John Durl: The electricization of transportation is the ultimate application of OKR

Climate change is a global problem facing human beings. With the increase in carbon dioxide emissions from various countries, greenhouse gas has soared, which pose a threat to the life system. A large number of studies have shown that if the temperature of the earth rises by 4 ° C, the global economy will be destroyed, especially the economy of the southern hemisphere. The scale of this disaster will far exceed the 2008 financial crisis and will continue for a long time. Humans will enter a permanent climate depression. Among them, the transportation industry is a large carbon emission household. In China alone, carbon emissions in the transportation field account for 15%of the national terminal carbon emissions, and in the past 9 years, it has increased at a rate of 5%per year. Therefore, to solve climate problems, we must first solve the carbon emission problem in the transportation industry.

So, what is a targeted, operable, and measured plan, so that we can truly avoid this imminent disaster?

OKR (target and key result method) John Dul's transliterate in the new book "Speed ​​and scale", applied OKR to solve the problem of carbon emissions, focused on the total target of net zero emissions in 2050, and proposed that transportation electrification of transportation for transportation. The importance of reducing emission reduction and the basic action steps to realize the electrification of transportation:

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Transportation electrification OKR

Objectives: Delivery electrification

By 2050, the current 8 billion tons of emissions will be reduced to 2 billion tons.

KR 1.1 price

By 2024, electric vehicles will reach the same cost performance ($ 35,000) in the United States in the United States; by 2030, electric vehicles will reach the same cost performance ($ 11,000) in India and China in India and China.

The key result of the price (KR 1.1) strives to break a long -term obstacle facing when promoting electric vehicles, that is, the cost performance of electric vehicles is flat with fuel vehicles. If you want electric vehicles to become the main body of the passenger car market, they must be reasonable. When people spend more money to buy some "green" products instead of choosing more carbon products, they pay the so -called "green premium". I am the first from Bill Gates I heard this word. The market has proven that if there is a choice, most people are unwilling to pay or be unable to afford the energy premium. "People will choose low -cost solutions," said Eric Toone, the technical head of the Energy Fund, "even if the cleaning fuel per gallon is only refined from the dirty asphalt sand in the world, Many people spend a penny, and many people will not pay for it. "Moreover, even those who are willing to spend a penny will expect it to have better performance.

Relying on early early adopters and enthusiastic citizens do not allow us to achieve the goal of net zero emissions. In order to ensure that the market turns to electric vehicles, electric vehicles need to have better performance at the same price. Considering this situation, the green premium is just a rough measure for us to solve the difficulties facing each problem, revealing the goal of we need to go in the fields of electric vehicles, food or cement to achieve net zero emissions.

KR 1.2 car

By 2030, one of the two new vehicles purchased by individuals around the world will be an electric vehicle; by 2040, the proportion of electric vehicles will reach 95%of the personal purchase of new cars.

Regarding the key results of cars (KR 1.2), by 2030, electric vehicles will occupy the vast majority of new cars sales, which is a big step from any aspect. Fortunately, thanks to a strong public policy, the future we need is now becoming a reality in some parts of Europe. The market share in the Norwegian new car sales has reached 75%. In China, this proportion has exceeded 5%, making it the world's largest electric vehicle sales market. In large cities in China, one of each of the five cars sold in the market is an electric car. Although the United States is the hometown of Tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle manufacturer, the market share of American electric vehicles is less than 2%.

At present, large -scale car manufacturers who are dominant have also seen this growth trend. Volkswagen's investment in electrification will exceed $ 85 billion by 2025. GM, Ford and Hyundai also invest in huge sums of money to vigorously develop electric vehicles.

KR 1.3 bus and truck

By 2025, all new increased buses will be electric vehicles; by 2030, 30% of all new and heavy trucks will be zero -emission vehicles; by 2045, 95% of trucks will be zero -emission vehicles.

