"Xue Si Pingzhi" Li Yang: The real estate market welcomes a trend turn, which requires comprehensive and long -term institutional arrangements.

Li Yang: The real estate market is welcoming trend turns, which requires comprehensive and long -term institutional arrangements

Xue Si Pingzhi

★★★★★

(This article is based on the "NIFD Quarterly Report" held by the author at the "NIFD Quarterly Report" in the third quarter report conference of the 20121 Reporting Conference in the National Finance and Development Laboratory)

Focusing on the market focus of China's real estate financial trend, debt and leverage, Li Yang explained a number of economic and financial issues that are worthy of focusing on the recent attention.

Be prepared for the long -term downward decline in the real estate market

This year, the real estate market has cool down significantly.

Li Yang believes that this may indicate the formation of a certain trend. At present, there are several signs of particular attention:

First, the speed of sales and funds for housing enterprises continues to grow negatively.

In October, the sales area and sales of commercial housing decreased by 21.7%and 22.6%year -on -year, a decrease of 8.5 and 6.8 percentage points from September.

In October, the source of real estate development funds decreased by 9.5%year -on -year, which was only 1.7 percentage points from September.

Second, house prices in most cities have fallen.

According to the latest 70 large and medium -sized cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2021, second -hand housing prices in 64 cities fell from the previous month, only 4 cities rose and 2 cities were flat.

Since 2014, the number of cities with a decline in house prices has exceeded 90%for the first time, and the first, second, fourth -tier cities have turned their collectives.

This situation can also be clearly seen from the conversion of real estate market supervision policies in various places.

All localities have automatically changed the management and control policies for the real estate market from simply restricting housing prices to the upper and lower limits, and most cities have the lower limit on the actual role.

Third, there are "flow shots" in multiple cities and sold at the bottom price.

What follows is that the popularity of new real estate transactions in various places has gradually retreated, and the financial status of real estate companies has worsen.

Li Yang said that there are many factors that cause the trend of the real estate market, including long -term economic downside, deterioration of population situation, slow urbanization process, and real estate tax levy.

Therefore, we must plan ahead.

Li Yang emphasized that China's real estate market regulation requires new ideas:

On the one hand, on the basis of strictly implementing the principle of "housing and not stir -fry", the housing system, fiscal system, taxation system and financial system must be reformed, and supporting coordination is particularly important.

On the other hand, there is a comprehensive and long -term strategic arrangement to maintain the market stability. There must be no "one diarrhea" situation, which provides a gradual and gradual system guarantee for solving deep -level problems.

Be wary of residents' debt risk

Li Yang proposed that it is closely related to the trend of the real estate market. The change in China's debt and the corresponding leverage rate is also an issue that needs to pay attention to.

From the perspective of the general trend, China's non -financial sector leverage rate has gradually increased since 2011. In order to cope with the new crown pneumonia's epidemic, 2020 has increased sharply in 2020. However, in the first three quarters of 2021, China's overall leverage has dropped slightly. "After nearly ten years of 'debt reduction' and 'deleveraging', people have realized that leverage is a neutral concept, and the economic situation is one -sided based on changes in leverage rate changes, and they may go astray." Li Yang Said, "Excessive leverage ratio is not good, and the leverage rate is not ideal. It shows that the enthusiasm of the real economy department's production, investment and consumption is reduced. This is what we are the most unwilling to see."

Li Yang mentioned that the current leverage of residents in my country is mainly due to the growth of real estate borrowing, but the growth of residential consumption and short -term operating loans is still sluggish.

This shows that the rise in residents' leverage has not played a significant role in driving consumer demand.

On the contrary, most of the residential debt is related to the real estate market, which undoubtedly strengthened the overflow of the risk of residential debt and the risk of the real estate market, which makes the problem more complicated.

In particular, in 2020, the leverage ratio of Chinese residents surpassed Japan and Germany for the first time. At the same time, the upward trend of residents' debt and leverage for nearly ten years is very similar to the trend of the US subprime mortgage crisis in the first ten years, which requires us to increase their vigilance.

