Where is the direction and opportunity?——Doda Dialogue Dr. Niu Niu

Source: WeChat public account "Daida" (WeChat public account ID: daoda1997)

This week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell 0.93%, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index fell 0.03%, and the GEM index rose 1.28%. Compared with the previous weeks, the index shows a significant deceleration state. This deceleration is on the one hand, on the one hand, it is manifested in the slowdown of the index rising speed and the continuous shrinking of capacity, and on the other hand, it is reflected in the gradual ebb of the mood of the main market in the market.

At the same time, the inflow of incremental funds is slowing. When will the index high -level shock adjustment be broken? What kind of strategy should I use to deal with the market? Today, Dr. Niu and Dago discussed the topics that everyone cared about.

Dr. Niu: Hello, let's talk about the market first. This week's market is difficult to see with the naked eye. How does Dado think of this phenomenon and how do you think of the next market?

Daida: In fact, from the main indexes of A shares alone, they are very obvious to slow down. Last week, when I was chatting with Dr. Niu, I said that the market situation was already weak; if there was no sufficient rest, it would be the end of the crossbow.

Generally speaking, adjustment is mainly two ways: change time and time to change space in space. But for the current rest of the market, it is difficult for me to develop in the market. This requires the help of the sector.

The rebound in this round of market has been more than two months since the end of April, and the main force of the rebound comes from cars and photovoltaic. Let's talk about cars first, which is a hot spot. However, there is a problem. The low level of this section does not measure, but the high level is continuously amplified and the quantity is stagnant. Now, the amount of quantity can shrink, which means that it should be obvious.

For the car sector, my point of view is unchanged, and it is more needed to resolve a long interval shock, and then I can talk about opportunities. As for this sector, you can only wait and see. Of course, there are also funds that are unwilling to end in the car sector market. They will consider other high -standard faucets in the group car sector to make up for the rise, but this requires a lot of effort.

Another more important sector is power equipment, which is closely related to the wind power, photovoltaic, and energy storage of new energy. This sector can be said to be stronger than the current status of the current market, which is stronger than the car. On Friday, the sector index rushed up and fell, and there are currently prototypes of the construction range. The two leading sectors have entered the rest, and the short -term index attack can be said to be difficult.

The more uncertain variables are from the securities company in the financial stocks. This sector has adjusted 17 trading days, and now it has fallen back to the position of the startup. The influence is not as good as before, and you need to observe.

In terms of fundamental terms, because the rising risks in this market is too fast, the repair of fundamentals does not keep up with the pace of market rising. Even with high high boiled growth tracks, from the perspective of valuation and trading indicators, the overall heat is at a historical high, can the industry prosperity be further up? This requires waiting for fundamental data to verify.

From the perspective of funds, according to a previous research report of the brokerage firms, the rebound since the end of April, incremental funds mainly come from northern funds and leverage funds, and public fund issuance has not significantly capacity. In July, the inflow of funds in the north significantly slowed down. In May and June, the average daily inflows of funds in the north were 990 million yuan and 3.65 billion yuan, respectively. From July, it has shrunk to 710 million yuan. Without the promotion of funds, it is difficult to break through the market.

Since the market is a situation where the overall long and long decision is unclear, all we can do is to keep the strains and keep the position that can be retreated.

In the middle period, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index can supplement the gap below, and it is better to step on the support opportunities near 3300 points. In the short term, the Shanghai index on the 20 -day moving average is a short -term adjustment warning line, which has fallen below this line or caused an intensification. At that time, there will be expected to return the 3,300 points of intersection at that time.

Because the transaction amount of the two cities can still be maintained above trillion yuan. In the process of adjusting this sidewalk, adjustments can be treated as opportunities, but you should also pay attention to fast forward and fast out. Do not step on the wrong rhythm. Once you chase and fall, you will lose money.

Dr. Niu: There is a need for adjustment in the mainstream sector. So does Dago think there are other opportunities for the market to participate?

Daida: At present, there are two main categories of market replenishment opportunities. One is the recent increase in the recent growth of consumption, medicine, electricity, and construction, and the rhythm is not consistent with the market.