The key results of the bus and trucks (KR 1.3) focus on the two models. Compared with passenger cars, they have received less attention, but they have a lot of emissions. Although passenger cars and trucks account for only 10%of road vehicles, 25, the greenhouse gas emission accounts for 30%of the global greenhouse gas emissions of the entire transportation department.

KR 1.4 mileage

By 2040, 50% of the global road mileage (including two -wheeled vehicles, tricycles, cars, bus and trucks) will be electric mileage; by 2050, this proportion will reach 95%.

Reach a decrease of 5 billion tons

The correlation between the key results of the mileage (KR 1.4) and the emission reduction is the most direct. By focusing on the total driving mileage, this data covers all vehicles driving on the road, from newly produced electric vehicles to the oldest and dirtiest fuel vehicles. In 2020, less than 1% of global passenger cars mileage was electric vehicle mileage. Considering that the total mileage around the world is as high as 13 trillion miles, the mileage proportion of electric vehicles will reach 100% by 2050, which will be a great change. KR 1.5 shipping

By 2025, 20% of flight mileage will use low -carbon fuel; by 2040, 40% of flight mileage will achieve carbon neutrality.

Achieve a reduction of 300 million tons

The key result of shipping (KR 1.5) calls on the aviation industry to accelerate the use of sustainable aviation fuels. Our goal is to use low -carbon fuels in the total airline mileage by 2025. From a longer -term perspective, the aviation industry needs to innovatively find the path of carbon neutralization and create more efficient aircraft using synthetic fuel, power or hydrogen fuel driver.

Kr 1.6 shipping

By 2030, all new ships will be converted to "zero discharge" ships.

Reach a decrease of 600 million tons

Regarding the key results of shipping (KR 1.6) requires more actively reducing sea transportation emissions of cargo ships and passenger ships. Heavy oil produces a large amount of carbon dioxide and sulfur oxides, of which more than 2/3 of the discharge occurs within 250 miles from the coastline, and hundreds of millions of people are exposed to harmful pollutants. Considering that the service life of bulk carrons is generally 15 years long, the efforts of the decarburization of the shipping department are particularly challenging. The feasible forward road is to promote the manufacturing or modification of ships in the shipping industry, to achieve "zero emissions", and use more clean energy. At the same time, you can also reduce the emissions of shipping through a series of measures, including reducing the speed of ships, using more efficient engines, upgrading the hull and promoting system, and increasing filters. Ads to them.

Policy help sales accelerate

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In order to achieve key results (KR 1.2), the sales of electric vehicles must be quickly increased. To make electric vehicles the main body of car sales by 2030, by 2025, one of the three cars sold in the world must be an electric car, which means that it is necessary to greatly increase electric vehicles in a very short period of time. The usage rate. The new policy is crucial, but to promote this transformation, the following three existing policies must be strengthened as soon as possible.

First of all, we need greater efforts to motivate funds, mainly tax credits or tax refund to make up for the gap between the early green premium of the purchase of electric vehicles and the cost of gasoline for a long time. This is exactly the purpose of the United States in 2009 that electric vehicles can enjoy $ 7,500 federal tax credit policy. However, we can do worse, not to limit the tax credit to the earliest buyer of a certain model, but to implement the policy for a long time. When the market price of electric vehicles is greatly lower than the cheap fuel vehicle, it is gradually canceled. As Mary Bala pointed out, "you should not punish them because of the pioneers willing to take risks."

Secondly, in order to accelerate the elimination of fuel vehicles, it is necessary to provide funds to the owners with funding incentives, so that they are scrapped instead of selling fuel cars. If you can launch a new plan that is better than the 2009 version of the "old car exchange cash" incentive mechanism and the funds reward is more generous, you can make millions of gasoline vehicles no longer on the road at a low cost.

Finally, the traffic policy is promulgated to prohibit the sales of all fuel vehicles, that is, the "electric vehicle sales regulations". This measure alone can achieve 3/4 of the emission reduction required by the entire transportation department. At least 8 European countries, plus Israel and Canada have stated that they will ban the use of fuel engines. China is also making a timetable. Gavin Newsom, Governor of California, ordered a ban from 2035, and 32 other 11 governors called on President Bayeng to implement the same policy across the United States.