The epidemic is still the leading factor affecting the pace of economic recovery

Regarding the currency and fiscal policy implemented in my country this year, Li Yang talked: "In 2021, monetary policy and fiscal policy were controlled in terms of expansion. Although this has a certain negative impact on economic growth in the first three quarters of 2021 , But it also shows that the toughness of my country's macro -control policy is very strong, and there is huge elasticity and space. In the long run, this is the system and mechanism that ensures the healthy operation of our country. "

Looking forward to the future, Li Yang said that "epidemic economics" still dominates the pattern of economic recovery. In other words, the situation of epidemic control determines the pace of economic recovery and growth.

Globally, the most difficult stage may have passed. However, if you go deep into the country, the situation is far from being so optimistic.

The main manifestation is that there is a serious country difference in vaccination, that is, the so -called "immune gap" appears. The emergence of "immune gap" will further cause "development gaps" between developing countries and developed countries, exacerbating unbalanced global development.

"For China, we also need to solve the problem of working together with other countries in the world in resistance."

Li Yang emphasized that China's anti -epidemic method is different from most countries in the world. Objectively, this may postpone the process of "re -connection" in China and the entire world.

It is in this sense that the "dual -loop" strategy is far -sighted.

Therefore, seriously implementing this strategy is essential for China's future development.

Pay close attention to global debt risks and new situations that appear

Li Yang mentioned that the proliferation of debt of global debt, especially developed economies, is an increasingly serious issue in this century.

In the case of economic downturn, most liquidity released by the currency authorities of developed economies will not enter the real economy field, but stay in the field of finance and other circulation.

As a result, the asset market feels the pressure of long -term prices. "In the stock market, the stock price continues to rise; in the bond market, the yield of bonds continues to decline, resulting in super low interest rates and negative interest rates, as well as long -term and short -term bonds. , House prices will rise against the trend during the economic downturn. "Li Yang said.

Li Yang said that while paying high concern to the proliferation of debt, a new situation in 2021 must be taken seriously, that is, developed economies led by the United States began to end its fiscal and currency easing policies. It is reflected in the field of monetary policy, which is "shrinking".

Many years of experience tells us that the monetary policy of developed economies, especially the United States, has had a huge impact on other countries.

During the "expansion of the table" in the United States, due to the release of large -scale US dollar funds and flowing to the international market, developing countries and emerging market economies generally get more funds, and their funds will decline. As a result, the negative impact of domestic economic development is smaller.

On the contrary, the Fed's "shrinkage" will cause global funding to tighten and return to the United States on a large scale, which also leads to rising interest rates. Developing countries and emerging market economies generally feel negative impact.

According to the current arrangement, starting from the fourth quarter of 2021, the Fed will start to "shrink the table", and its "width" will end in the first half of next year.

The "shrinkage" policy under this high debt condition will have an unexpected impact on the majority of developing countries and emerging market economies, and we must be prepared to cope.

Li Yang: Lecturer of Chang'an Street Reading Club, Member of the School of Social Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

mpcps class="js_editor_new_cps" data-traceid="ffc61380-fe76-40f2-8c20-a838fd842e7a" data-goodssouce="1" data-pid="107_25172590" data-appuin="0" data-buffer=""category_id" : 10, "pid": "107__172590", "biz_uin": 0, "trace_id": "FFC61380-FE76-40F2-8C20-A838FD842e7a", "SKU_ID": "107_25172590", "Source_id": 7, "source_name" "" : "Dangdang", "Audit_State": 1, "main_img": "https://img.zhls.qq.com/3/8cdc1458Cad5498e9ff5fd3e4b7efdc3.jpg" ":" PRODUCT_NAME ": 1949.10-2016.1 2) Group purchase call: 400-106-6666 rpm 6 "," Current_price ": 26320," first_category_id ":" 10 "," appuin ": 0," isnewcpskol ": 1" />

For more exciting, please click

New Book Recommend Chang'an Street Reading Club No. 20220703 Cadres to Learn the New Book List

Chang'an Street Good Book Changan Street Reading Club Annual Recommended Cadre Learning Book List (Classic, Popular Articles)

- END -