In the first half of the year, new credit scale is expected to create a new high industry in the same period.

In the first five months of this year, a total of 1.08754 trillion yuan was added. A number of experts interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily predict that the number of new RMB loans in June will be more than 2.4 trillion yuan, which shows that the first half of this year's RMB loan is expected to hit a record high in the same period.

"Securities Daily" reporter sorted out financial data announced by the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "central bank") since the first half of 2001, and found that in the first half of 2021, the number of new RMB loans was the highest in the same period to 1.276 trillion yuan.

Although the scale of new RMB loans in the first half of this year remains to be "supplemented" after the announcement of the financial data in June, according to the above data, the new RMB loan in June will only exceed 188.46 trillion yuan, which will exceed the first half of 2021 in the first half of 2021. Significant level.

For the new RMB loan scale in June, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, predicts that the new loan scale in June is expected to reach 2.4 trillion yuan in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter, an increase of 280 billion more than the same period last year. Yuan. There are two main support factors: First, it is represented by increasing the credit quota of 800 billion yuan in policy banks, and the support of policies will increase significantly in the face of infrastructure investment; with the economic transfer of the economy, manufacturing investment will remain compared to compare Fast growth will drive the recovery of enterprises for medium and long -term loans to increase year -on -year. Second, the property market has recovered in June. It is expected that residents who are mainly mortgages will narrow the year -on -year decline in medium- and long -term loans.

Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that since May, economic operation has begun to accelerate recovery, and corporate financing will gradually increase. In addition, the stability of economic policies has continued to make efforts, and the effects are also emerging. In addition, June itself is also a large month of credit demand, so it is expected that new RMB loans will reach about 2.5 trillion yuan in June.

China Merchants Securities predicts a new loan of 2.5 trillion yuan in June; the Zhang Yu team of Huading Securities predicts that the new loan in June is about 2.4 trillion yuan, corresponding to 2.6 trillion yuan in social merging RMB loans.

Regarding analysts and institutions given the calculation of new RMB loans in the first five months of prediction data for the prediction data in June, the new RMB in the first half of this year is expected to reach 13.3 trillion yuan, and the innovation history is new. "This means that in the context of the recent regulatory layer repeatedly required 'enhanced the stability of total credit growth', the total function of monetary policy reverse periodic adjustment is fully exerting." Wang Qing said.

Looking forward to the credit investment in the second half of the year, Liang Si predicts that the scale of credit will remain at a high level, while promoting the economic recovery while rectifying the rescue of the enterprise. In addition, support for key areas and weak links will remain at a high level. For example, credit growth in the fields of inclusive small, green, and technological innovation is still expected to maintain high growth.

Wang Qing predicts that credit release in the second half of the year will show the characteristics of "slower and backward, maintaining a high level in the overall". Next, the global economic downturn will drag out external demand, and domestic consumption restoration may be slow; in the second half of the year, the macroeconomic growth rate will rebound more mild. Policies will continue to provide supportable monetary and financial environments. Credit delivery is expected to maintain high intensity. In addition, the structural characteristics of credit distribution in the second half of the year will be more obvious. The field of infrastructure will become the focus of launch, and the decline in real estate credit increase will gradually alleviate. Credit growth in key areas such as small and micro enterprises and scientific and technological innovation will continue to maintain a high level of more than 20%.

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