[Circle depth] Investment alert!Multi -country property market is trapped in "new crown foam"

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] U.S. stocks collapse, crude oil fell, property market bubble, commodity retracement ... Driven by the US dollar rate hike, many countries have followed up the implementation of currency tightening policies, which has led to the sharp entry and exit of funds issued by countries due to the addition of the epidemic and affecting various types Risk assets. Foreign media said investors are dealing with the "new crown foam" that has begun to break. "Global Times" reporters in various countries have launched a series of reports of focusing on the "new crown foam" series of reports on the global property market, Bitcoin, and commodities. Through investigations on the real estate market of the United States, Japan, New Zealand and other countries, remind Chinese investors to pay attention to the risk of overseas property markets and avoid "entering the pit."

The United States: Real estate is extremely hot.

According to the latest report of Bloomberg, the housing price rent ratio and house price income of 19 Organization countries, including the United States, were higher than the level before the 2008 financial crisis, indicating that house prices have deviated from the fundamental aspect. Among them, the demand for the US housing market was quickly cooled and sales declined for several months. Analysts said that since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March this year, the almost crazy situation of house prices seems to be gradually converging.

Under the sharp interest rate hike, the US mortgage interest rate has also soared. According to statistics from the US "Mortgage News Daily", the 30 -year mortgage interest rate has risen from 3.29%at the beginning of this year to 6.28%, reaching the highest level since 2008. This caused the demand for the real estate market to be cooled rapidly and caused builders and existing housing sellers to sell prices.

Lawrence Yin, chief economist at the United States Real Estate Association, said that compared with a few months ago, the current mortgage loan costs higher for buyers. For medium -priced houses, monthly mortgages are $ 300 to $ 400, which is a lot of losses for working families. According to the calculation of the Real Estate Association, the price of buying houses is now 55%higher than a year ago.

What is most worried about investors at present is that after the US real estate market is extremely hot, will there be a 2008 subprime mortgage crisis? Professor Peter Ireland, who is mainly engaged in monetary economics and macroeconomics research in the United States, said in an interview with the Global Times in the United States: "I think this will not happen." He believes that if the global economy is released, Slow, it will be more like a conventional decline, not a crisis.

According to the US Real Estate Association report, since 2015, before the epidemic, China is the largest source of foreign buyers in the United States; from 2020 to 2021, Chinese buyers fell to third and ranked after Canada and Mexico. In an interview with the Global Times reporter, Wang Yifei, the founder of Boston Dreams International Real Estate, said that when purchasing U.S. real estate, Chinese buyers often follow domestic buying housing ideas. For example Prejudice, but in the United States, uniform houses are usually not newly built. In addition, buying a house in the United States to find a good agent agent. The agent must be familiar with the local real estate market and grasp the economic cycle. Wang Yifei particularly emphasized that the "local" mentioned here refers to the town where the real estate is located and even the block.

More than 500 Chinese investors Japanese real estate speculation stepping on thunder

The topic "More than 500 people in Japan’ s real estate in Japan ’s real estate or drifting water" recently appeared on the Internet hot search. Under the introduction of many well -known intermediary agencies in China, more than 500 Chinese investors in Beijing, Shanghai and other places purchased real estate projects of the Japanese Toyotomi Commercial Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Toyotomi Company"), but then found that the investment income promised at the beginning could not be Without the realization of property rights, Toyotomi said that it was in trouble, the capital chain had a crisis, and hundreds of millions of investment funds of Chinese investors or water drifting. In recent years, the Chinese have been purchasing real estate in Japan to become an investment method. However, incidents such as "stepping on thunder" and "falling into the pit" have occurred, and a series of legal issues have been exposed.

