The faucet is heavy!Has the photovoltaic sector turned off?——Doda Dialogue Dr. Niu Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

This week, the three major A -share indexes are a decline as a whole. In this process of rising, the new energy track led by photovoltaic has played a vital role. However, many stocks in the photovoltaic sector were adjusted sharply on Friday, and it also had negative feedback on the index. It can be said that "Cheng is also Xiao He, and it is also Xiao He."

How to view the adjustment of the new energy track brought by the message? From a technical perspective, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is also in a delicate position, facing the choice of direction. What should I look at? Under the adjustment, which sections have opportunities to have a chance? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Da Ge, hello, in the note article on Thursday I see your point of view is "the market is going to change the market", the decline in the market on Friday is to confirm your point of view, but the current market still can't see it. To the choice of direction, I don't know how to deal with it?

Daida: First of all, the fundamental situation, the current background and some economic and financial data show that the road of economic recovery is slowly tortuous, and the liquidity of funds is relatively loose. However, due to the disturbance of the epidemic, the company did not dare to blindly expand its investment. The latest July CPI data rises, PPI data is declining, which will put pressure on the profit end of the enterprise.

These situations determine that the market is unlikely to have a big bull market as a whole, and the looseness of liquidity determines that the market does not have a continuous downturn. It still belongs to the market with stock games. The overall direction is to continue to shock. Therefore, in terms of operation, you can pay attention to the mainstream of the market.

In the notes on Thursday, I predicted the change of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index that may be brewing, but from the market performance on Friday, in fact, this still cannot be regarded as a variable disk. In the range of the interval, the index came to the lower edge of the shock after the decline in Friday. This is a very delicate position, which is in a state of up and down. When dealing with, you can also maintain a position that can be available for offense and defense.

So, will the market continue to weaken? I personally feel that I can't see it at this time. The market on Friday is a decline in volume. Generally speaking, as long as it is not a decline in volume at a high level, it is not a bad thing. Of course, the decline in volume does indicate that some of the funds are shipped, but from the perspective of Friday, there is also the meaning of funds.

When I was chatting with Dr. Niu last week, I mentioned that the relationship between the track stocks and the heavy blue chip of the track stocks. Switch high and low. However, from the previous market's high or low transfers, it has not succeeded. Will it succeed this time? It should be said that the probability is relatively greater.

The absolute backbone in the new energy track in this round is photovoltaic, and the photovoltaic sector has a metering mid -yin line on Friday. In addition, this sector has accelerated before. At present, there is a possibility of staged heads.

There is also a more representative sector. It is car parts. On Thursday, Dago said more clearly. It is more likely to make a relatively long box shock to digest the pressure.

Therefore, Da Ge felt that he should pay attention to the possibility of market high switching.

Due to the decline in the market volume on Friday, the situation of the peripheral market is superimposed, and the actions of inertial exploration of the market at the beginning of next week will not be ruled out at the beginning of next week, but as long as the current structure of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is not effectively destroyed, there will still be the kinetic energy of the upper and rushing kinetic energy. Essence In particular, the structure of the shocking of the box after the detection is more significant.

Technically speaking, the space for visiting is limited, and the limit position can temporarily see strong support near 3230 points.

Dr. Niu: Since Dago mentioned the significant adjustment of new energy track stocks on Friday, everyone must know the reason for the severe frustration. Does this mean that the opportunity of new energy is over? What are the opportunities for sections?

Daida: The new energy sector, which has risen for nearly a week, has ushered in adjustment and driving index adjustments. The photovoltaic sector fluctuates a lot on Friday, mainly because there is a large industrial event in the market that continues to ferment: Tongwei shares won the component for the first time in the latest photovoltaic bidding, and the price is a little lower than other component companies. Therefore, the market expects that Tongwei shares will start the mixing component link and fight the price war, so component companies such as Tiantuangneng and Jing'ao Technology have fallen sharply.

The photovoltaic industry chain includes upstream silicon materials, silicon wafers, midstream batteries and backboards, glass, and some auxiliary materials, and then to downstream components and photovoltaic operators (green power). This time Tongwei Co., Ltd. is directly compared, which is equivalent to directly opening up the entire photovoltaic industry chain. From the silicon material to the components, all of them have been taken. Because it has the most scarce silicon production capacity, Tongwei shares are compared to other non -integrated one compared to other non -integrated one. The component factories will have more cost advantages, so the strength of price warfare will be played. In other words, as long as Tongwei wants to fight a price war, other component factories must stand side by side.

