International oil prices have fallen by 10%, falling below the $ 100 mark. What is this?

The price of domestic refined oil products is expected to usher in two consecutive declines, and the price of this round of oil will be relatively large. The No. 92 gasoline will fall below 9 yuan and return to nearly 8.5 yuan/liter.

The main reason is that the international oil price declined directly as if it was thinned yesterday. The price of Brent crude oil fell from the opening of $ 113.5/barrel to the lowest $ 101.16/barrel, with a maximum decline of 10.87%. The price of WTI crude oil fell from the opening of $ 110.41/barrel to the lowest $ 97.81/barrel, with a maximum decline of 11.41%.

The sudden decline in crude oil will make people mistakenly think that the two countries that are internationally conflict have completed reconciliation. In fact, it is not. If we only focus on crude oil itself, I am afraid that we cannot fully know the main reason for the decline in crude oil. We should analyze the main reasons for its decline from a more comprehensive perspective.

Just yesterday, in addition to the sharp decline in international oil prices, the prices of gold, copper, natural gas, wheat, corn, cotton and other commodities have fallen to varying degrees.

New York Fund fell from $ 1814.4/ounce yesterday to $ 1763.8/ounce, a decline of 2.09%. In the past four months, the price of gold has fallen below the $ 1800/ounce mark from the highest $ 2078.8/ounce, a decline of 15.15%.

London copper performance was even more weak. It fell from $ 7,997/ton yesterday to $ 7,625/ton, a decline of 4.33%. In the past four months, the highest $ 10845/ton of London has fallen to the lowest $ 7597/ton yesterday, a decrease of 29.94%.

The American natural gas has fallen nearly 1/3 in the past month, and cotton futures have plummeted by more than 40%in the past two months.

In addition to the decline in the price of commodities, the foreign exchange market is also a bloody storm. After the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply, the euro follows closely. The yen depreciated more than 30%in the past 18 months, and the euro hit a new low in 20 years, depreciating more than 20%in the last 18 months!

Why do international commodities and foreign exchange markets suddenly appear such huge fluctuations?

The main reason is the signs of economic recession in the United States. According to Bloomberg's economic forecast, recently, consumer confidence in the United States has reached a record low, and at the same time, the interest rate level of the United States is still soaring. In fact, the higher the interest rate level, the weaker consumers' confidence in consumption, which will form a vicious circle and eventually cause economic recession. In the next 12 months, the probability of US economic recession has increased to 38%.

It should be noted that the surge in interest rate levels will greatly increase the cost of capital utilization of enterprises. However, consumer confidence is lacking, and enterprises cannot offset this part of the loss by raising prices, which will also cause corporate profits to decline. After companies make money, economic recession is inevitable.

What is the nominal economic recession?

It refers to the two consecutive quarters of GDP or longer GDP growth rate in a certain area in a negative state. Taking the United States as an example, the GDP in the first quarter of the United States in 2022 was US $ 5981 billion, a decrease of 1.6%at the annual rate. Reuters said that among economists interviewed, they believe that the United States will decrease by about 1.5%year -on -year in the second quarter. If experts predict that it is completely correct, the US economy will fall into a technological economic recession.

Regarding the slowdown of the US economic development, the Fed Chairman Powell said that the biggest risk currently encountered in the United States is that it continues to inflation, and tightening monetary policy may cause economic recession, but it does not guarantee that it will definitely happen.

What impact will the US economic recession bring us?

There must be a good side and a bad side. The good side is that China, as a world factory, can produce a variety of daily necessities needed in the world in the minimum cost and efficient way. It may have a drive effect on companies engaged in international trade, but the premise is that it is profitable. People are also unwilling to consume, and they can only occupy the market with high cost -effective products.

For ordinary people, the most direct benefit may be that oil prices have fallen. People can continue to use relatively low -cost gasoline, and the cost of car use will be relatively reduced.

What is a bad side? The difficulty of making money by domestic companies is also increasing. For the simplest example, the decline in the US economic decline will make the profit of corporate decline, which may occur. The more the number of layoffs may be, the weaker the consumption power of the United States. Some domestic and high -end products in China are easy to sell up, which will also affect our economy to a certain extent.

In addition, chip prices may continue to rise, and eventually the cost of some domestic products will continue to rise. However, domestic consumers are busy repaying mortgages. There are not too many funds to support domestic products. All industries.

In short, in the next few years, no matter what industry, you must be prepared for "surviving". The strategy of great expansion does not seem to be suitable!

This is the best era and the worst era. With capital thinking and innovation models, the world is your stage!

In the new business world, there are no eliminated industries. Only the eliminated products and outdated business models will focus on product innovation and model innovation in the future.

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