Under the packaging of Toyotomi, the thunderous project looks very "beautiful". Toyotomi promised: before delivery, you can pay a certain income to buyers; after delivery, you can rent operations, and buyers can also obtain the corresponding rental income. It is worth noting that Toyotomi has set up some traps in the contract from the beginning. For example, the actual translation of Sino -Japanese bilinguals does not match, there is a tendency to misleading, and controversy must also resort to the domestic courts of Japan. In addition, Toyotomi Company also used the loopholes of the Chinese investor's epidemic to go to the realistic investigation to over -beautify the real estate project.

In fact, in order to attract Chinese buyers, a real estate company established by a Chinese in Osaka boldly revealed in an interview with Japan's "Sankei Shimbun" last year, "A set of apartments in Shanghai can buy a building in Osaka. "". In May of this year, the website of Japan's "Modern Modern" published an article entitled "China's wealthy layer began to buy Kyoto Real Estate". These articles seem to be an intangible publicity, which makes some Chinese investors worry that buying late is to buy compensation, forming a "snap -up" psychology.

In an interview with the Global Times, President Nomura, the president of the Japanese Overseas Chinese Real Estate Association, who is familiar with the China -Japan Real Estate Trading, said that for Chinese investors, the most direct power purchase momentum is the added value of investment brought about by the devaluation of the yen, plus plus It is inconvenient to go to Japan to see the house under the epidemic, so many people choose to watch the house online and other convenient means, resulting in the follow -up of the mines easily.

Peng Tao, a senior lawyer of Beijing Yingye (Shanghai) Law Firm, is responsible for legal services related to China -Japan Investment all year round. He told the Global Times reporter that overseas real estate agencies can be roughly divided into two categories: "information" and "deep participation": "Provide it "Information refers to a bridge for Chinese buyers and foreign developers to charge a certain fee in proportion. In the information providing real estate consultation, whether it includes overseas real estate, there is no explicit regulation in my country's laws. "In -depth participation" refers to the deeper level of participation in real estate transactions, and there are many cases of "instantaneous turn". In the case of Peng Tao's scriptures, many such disputes. Some domestic intermediaries are linked to overseas agencies and developers, first buy real estate at a low price, and then sell them to Chinese investors. Although investors feel "cost -effective", they actually buy a lot of money. Real estate.

Peng Tao believes that the biggest problem generated during the transaction is foreign exchange. Due to my country's current foreign exchange control, it is difficult for overseas real estate and purchase housing to leave the country through regular paths. Some overseas agencies will provide "help" to this, such as introducing "private exchange" channels and even fictional transactions. These will undoubtedly violate my country's foreign exchange management regulations. Because these are illegal channels, proofs such as proof of payment housing will face heavy difficulties. Even if investors are finally victims, they may accept corresponding administrative penalties to be tracked to constitute criminal criminal responsibility in accordance with the law.

Peng Tao told the Global Times reporter that Japan itself has undergone the broken bubble of real estate, and the trend of decreased population is very obvious. Except for some specific locations such as Tokyo, Osaka and other cities, the prices of most real estate do not rise and fall. In addition, intermediaries often only publicize the so -called "high returns" to consumers, but they do not inform as owners, and they must face various expenses such as real estate tax and management fees. The actual income is far less than expected.

In an interview with the Global Times, the Chinese partner of the Japanese Verybest Law Firm, who is engaged in China -Japan investment business year, said that if more than 500 people ’s Japanese speculative house explosion reports are true, it is suggested that Chinese investors find domestic intermediaries to protect their rights. One is that it is more difficult to defend overseas rights. The other is reported that the purchase of a house for Chinese investors is to call private accounts, which is difficult to prove that investors have a buying and selling contract relationship with Japanese real estate companies.

New Zealand: The most inappropriate time to invest in real estate

It is no exaggeration to describe the rapid changes in the New Zealand real estate market since the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia. According to the latest report released by Bloomberg, the bubble of the New Zealand real estate market is the worst among the OECD countries. Data show that in 2021, New Zealand housing prices won a new record of 30%. However, the New Zealand Federal Reserve Bank's interest rate hikes began in the second half of last year, poured a pot of cold water in the real estate market. Economists predict that housing prices in New Zealand are expected to fall by 10%this year, which will fall by 20%from the 2021 high. It can be said that the high "bubble" and the expectations of house prices in the next few years have made New Zealand economists generally believe that it is currently "the most unsuitable to invest in real estate".