The news directly benefits Tongwei shares and can bring valuations; component manufacturers without silicon materials, after all, they will bring logical changes. Therefore, we can see that many photovoltaic components have fallen a huge amount of decline. This is obviously that some institutions are shipping, and they must be cautious about such companies for the time being.

Of course, there are advantages and disadvantages of everything. The price of the upstream and midstream of photovoltaic and middle reaches. Green power operators naturally enjoy it, and in the note on Wednesday I also mentioned the opportunity of Green Electricity. But then again, there is no sign of excess production capacity in photovoltaics. Can the price war really fight? Maybe you need to observe. Some new technologies with rapid volume expectations will not end immediately. The fell of photovoltaic on Friday also brought "bad" other sectors, such as wind power, lithium battery, semiconductor, consumer electronics, etc. In this, Dago felt that it is necessary to distinguish it. The photovoltaic is a real fall, and the other plates that have been brought down are indirectly affected and cannot be generalized. Especially the recent semiconductor, consumer electronics and other sectors of rotation. No signs of the end can be seen, and you can continue to pay attention.

In addition, from the market on Friday, breeding and coal have gone well. For the breeding sector, it is mainly a defensive idea, but given the close relationship between pork and CPI, it is more at present to see the interval vibration and the operation of the interval vibration. The strengthening of the coal mining sector is related to the demand for electricity consumption at high temperature, but in the middle period, it is still considered in terms of performance, which is not suitable for chasing up.

Dr. Niu: In the past two or three days, there have been several important news, such as: Some institutions predict that LPR regulation may exceed 10bp, and new energy vehicles are exempt from purchasing taxes to delay to next year. How to view these messages?

Daida: Following the 10 basis points of MLF "interest rate cuts" on August 15, the National Frequently pointed out that it improves market -oriented interest rate formation and conduction mechanism, gives full play to the guidance of the loan market quotation interest rate, supports the recovery of valid demand for credit, and promotes the reduction of comprehensive financing costs for enterprises. Cost with personal consumer credit. The current market expectation of the LPR reduction in August has increased sharply, which does not rule out that the amplitude exceeds expectations.

The LPR quotation was originally announced on the 20th of each month, but it will be postponed when it comes to holidays, so before the opening of the market tomorrow, you can pay attention to this data. If there is an excellent expectation, then the A -share market will form a favorable booster. Experience proves that LPR reduction can bring rapid repair to credit. With the recovery of wide credit, the water rises can the ship height.

The new energy vehicle sector will be favorable. According to the decision of the National Council, the new energy vehicle will be exempted from the extension of the purchase tax policy of new energy vehicles until the end of 2023, and supports the rights and license indicators on the road; vigorously promote the construction of charging pile construction The scope of support for policy development financial instruments.

The exemption of new energy vehicle purchase tax policies will be extended until the end of 2023. This good news landing can not only cultivate the domestic new energy vehicle market, but also stimulate consumption.

Recently, one of the support policies of new energy vehicles, one after another. On the one hand, my country's new energy vehicle industry has a very good position in the global industry, with the best opportunity to overtake curve; on the other hand, cars are my country's second largest pillar industry, and the industry chain is very large. From the perspective of stability and employment, support is also inevitable.

However, from the performance of A shares, the recent car sector is passivated to related benefits. Therefore, if it is used as a mid -line layout, you can actually wait for a better chance.

Taken together, there are actually many ministries and commissions for the benefits of the "insurance delivery" measures on the weekend. There are also reports of the air, such as the significant adjustment of the outer disk, and the fluctuation of exchange rates, which belong to the situation of long and short interwoven. In general, there is no need to worry about the current market.

The structural differentiation pattern is still the current main tone. Don't think about the market for a large market, and the opportunity is local hotspots in turns, the opportunities of individual stock bands, and the logic of the hype is driven by good news. Therefore, we need to pay more attention to the latest good news of the market, rather than addicted index, predict the ups and downs of the market, and follow the mainstream of the market to focus on the light index.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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