I took the electric power sector as an example. When the index continued to rise continuously, the power sector maintained a horizontal vibration. Recently, the index was sideways, and this section began to force. The sector of this kind of public business attributes has obvious defense, which can find opportunities on the lower edge of the horizontal vibration.

However, at present, big consumption does not show the overall sustainability, nor does it mean that it is higher than the mainstream track. I am more to look at the increase of the key support position. The pharmaceutical sector has the lowest valuation level. Although there are policy support, it has not continued. It is currently a interval vibration pattern.

The medical device is slightly higher than the pharmacy. Judging from the current situation of this year, the impact of medicine collection on them is controllable and there is room for valuation repair. In addition, from the recent announcement of the performance of endoscopes and ultrasound stocks such as performance trailers, it can also prove that there is a valuation repair phenomenon. Another type of opportunity is a relatively backward stock in the strong sector. For such stocks, it is difficult to operate, and the requirements for investors' transaction capabilities are relatively high. You can refer to the short -term operation ideas mentioned before the Dogo Investment Notes. If you don't want to participate, you don't have to go to the game.

In addition, there is a phenomenon that needs to be careful. The market has once again been broken in the market after two months. New shares are not only the texture of the new stock itself, but also the problem of overall emotions and liquidity of the market.

When the market transaction amount is not very close, pay more attention to some new themes, and it is likely that short -fry funds will travel through. For example, the concept of the Yuan universe last year, at that time, the broader market index performed very ordinary, but the Yuan universe was extremely strong.

July 15th is the last time node of the dense disclosure of the interim performance preview, which means that the disclosure of the performance forecast will be dense next week, and everyone needs to attach importance to the performance of the interim report. Finding the expectations between performance and stock price is also a good opportunity to find a certainty in uncertainty.

Dr. Niu: This weekend, there are many news. For example, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the CPI data, the 16 departments issued and implemented the implementation of the "National Standardization Development Outline" action plan, and the international investment bank unanimously sang multiple A shares. How to interpret these messages?

Daida: The latest data of CPI and PPI weekends were released. Among them, PPI rose 6.1%year -on -year, and CPI rose 2.5%year -on -year. Since October last year, in terms of year -on -year, PPI has fallen nine consecutive. PPI is an index that measures the change trend and degree of changes in industrial enterprise products. PPI investigates a total of 9 categories of products, including fuel, non -ferrous metals, chemicals, pulp, building materials, agricultural and sideline products, textile raw materials, and industrial control products.

In the period when PPI rises rapidly, profits will concentrate on the upstream industries such as mining and colors. In the downward period of PPI, the industry where the price of raw materials is sensitive to the price of raw materials is how miserable it was before, and now how good it is. Especially in some industries, due to the rapid decline in the cost of upstream raw materials, the product outlet price is sticky due to inventory and downstream demand, which has formed dual benefits and promoted the rapid improvement of profitability.

The General Administration of Market Supervision and other 16 departments issued and implemented the implementation of the "National Standardization Development Outline" action plan, and implemented a special operation of new infrastructure standardization. The development of the new power system has been started in construction, and at the same time, it also emphasizes the improvement of wind power, photovoltaic, power transmission, energy storage, hydrogen energy, advanced nuclear power, and fossil energy clean and efficient use standards.

With the advancement of the new power system, the development of clean energy has a direct promotion force. In the future, the power system, clean energy will occupy the dominant position, which is the future trend. So we have to see the development potential of the two major air outlets of smart power and clean energy in the future. The favorable directions include green power, smart grids, clean energy, energy storage, UHV, photovoltaic, etc.

Under the background of the international investment banks is optimistic about the Chinese market, under the various turmoil and economic recession of the surrounding situation, China seems to have become a haven of financial assets. With the release of relevant Chinese economy, I believe that more investment banks will see the potential of China's financial markets.

Of course, after nearly two months of rise, foreign investment banks have unanimously looked at multiple A shares at this time, and we still need to leave a heart. The medium and long -term confidence in A shares, but the short -term market situation is unclear, and the opportunity to wait patiently to wait for certainty is the long -term plan to survive in the stock market.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of relevant national departments, this note does not involve any operating suggestions, and the risk of entering the market should be borne.

Daily Economic News

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