cannot rely entirely on technology. Slowing climate change and achieving carbon neutrality is a big strategy. The world must achieve net zero emissions around 2050, and China will achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. How to achieve carbon neutralization? The first is energy. We must change from fossil energy from the original reliance on coal, oil, and natural gas to solar energy, wind energy and other renewable energy sources. The energy system must have a revolution.
In addition, the economic and social system must have a revolution. From the current extensive and life -saving economy, it has changed to a green low -carbon integrated economic change. Science and technology are undoubtedly important forces, but our production methods and lifestyles must change in order to achieve the transformation of energy methods. Even if we rely on renewable energy in the future, we are not unreasonable and casual. In the future, we turn to a life of renewable energy, nor does it drive every day to drive casually and drive more private cars. We must also have a more saving low -carbon life. We need the revolution of the energy system and the revolution of the economic and social system to slow down climate change. At present, the carbon -China and strategy has just begun. We just took the first step, and there are many jobs very urgent.
Red Star News: How can we adapt to climate change, especially high -temperature weather?
Wang Yuanfeng: Why adapt to climate change, because climate change has to continue. According to global estimates, in the future, we are likely to break through the goal of 1.5 ° C before the global revolution before the industrial revolution. Some people say that this summer is hot, it may be the hottest in the past, but this summer may also be the coolest summer in the future. Because our temperature continues to rise, we must build a climate adaptation type and climate tough society. In June, 17 departments including the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued the "State Adaptable Climate Change Strategy 2035". We must build a climate adaptive society and also build a high -temperature adaptive society. How to build a high -temperature adaptive society? The United Nations Intergovernmental Climate Change Organization (IPCC) mentioned 4 steps. In the first step, there must be a scientific prediction and evaluation of the future high temperature development. By 2030 and 2050, what will happen to the world's high temperature will not only require climate scholars to study, but also combine the economy and society Development because it is interactive. Second, we must do planning, and there must be high -temperature action plans. We must make a plan in advance to make a plan for the construction of high -temperature adaptive and high -temperature tough cities. Take action is the third step.
In the past, we had no experience in building high -temperature adaptive and high -temperature tough society. Therefore, it is very important to evaluate the plans and actions we have done, and continuously feedback to do better. These four steps are clear, but we need to work hard. This is not only a problem of climate, but also a comprehensive factors of climate, economy, society, science and technology, and population, and establish a non -linear model for prediction. High -temperature adaptive society and high temperature tough society are well built.
Red Star News: Has the earth's current hot and cold regulation weakened?
Wang Yuanfeng: In fact, our earth is in crisis. This sentence is just a indicator from high temperature. The UN Environment Agency published a report Making Peace with Nature in 2021, that is, "Harmony with Nature" states that the earth is in a triple crisis. The first is the climate crisis, the global climate warms, and the extreme climate is more and more. Second, the crisis of loss of biological diversity. The loss of global biodiversity is closely related to climate change. The third is the crisis of pollution, and more than 7 million people are killed every year due to environmental pollution. Therefore, we should not use this year's high temperature as a general incident. UN Secretary -General Gutres calls on the world to enter the "climate emergency" in 2020. Pollutants and greenhouse gas are discharged more, and the ability to regulate the earth is weakened, so that the environment of human living is in the crisis!
We must warn this high temperature. Extreme climate changes are not just high temperatures. Next year, next year, there may be extreme cold waves, heavy rain, and extreme strong winds. The earth where human survival is indeed in crisis.
3. Talk about urban governance
High temperatures bring trouble to the long -term perspective of urban disasters, and "tough cities" should be built
Red Star News: Fighting high temperature weather is also a challenge to urban governance. Recently, several mountain fires occurred under high temperature weather. Some front -line workers heat stroke due to the temperature control requirements of the operating environment, and the power grid in some areas was overloaded. If extreme weather becomes the norm, what does our city become, and what are the problems of urban governance in high temperature weather?
