Call away the world economic fog, Hengchang helps investors to grasp the future

"The downward pressure is under great pressure, and there are many autumn, I am a major event, beware of the rhythm."

和 When "black swan" and "gray rhinos" appear too frequently, and even become new normal, how should investors allocate assets in the opponent?

In the first half of 2022, the epidemic, the emergence of monkey acne, and the geopolitical crisis suddenly broke out. The global economy was facing more and more powerful challenges. Almost the world lowered the relevant expectations of economic development in the second half of the year. Economic pressure further accelerates the trend of anti -globalization and the reorganization of international camps, making the global economic trend more difficult to predict.

Can the economy recover in the second half of the year? Against globalization affects China's import and export trade, can it be resolved on China's macroeconomic economy? Which period of Merrill Lynch is now, is it still effective for investment guidance? How to realize the value preservation and value -added of assets in an unstable environment?

Faced with the confusing trend of the macroeconomic economy, under the guidance of the Hangchang Macro Economic Research Office, under the guidance of Dr. Zong Liang, a macroeconomist and the chief researcher of Bank of China, it released the "Guidelines for Macroeconomic Observation and Asset Allocation Strategy in the second half of the 2022" on August 9th. (Here referred to as: "Guidelines"), and in the "Hengxin · Seven -Day Talk" column of the night, it made a corresponding interpretation to help investors better seize the opportunities for the future through a complex and complicated international and domestic environment.

The "Guidelines" believes that the recovery of China's economic toughness in the second half of the year can be expected, and it may get out of a development curve that is different from other major economies. It is hoped that investors will help investors realize "the future of steady growth letter" on the basis of understanding the economy and macro general trend.

Global: The beginning of bad, pessimistic expectations

Similar to the past two years, it has not brought more surprises and hope to people in 20022: Global problems such as the Ukraine crisis, repeated epidemic, and high inflation of overseas economies have continued to occur, allowing people The economic trend has to make pessimistic expectations.

At the end of February, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out. On the surface, it is only a war between the two countries. In fact, it has been integrated around the world today. This war has a great impact on energy, food and other related industries.

The first is the energy market. Russia has the world's largest natural gas reserves, accounting for about 1/5 of global proven reserves, and about 40%of the EU's natural gas market share. After the conflict broke out, Russia has reduced or completely stopped the supply of natural gas to Europe. At the same time, OPEC+conference member states (including OPEC member states and 10 small and medium oil countries led by Russia) refused In the summer of the summer, the price of crude oil was shocked at a high time in the first half of the year.

The Hengchang Macro Economic Research Office believes that considering that this round of energy crisis involves oil, natural gas, power and other fields, the scope and field of influence is greater than the oil crisis in the 1970s and 1990s. Industrial output has declined and economic atrophy, which may not be exceptions this time.

Energy issues are now very obvious in Europe. In the first half of 2022, the restoration process of the euro zone economy was interrupted from the shadow of the epidemic. The high energy prices affected the cost of production, resulting in the rise in prices, and the inflation reached the highest level of history (the inflation rate in the euro zone reached 8.6%in June).

In addition, Ukraine is a great country exporter, and the conflict with Russia once caused the grain to be unable to transport them for about half a year. It was not until July after signing an agreement, and the first grain ship on August 1 was from Odeza. What matters worse is that due to the drought of the world's first exported country, India, India, has fallen to the lowest in the past three years due to drought in some areas, which has further increased grain prices.

To make matters worse, it has affected the epidemic in the world for nearly three years and is still raging. The new crown virus has frequently varied, the spread is enhanced, and the epidemic of the monkey acne broke out at the end of May. So far, nearly 80 countries have reported more than 22,000 cases. On July 23, the World Health Organization issued the highest -level alert, listed the epidemic of monkey acne as "international concerns of emergencies." The epidemic hindered the global logistics, which is also one of the main factors to push the price.

In addition, currencies issued by major economies to stimulate economic growth have also caused inflation to rise. Since 2022, in order to recover the superb currency, including the Federal Reserve, including the Federal Reserve, has opened the interest rate hike cycle. After the release of the strong non -agricultural employment report data, Citi even raised the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike expectation to 100 basis points in September, and quickly quickly to 100 basis points, and quickly, and quickly, it was fast to 100 basis points. Increased interest rates have increased the cost of investment and production of enterprises and reduced their willingness to invest in enterprise investment.

On the one hand, it is the price that continues to rise, and on the other hand, the willingness of supply -side investment production has declined, and many countries in the world have entered a stage of high inflation and low growth.

In terms of data, stagflation expectations will not disappear in the short term. The US CPI reached 9.1%in June, the largest year -on -year increase since December 1981; World Bank data shows that in April 2022, the global inflation rate was as high as 7.8%, the highest since 2008. Looking at the whole year of 2022, the IMF is expected to be 3.2%of the global economic growth, the World Bank is expected to be 2.9%, and the United Nations is expected to be 3.1%, which is significantly lower than the inflation rate expectations (the United Nations is expected to be 6.7%and IMF is expected to be about 6.6%).