With the influx of Chinese immigrants and international students in previous years and the rapid rise in housing prices in New Zealand, the number of Chinese people buying real estate in New Zealand has also increased significantly. However, due to the unfamiliarity of the New Zealand real estate policy and the home purchase process, and the completion of house purchase without field inspections, the disputes and litigation caused by the Chinese people in New Zealand's house purchase in New Zealand are also increasing.

Ms. Shi, a registered lawyer of New Zealand, who focuses on real estate trading, told the Global Times reporter that in principle, the real estate transaction process in New Zealand is relatively complete and safe. However, in actual operation, many house buyers will still be damaged or deceived. Especially for overseas people, it is strange to New Zealand's real estate -related laws and regulations, operating habits, and the nature and risks of the real estate itself, and it is easier to "enter the pit" in procedures.

For example, a large number of houses built in New Zealand from the 1990s to the beginning of this century. The exterior walls used new gypsum board materials. However, due to the problem of material quality and construction methods, many houses that use the material have leaked water, which brings hidden dangers to the structure and safety of the house. The cost of replacing the exterior wall is equivalent to 30%or even higher the value of the entire house. Therefore, the sales price of such houses in the market is usually significantly lower than that of masonry or wooden exterior walls. Overseas people who have first entered the New Zealand real estate market are difficult to understand these details, and it is easy to be "flickered" at a low price for "picking up cheap" psychology. However, after signing a house purchase contract, such houses are likely to be unable to purchase house insurance and apply for bank loans because of exterior wall materials.

A real estate agent in New Zealand told the Global Times reporter that when the local New Zealand people encountered the plasterboard outer wall house of this age, they usually registered the building to conduct a comprehensive test of the house at the scene, and issued the quality of the house to the quality of the house, and issued the quality of the house Qualified report. If you need to apply for a loan, the buyer will submit the report to the insurance company and the bank in advance for pre -trial, and the purchase contract will be signed if it can be insured and obtained a loan.

Another error that Chinese home buyers often make in New Zealand are ignoring "procedural fairness". One situation is to save 2%to 4%of the intermediary fees, aside from the intermediary for "private sale" of real estate. The reporter also learned that many Chinese home buyers were in order to save 20,000 to 30,000 New Zealand (1 New Zealand dollar or about 4.1 yuan) intermediary fees, and they bought a private house. New Zealand currently stipulates that overseas people cannot purchase second -hand houses in unique or town villas. At the same time, the Chinese living habits in the country are also mainly apartments. Therefore, Chinese buyers who are damaged in New Zealand due to the "bad tail" of the apartment in New Zealand are damaged. Not a minority. In addition, it is also important to choose a reliable lawyer. In order to save some lawyers' fees, many Chinese home buyers chose to hire lawyers to participate in real estate delivery after signing a house purchase contract. However, Lawyer Shi said that in fact, the consulting and suggestions provided by the buyers before the contract signing were the most critical part of the house purchase transaction. For example, it involves matters such as the delivery period, the proportion of prepaid funds, and the attributes of the land where the house is located. Unfortunately, most of the disputes between the buying and selling of the houses were because the contract did not clearly understand the content before signing. After all, New Zealand's house purchase contract and related documents were English, and they were written in professional legal vocabulary and grammar. Don't say that you don't understand English, it is a person who is good in English in China, and it is also difficult to understand the actual meaning and potential risks of the text on the contract.

[Global Times special reporter Zhang Sisi Global Times reporter Xing Xiaojing Global Times Special Journalist Jiangfeng Global Times Special Correspondent in New Zealand, North Shore]