Under the high temperature, how can China's most "good change" super large lake quench thirst?

"Poyang Lake is immersed in the southeast, and some people have measured 360,000 hectares." Zhou Yan, a literati of the Song Dynasty, used a slightly exaggerated method to show Poyang Lake at the beginning of his poem "Poyang Lake".

Perhaps 800 years ago, the Poyang Lake that Zhou Yan saw was indeed so big. Even with the changes in land and urban development, the area of ​​Poyang Lake has been reduced, it is still the largest freshwater lake in China today. But now, Poyang Lake has broken its extremely small value in its waters.

This year's continuous high -temperature weather affects the whole country, and Jiangxi Province, where Poyang Lake is located, is also exposed to the sun. "High temperature leads to the large evaporation volume of Poyang Lake, and this year's precipitation is particularly small, 65%less than the same period, so Poyang Lake is so dry." The reporter said in an exclusive interview.

According to satellite monitoring, the main body of the Poyang Lake and the nearby waters on August 24 were 878 square kilometers, a decrease of 74%from the largest water area monitored on June 27 this year, a record low of history.

However, Zhan Mingjin told each reporter that according to prediction, the drought of Poyang Lake will be clearly relieved in mid -late September. The water and sky of Poyang Lake will be reproduced, but its fragility under extreme weather also proves the urgency and the importance of scientific response at ecological protection.

China's most "good change" Super Lake

Poyang Lake is located in the northern part of Jiangxi Province and is one of the main tributaries in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. It plays an extremely important role in regulating the water level of the Yangtze River, conservation of water, improving local climate, and maintaining ecological balance in the surrounding areas.

Zhan Mingjin told each reporter that Poyang Lake is a natural rivers and lakes, and no one is controlled by intervention methods, such as the sluice. "The advantage of no one is that the ecology is particularly good. Why can Poyang Lake be the hometown of porpoons because it has no human intervention. But it is also because it is naturally through the river lake, so it is difficult for us to control Poyang Lake traffic."

This can also explain why Poyang Lake is known as the most "good" super large lake in China. The Poyang Lake Water system is relatively closed, and it only communicates with the Yangtze River only in the mouth of the lake. The lake surface changes significantly in different seasons, showing the landscape of "high water is lake, low water like river".

The Fengshui period of Poyang Lake is roughly July and August. But in August this year, Poyang Lake was already "low -water -like river". Zhan Mingjin said that in addition to the high evaporation brought by high temperatures, this year's precipitation is particularly small. From June 23 to August 23, the average precipitation in Jiangxi Province was 126.3 mm, which also broke the historical pole value. "Maybe friends in the north will think that this is quite a lot, but Jiangxi's annual water drop is about 1680 mm, and it is not the rainy period of Jiangxi in June to August. According to the historical average, these two months of precipitation will actually actually be in fact. More than 300 mm. "

Data source: Provided by the respondent

The abnormal shrinkage of the water area of ​​Poyang Lake also affects the entire ecological chain like a butterfly effect. The contradiction between humans and animals, rural and cities, industries and agriculture has intensified water.

"When the water resources are sufficient, everyone’s contradiction with water is relatively small. But now because of the water, as a large amount of water, as a large grain -producing province, the residents of the lake must drink water and irrigate. The influence of the biology of the lake area. "Zhan Mingjin said.

"At the moment, we are preferred to ensure the living water of residents, and then agricultural and industrial water. The water resources protection priority in the ecological area can only be temporarily put in the end at this stage. This is also no way."

But the impact of high temperature on the ecological area is lagging and significant, such as migratory birds. Every winter, hundreds of thousands of birds will fly to Poyang Lake to overwinter. This is also the world's largest Hongyan overwintering group.

Poyang Lake winter overwintering migratory bird pictures Source: Nanji Wetland Reserve, Wan Songxian Photo

Zhan Mingjin said that it is currently a period of fish breeding, but high temperatures lead to large -scale drought in the waters, and fish producing eggs is usually produced on aquatic plants. "Now it has become dry grass. Once the eggs are exposed to the sun, it will die. The number of fish will be affected by a lot. For wintering migratory birds, the problem of food food will be obvious, and it may affect the number of winter migratory birds. "

Getting hotter weather: Occasionally inevitable

For meteorological departments in all parts of the country, climate forecasting is a must -have. Zhan Mingjin told each reporter that they are also doing regional climate feasibility arguments, that is, according to local meteorological observation materials, pre -promoting the future climate mechanism to better predict the impact of complex weather systems on Jiangxi Essence

"Whether it is weather forecast or climate prediction, it is based on a certain mathematical model, that is, it is based on a certain probability. But we find that an unexpected phenomenon is that when we use the Gengbei 尓 function, the broad extreme value function The probability of pushing the "100 -year encounter", the data obtained is far lower than the actual observation value. This shows that climate change has caused extreme weather incidents to increase, and extreme events have not followed the probability distribution. "Zhanming Mingming The brocade is called.