In this regard, the "Guidelines" said, "The global capital market presents a trend of volatility. In the first half of 2022, since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the global inflation level has soared significantly. The bond market has fluctuated significantly, presenting a new periodic general characteristics. It is expected that the global consumption growth rate will fall further in the second half of the year. The tightening monetary policy adopted by various countries will restrict the consumption of durable products by residents, and the actual disposable income of residents will decrease. , Increased liability consumption costs, the negative effects of inflation on consumption will be more prominent. "China: It is expected to continue to go out of the market independent of overseas

As a member of the Earth Village, the Chinese economy is inevitably affected by the world's macroeconomic development. In the first half of 2022, affected by the epidemic situation of foreign and domestic cities, Chinese residents' investment and consumption willingness, business status and investment expectations were relatively low, and economic growth was still significantly lower than the rational growth rate.

However, it should also be seen that thanks to solidly coordinating the prevention and control of the epidemic, adhering to the steady progress, China's economy is generally good, showing the characteristics of the world's major economies.

For example, since May, the growth rate of industrial production has increased, the decline in automobile consumption has narrowed significantly, infrastructure investment has accelerated, and the growth rate of exports has rebounded significantly. Under the influence of factors such as the effect of preserving the stability policy, PPIs used to measure the status of economic recovery have fallen from 8.2%in January to 3.6%in January to a certain extent. The pressure was alleviated as a whole, and the economic growth kinetic energy rebounded.

There are also some performances that have an impact on future economic trends. For example, China's industrial transformation accelerated in the first half of the year, high -tech manufacturing investment has maintained high growth, and technology transformation has become an important growth momentum of manufacturing investment. The leading position of the manufacturing industry; in the face of the monetary policy of the epidemic and economic downturn, the overall level of inflation level is moderate, forming a sharp contrast with other major global economies, and providing a relatively better environment for the economic recovery in the second half of the year.

Why can we maintain a relatively good economic situation in a downward environment? When Zong Liang's analysis was released, it was very important.

"That is to say, like we are running, if there is a person who runs in front of the rhythm, let's not say the champion behind, it is difficult to even go to the front. In the past few days, there is a very special situation. That is, the United States has raised interest rates for so long, Europe began to raise interest rates, and now Britain also starts to raise interest rates. This is equivalent Sentences: 'The downward pressure is high, and there are many autumn of events.

In the second half of the year, the external environment faced by China's economy is still complicated, and uncertain factors will continue to bring downward pressure. On July 28, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China pointed out that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to efficiently coordinate the prevention and control of the epidemic and economic and social development. The macro policies must actively act as an enlarged demand and keep the bottom line in all aspects.

The "Guidelines" believes that with the implementation of a package of domestic demand and stabilizing production policies such as finance, currency, and industrial chain supply chain, the Chinese economy is expected to give full play to the advantages of toughness, great potential, and wide space in the second half of the year. Back.

Specifically, in the second half of the year, domestic demand will play the cornerstone role of a stable macroeconomic market. China's high growth momentum has been summarized as "three driving carriages", namely investment, consumption, import and export. The overall investment has slowed down. In the second half of the year, under the influence of factors such as the tightening of the central bank's monetary policy and the recovery of other economies, China's export market share will continue to be under pressure. On the other hand, the impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year is expected to weaken the economy. After the epidemic of the North, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, repair increased growth, and demand is expected to increase.

In 2020, the "dual -cycle strategy", which is proposed in 2020 with the domestic large -cycle as the main body and the domestic and international dual -cycle, has been fully proven its correctness after two years of practice. In the case of maintaining a loose trend and the continuous stability of the industrial recovery foundation, China is expected to give full play to the advantages of the country's chain. Driven by the large -scale domestic cycle, continue to follow its own rhythm and go out of the economic market independent of overseas.

Investment: There are obvious differentiation at home and abroad

Due to the inconsistent economic operation cycle and monetary policy cycle at home and abroad in the second half of 2022, Hengchang Macro Economic Research Office analyzed that the driving force of large domestic and foreign assets also had significant differentiation.

The "Guidelines" summarizes: "Overseas asset fluctuations will gradually shift from 'stagnation' to decline and the tightening rhythm of the monetary policy of major economies around the global economy. Whether the feedback cycle of the balance sheet will be launched. The expected return of domestic stock bond assets may better be better than the overseas market.

The analysis of the Hengchang Macro Economic Research Office is basically the same as the classic investment theory of the classic investment -Meilin's "investment clock". According to the Meilin clock, the overseas economy is in the stagnation period, and the cash is king. The yield of holding cash is better than investing in stocks and bonds. The domestic economy is in a recovery period, and the yields of holding stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash are reduced in turn.

However, the Merrill Lynch includes only the general trend. For investors, it is necessary to seize more details, such as which tracks are more worthy of investing. Hengchang Macro Economic Research Office judged that in the second half of 2022, A shares probably fluctuated up. On this basis, the tracks that can focus on new energy, big health, hard technology and new consumption. In fact, the Hengchang Macro Economic Research Office has been optimistic about these four tracks for a long time. Lu Yan's business comments have made specific analysis in the previous article "Hengchang: The Key Revisions of the Toughness in the post -epidemic era".

In the second half of 2022, global liquidity may be approaching, the risk of economic recession may continue to rise, the trend of anti -globalization may continue to increase, and international camps may be re -divided. Extreme situations like the Sri Lankan government bankruptcy may still occur. However, the development of human civilization and socioeconomic and social and economy has never been smooth sailing. After countless errors, repeated mistakes, the primitive society of swords and fire, and the exchange of objects, it has evolved into modern society.

Therefore, there may be a reason to believe that after this century -old change, the economy and society will usher in a new pattern and new development. China is the first to enter the economic recovery period and will obtain favorable positions in the new economic pattern.

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