Wan Yanhua, a professor at the School of Architecture and Urban Planning of Huazhong University of Science and Technology: These cases lies in the impact of high temperature on urban governance. The government is a provider of public goods. For example, when the supply of water, it is raining at high temperatures, and rains will be drought, which will bring lack of water resources. Therefore, the supply of water has brought great problems. This is a problem. Another is the supply of electricity. Because to cool down, a large amount of electricity is needed, and the electric load will increase. It may be limited to industrial electricity. This will cause trouble for our production and our energy supply. Bringing disasters, such as short circuit and overloading of the circuit, may also cause fires such as forest fires, which also causes trouble to our urban disaster governance. The destruction of the environment is also very large, and high temperatures can cause a lot of bacteria to breed and cause garbage corruption. In addition, it may also affect traffic, such as cracking roads or spontaneous combustion of private cars, traffic accidents, etc.
Red Star News: High -temperature weather has many impacts on urban life, such as cracking roads and garbage corruption. What issues do the public need to attach importance to? How can citizens get along with high temperature weather? In order to cope with high temperature weather, what methods are officials carried out urban governance to reduce the impact of high temperature weather?
Wan Yanhua: How the government faces and how to do it in governance may be divided into short -term and long -term. In the short term, it can be made through artificial rainfall and other measures. At present, Hubei has done this job, and this work across the country is also doing this work to gradually alleviate the long -term high temperature phenomenon. In terms of internal governance, more care is needed to give disadvantaged groups. For example, all the places with cool spaces such as subways and shopping malls must be opened to make it unavailable, or residents who are affected by the lack of electricity can go to the high temperature weather with air -conditioning space. For example, we have some water attractions, sprinklers, etc., which can be used for conventional urban governance and reduce some temperature. In the long run, we still have to return to the proposition of the tough city.
Red Star News: You mentioned before that the concept of "tough city" is still discussing. How do you understand the connotation of the tough city? When we talk about tough cities, what should we pay attention to? Wan Yanhua: The tough city is a model of urban development in our current disasters more frequent and more serious. Toughness includes adaptability and elasticity. Specific to the planning angle, we think that the elastic space is falling on the blue and green space. Lan is water. Professor Qian also talked about the lower pads. The surface of the water is different from other deserts or other grounds. Then the green space is the green space of the park, and the blue and green space is the big one is the landscape, forests and lakes. The blue and green space actually causes a cold island effect that is relative to the hot island effect that we know in the past, which is the cold source.
For example, there is a large area of forests, which have sunlight on it, underneath, and the overcast is cold, cold air sinks, and hot air floats. So under the forest, there has always been a cold source. From the perspective of cold island effects, if some blue and green spaces are evenly distributed in the middle of the city, it should have a good effect on the cooling of high temperature.
Red Star News: In urban planning, is there any specific indicators taking consideration how to alleviate the effect of urban hot island? Is there any institutional and legal requirements for the green construction of cities in our country?
Wan Yanhua: Theoretically there are these indicators control and requirements. There are "green land rate" requirements in our city planning. This indicator is a compulsory indicator. In the micro perspective, no matter a community or a unit, there are green land rate requirements. The same is true in cities, and the green space rate in the industrial park has reached 50%. Then the green space becomes a cold source of a cold island. We also have requirements for the surface rate, but because of the differences in the north and the south, the indicators are not uniform. The north may be 8%, and the south may be 10%. That is to say, whether the lake is or the river. Essence The Ministry of Housing Construction proposed that 300 meters see green, 500 meters of garden, 1,000 meters see water, and blue -green space is also included.
The ventilation channel is also a good means to solve the high temperature. The ventilation channel is of great significance to the south. Our country is the northwest wind, the cold wind of Siberia, and the southeast wind in summer. As far as my country's terrain and landforms are concerned, the southeast direction has a summer wind in the city to play a role in cooling. There are also some micro -research. High -rise buildings also have an impact on temperature. The temperature of every 100 meters above sea level decreases by 0.6 ° C. However, we now have a suppression of high -rise buildings, mainly risks and fire protection requirements. In fact, there are many topics for climate change from planning indicators, spatial structures, ventilation corridors, to architectural forms. If you want to build a building, then the green space on the ground will be reduced. According to the requirements, you must control the green space. Any developer or a community has a green space rate.
4. Talk about disease
The basic principle of fever can prevent treatment of treatment is below 38.5 degrees Celsius within 2 hours
Red Star News: When it comes to high -temperature production, we have seen cases that are constantly reporting to death due to heat irritation. At first glance, this name is relatively unfamiliar. In fact, thermal radiation disease is also called severe heat stroke. Is heat stroke so terrible? Who is easy to get fever?