The bias of probability is also reflected in the specific season. Zhan Mingjin said that in August and September, Jiangxi would be affected by one or 2 typhoons. The meteorological department also previously hoped that the typhoon this year can bring a sufficient precipitation to alleviate the drought brought by high temperature. But over time, typhoons have become weaker and weaker.

"In fact, since 2018, Jiangxi has gradually decreased by typhoons, especially the typhoon that affects the whole country. But this year its intensity weakening also exceeds our expectations, only some precipitation to parts of Jiangxi Jiangnan. "Poyang Lake Water Area Remote Sensing Monitoring Image Picture Source: Interviewee provided

Zhan Mingjin said that from the perspective of existing research materials, the current influence of typhoons in my country is even north. According to routine, Jiangxi is in the scope of typhoons, but now it is getting weaker and weaker affected by typhoons. "It is really strange, but there is no exact scientific explanation at present. We think it may also be due to some parts of the climate system."

This year's continuous national high -temperature incident is a special case. Its divided into abnormalities from the atmospheric circulation. But from the perspective of climate change, this high temperature event is also inevitable.

Zhan Mingjin explained to reporters that there are positive feedback from climate change. "For example, the reflection rate of the sun and snow is very high, which can reflect the sunlight, but as the global warming is continuously warmed, the snow accumulation of ice has been accelerated to melt, exposing the land, the anti -photo rate of the sun has decreased. A positive feedback. "

"The carbon dioxide life that has caused the global warming is very long, two hundred years, but the carbon dioxide around the world is less than one month around the world." Zhan Mingjin said, "So no matter which country the carbon dioxide emitted by the country, the consequences are all human themselves themselves themselves themselves themselves themselves themselves themselves. ","

Under extreme weather: people work hard, help the gods

The drought impact of Poyang Lake is widely influenced. According to statistics from the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Emergency, from July 15th to 17:00, drought disasters have caused 104 counties (cities, districts, functional areas) of 11 districts and cities in the province to be affected by 2.999 million people. 365.3 thousand hectares, with a random collection of 27.6,000 hectares, and a direct economic loss of 2.68 billion yuan.

In the face of the influence, Zhan Mingjin bluntly stated that in addition to the "help", he also depends on "people's efforts".

For example, based on accurate climate predictions this year, Jiangxi Province Flood Control Drought Resistance Headquarters used scientific scheduling to use precipitation at the end of the flood season to reserve sufficient water for the reservoir in the province. The large and medium -sized reservoir water storage of large and medium -sized reservoirs in Jiangxi Province can also alleviate the urgency of agricultural irrigation water through scientific scheduling.

Zhan Mingjin told each reporter that in fact, the Jiangxi Flood Control Command every year will ask the Meteorological Bureau "When is the last rainfall in the flood season?" Then use this period to store the water in the large and medium -sized reservoir in Jiangxi.

"The risk of water storage during the flood season is too high, and it is dangerous when the dam is crushed, but it is necessary to grab the tail storage of tails during the flood season, because Jiangxi has autumn and drought in October and November each year, and water storage is to deal with autumn and drought. We do this every year, but we did not expect to deal with the drought this year to deal with summer dryness. "Zhan Mingjin said.

In addition, artificial rainfall is also an important means of intervention to alleviate drought. However, artificial rainfall does not make rain out of thin air. It needs to wait for rainfall conditions, and then use manual intervention to enhance the rainfall.

Zhan Mingjin also told each reporter that before the beginning of the high temperature, there were no such ways to increase the conditions of rainfall. However, when the area affected by the typhoon had the operating conditions, Jiangxi quickly launched many artificial rainfall operations. "Like yesterday (August 23), it was 14 times, and some light rain was settled.

However, the effect of artificial rainfall is also difficult to quantitatively evaluate. From the current existing three main methods (smoke furnace operation, rocket launcher operation, aircraft operation), the scope and effect of aircraft operations are the best, but there are also existence Certain danger.

"When people work hard, I hope the gods will help. I hope the weather will bring a signal of rainfall in the next weather." Zhan Mingjin said.

Daily Economic News

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