21 depth ｜ Germany under the "trauma" of energy: economic concerns are difficult to hide, and the chemical industry has been severely damaged

The 21st Century Business Herald reporter He Liuying reported on August 25, local time, the German Federal Statistics Bureau announced the final data of the second quarter of GDP. After the price, seasonal and calendar adjustments, Germany's GDP increased by 0.1%in the second quarter of the second quarter, better than the zero growth announced before; year -on -year, GDP increased by 1.8%in the second quarter after price adjustment, and also exceeded 1.5%than the initial value.

The GDP value is higher than expected, and market confidence has boosted. On the 25th, the German DAX30 index increased by 0.39%, which fixed the 2.32%of the 22nd fell on the 22nd. On the 22nd, the euro fell below the price of the US dollar again and fell to 0.9926. As of press time, the euro rose above the US dollar to parity, and is now reported to 1.0073.

Ding Chun, Director of the European Issues Research Center of Fudan University and Professor of the Institute of Economics of the School of Economics, told 21 reporters, "From the latest data, Germany's current economic performance is better than expected. The influence has not been fully reflected in the second quarter data. "

The German Institute of Economics (IFO) currently expects that due to weak consumption, the country's GDP will shrink slightly in the third quarter. Ding Chun believes that the possibility of economic downturn in Germany does exist in the next quarter. "First of all, the reaction of some economic indicators will be relatively lagging, and the current economic fluctuations will also affect it. Second, from the perspective of investment and consumption, the current situation of Germany is not ideal, especially the investment prospects are dim, the economic growth momentum is insufficient. ; In addition, winter is coming, it will bring greater energy tests to Germany. "

Economic concerns still exist

According to data released on August 25, Germany's GDP in the second quarter increased by 1.8%year -on -year and 0.1%month -on -month, which was better than the initial value. Especially the data was "washed off" from the previous monthly data that was previously announced. As a result, the economic performance of this "European Economic Train" finally had a bright color.

Ding Chun believes that "under the influence of Russia and Ukraine's conflict and energy crisis, Germany's economic performance in the second quarter is significantly better than our expectations."

But the hidden concerns still exist. Wei Hongxu, a researcher at the Anbang Think Tank Macro Economic Research Center, pointed out to the 21st Century Business Herald, "Due to seasonal factors, we must not only look at the ratio, but also the year -on -year year -on -year growth rate (from the first quarter) The severe economic situation. "

Wei Hongxu believes that data adjustments in Germany in the second quarter are not a trend. At the same time, he also reminded that some of the first indicators have reflected the trend of economic downturn. In August, the German Comprehensive Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) fell to the low point in more than two years, from 48.1 last month to 47.6. The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.8 in August. PMI dropped to 48.2, and it was recorded for 18 months, all of which fell below 50.

In addition, according to the latest index announced by the IFO Research Institute, after the seasonal adjustment, the German business prosperity index fell from 88.7 points last month to 88.5 points. Among them, trade indicators have declined compared with the previous month, the manufacturing industry was flat month -on -month, and the service industry and construction industry increased from the previous month. Although its performance is better than market expectations, the decline in a month -on -month decline still shows insufficient confidence in German companies.

It is worth pointing out that in the euro region member states, Germany's economic trauma this year is particularly obvious. Judging from the year -on -year growth rate of GDP in the second quarter, 1.8%of Germany seemed to be particularly dull compared to France's 4.2%and 4.6%in Italy.

"Under normal circumstances, the labor productivity and economic growth rate of Nordic countries such as Germany and the Netherlands will be higher than that of France, Italy and other southern European countries. , The overall environment of the world's economy is not good, so it has a large impact, and the economic downturn is more obvious. The predictive prediction will have a deeper decline in the early stage. In this regard, the country's economic performance in the second quarter The risk of economic downward is still large. "Ding Chun pointed out.

At present, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) is expected to be 1.2%this year in Germany, and it performs the weakest among the Seven Kingdoms Group. The Federal Bank's forecast also appears to be negative. The latest monthly report states that Germany's inflation will continue to rise, and the possibility of economic recession will become increasing.

The chemical industry is hit hard

In this intensified energy crisis, German chemical industry and other energy -intensive industries have been severely damaged.

It is reported that in Germany's natural gas consumption, the chemical industry accounts for about 15%. Since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine (February), the "European Natural Gas Vane" TTF TTF in recent months has risen from 80 euros/MWh to 332 euros/MWh, an increase of over 300%. Affected by this, the cost of German chemical enterprises rose sharply, and at the same time, it pushed up in Germany's July PPI (producer price index) growth rate of 37.2%year -on -year, and once again refreshed the historical record.

Li Chao, the assistant director of the European Institute of Modern International Relations, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, "As a major industrial country, manufacturing has always been a dominant industry in Germany and the main economic pillar. Among them, the chemical industry occupies an important role. This industry is closely related, not only its important chemical raw materials, but also the fuel that is often used in the production process. Therefore, in the case of soaring energy prices, the German chemical industry has been impacted. "

Under this background, Germany's recent proportion of chemical imports has increased significantly. According to data from the German Federal Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2022, German goods imports increased by 26.5%year -on -year. From the perspective of imported goods, chemical products increased the most obviously, a significant increase of 64.9%over the same period last year to 76.1 billion euros. To a certain extent, the trade deficit in Germany was affected by this in May. To make matters worse, in order to help natural gas suppliers over the price crisis, Germany also announced earlier this month that it began to levy 2.419 Euros/kilowatt -time natural gas surcharges from October. Essence It is reported that this policy will last until April 2024.

The German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) managing director Wolfgang Große Entrup said, "From an economic point of view, taxation is the best (choice). For the type of industry, this is an extremely bitter pill. "

VCI estimates that the opening of natural gas surcharges will cause the country's chemical and pharmaceutical industry to lose more than 3 billion euros per year. German chemical giant Koschuang also said that the new surcharge will bring it an additional burden of at least 3 million euros per year. Recently, considering that chemical enterprises may be difficult to afford, the German government stated that it will temporarily reduce natural gas VAT from 19%to 7%.

But the greater source of pressure is the energy end. Gazprom recently announced that the only turbine left by "Beixi-1" will be suspended for three days from August 31. During this period, the pipeline will suspend natural gas to send Germany. As soon as the news came out, European "gas shortage" was even more anxious, and the price of natural gas was affected sharply. As of press time, the futures price of TTF in the Netherlands was still above 300 euros/MWh. In the case of natural gas prices, energy -intensive enterprises such as German chemical industry will continue to be under pressure.

It is worth mentioning that under the current situation and industrial pressure, the discussion of "whether Germany will go to industrialization" has appeared in the market. Li Chao believes that "Over the years, the German manufacturing industry accounts for about 20%of GDP, which is higher than that of other economies such as the United Kingdom. In 2019, Germany also introduced" National Industrial Strategy 2030 ", which proposed that it would be 2030 Increase the proportion of industrial output value to 25%. I think that even if the German industry is currently under pressure, it will continue to exert its industrial advantages and adhere to the principles of its industrial country in terms of attention or future development. "

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