Gao Yan, chief physician of the Emergency Medicine Department of the Northern Theater General Hospital: The term "thermal radiation disease" is not just strange among ordinary people, but many doctors have no clear concept. In fact, in the process of treatment of our professional doctors, fever is the heaviest in severe heat stroke. Its mortality rate is very high. After the occurrence, many doctors are easy to miss the best opportunity during the treatment process.
Two types of thermal radiation disease, one is labor -intensive fever, and the other is non -labor thermal radiation disease. We usually say that non -labor fever is classic thermal radiation disease.
Labor fever often occurs in athletes, soldiers, and workers who do strenuous exercise. Non -labor -intensive fever often occurs on the elderly, children, and hot -habitation uniforms at home. In fact, fever is exposed to the heat environment, or with high temperature, high humidity, and strenuous exercise, which is the concept of labor -intensive thermal radiation disease. The function of heat production and heat dissipation is unbalanced, and the heat dissipation ability is usually reduced. Its pathogenesis is very clear.
Most of the classic thermal radiation diseases occur in the elderly who are at home and have some basic diseases. This situation is relatively small in children. There are people who have to work. Most of the patients we have rescued in recent years are from traffic police, sanitation workers, and construction workers. Of course, there are some other people. The reason why fever is valued is because it is very harmful and progress is particularly fast. In the past three years, there are also some people who do nucleic acid and wear protective clothing. They are hot in themselves, and then wearing a protective clothing, thermal radiation disease will progress quickly. Some patients have not been rescued.
Red Star News: First -tier workers such as construction workers, sanitation workers, traffic police patrols, and outdoor testers need to take the hot summer to stick to work. What should outdoor workers pay attention to?
Gao Yan: Actually, no matter how serious thermal radiation is or how fast it is, I think the disease is defense and cure. Although the climate environment is changing year by year, it is one after another. There are many management methods that should change. We must flexibly manage. For example, when sanitation workers work, we can appropriately reduce working hours, such as half an hour of replacement, including outdoor operations such as traffic police and construction workers, and can suspend work. There are also some people who may have some hot training training. The conditions are good now. Some white -collar workers work in the building. The air conditioner is too low, and the outdoor temperature difference is particularly large. At this time, it is easy to occur. We usually turn on the air conditioner at 26 degrees Celsius. When we sleep at night, it can solve the problem to 28 degrees Celsius. These are all methods that require us to implement it.
Red Star News: What emergency rescue and treatment should be adopted if encountering patients with fever irritation, especially for the elderly with basic diseases?
Gao Yan: Once such a disease occurs in the crowd, the patient should be handled well immediately. For example, in a high temperature place, the patient immediately moves to a cool place, or a place with electric fans and air -conditioning, and quickly supplement the patient with appropriate water. If there are some serious patients, you can transfer it to the hospital at the same time. The whole process must have cooling and hydrating, protecting the airway, and safeizing it to hospitals with the ability to treat thermal radiation. This is the most basic requirement. Because at a high temperature, the patient's body temperature is particularly high, even reaching 40 degrees Celsius. And we have the most basic principle of treating heat irritation, that is, we must be reduced to less than 38.5 degrees Celsius within two hours. Its damage to organs will be significantly reduced, and a timely treatment will be obtained.
Red Star News: Some netizens commented that after a long time in the sun, symptoms such as dizziness and brain swelling and shortness of breath. Do you have some small tricks to relieve heat and prevent heat stroke?
Gao Yan: It is also very important to protect himself in life. Sometimes it is the easiest to wear a sun hat, put on some sunscreen clothes, and hit the parasol. There are also some classic thermal radiation diseases. Some elderly people never turn on the air conditioner and are unwilling to open the windows and open the door. At this time, we can use some methods, such as not to put the elderly in the air -conditioned room, but use the door to use the air conditioner in another space, which can achieve a prevention effect.
It is also possible to move the patient to the ventilation conditions. In fact, the most important thing is that when the humidity is as high as 90%, it is often more important than the temperature. It will affect the incidence of thermal radiation. The farthest in Daxing'an Ridge, the humidity is as high as 90%, and the temperature can be fever when the temperature is 25 degrees Celsius. This is the characteristics of this disease. It has no entire heat production and heat dissipation ability. The entire skin is like a layer of plastic. The feeling of cloth. Therefore, in this process, we must pay attention to ventilation and cooling, even if there is a small river groove next to it, it can solve the problem.
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