Waiting for these policies to take effect, we need to improve the fuel efficiency standards of all fuel and hybrid vehicles. If cars, trucks and buses have to burn carbon -containing fuel, each consumption of gallon gasoline should be able to drive a farther distance.

BYD's success -the rapid development of the electric bus market

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Among all transportation methods, big buss have gone the farthest in using electric vehicle technology. Considering the huge air pollution caused by diesel power bus, pollution caused by large buss is a urgent issue. This problem is particularly prominent in big cities in the world. The rise of BYD shows how far a green company can go when the savvy corporate behavior has gained generous returns with the strong support of the government.

BYD's founder and CEO Wang Chuanfu became an engineer after graduating from college. In 1995, he founded his own company and chose the first letters of "Build your dream" as the company's name. More than 20 years later, Wang Chuanfu has achieved great success and has won the list of the rich in China.

BYD started with the production of mobile phone batteries, and then continued to expand to start producing tablet computers and laptops and solar storage products. The company was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In 2003, Wang Chuanfu established BYD's car company, which is much higher than the risk of battery business. With the support of the government, BYD can even compete with Tesla in the global electric vehicle market. In many large cities in China, air pollution is an obvious nightmare. Under the leadership of Wang Chuanfu, BYD's response to climatic issues is to develop electric large bus while developing low -priced compact cars. The company has successfully reduced China's crowded roads to reduce thousands of diesel passenger cars. Shenzhen, with a population of 17 million people, has now fully achieved the electricization of bus and taxis, and is approaching the goal of fully realizing the electrification of the delivery vehicle.

The story of the Chinese electric bus market shows that public policies can accelerate the application of innovation and new technologies. In order to solve the problem of limited battery life and shortage of charging facilities, the government provided BYD with more than $ 1 billion of funding and subsidies, and provided capital incentives to electric vehicle consumers. Electric vehicles are the core components of the "Made in China 2025" strategic plan. After the Chinese government provides US $ 50 billion in support, BYD has occupied the core position in the efforts of the global electric vehicle leadership position. With the support of the public sector's investment in R & D funds, tax reduction and exemption, and the strong support of charging stations, at least 400 companies in China have participated in the field of electric vehicle business.

A investor keenly noticed that this valuable investment opportunity was Volon Buffett, who snapped up BYD's 8% shares. Buffett's recognition attracted other opportunities. In 2013, the mayor of Landester, 70 miles north of Los Angeles, invited BYD to build its first American factory there. By 2016, Wang Chuanfu's company delivered hundreds of electric bus to California's towns. In 2017, BYD expanded its manufacturing business in California, but the opening ceremony of the new factory did not attract the attention of the United States. However, Kevin McCarthy, then the leader of the Republican House of Representatives, attended because the new factory was in his constituency. McCarthy took the lead in praising BYD because it promised to hire 1 200 workers and create 1,500 electric bus every year.

At the 2016 public press conference, a preliminary draft of the "technical exploration" of the Energy Fund broke through the Energy Fund. For the field of transportation, 13 technological innovations were proposed to help us achieve net zero emission goals. Some of us have achieved it, and some still need to continue to explore. In the future, we will continue to use scientific and innovative power to greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

"Speed ​​and scale: Carbon neutral OKR Action Guide"

John Duer

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CITIC Publishing Group

August 2022

Introduction: In 2006, in a crucial dinner discussion, when John Duer's 15 -year -old daughter filed a challenge to the climate crisis, he was speechless. Since then, the author has been committed to finding a way to reverse the global warming trend.

During the 15 years of concern to the environmental crisis, the author deeply felt that it was urgent to solve the current crisis, and humans had no time to try and error and buffer. Therefore, he joined forces with scientists, decision makers, social activists, business leaders and charity. This effective tool has formulated a clear and can be followed by net zero emissions in 2050.

This book is divided into two parts. The first part starts with six large areas that can reduce the climate crisis, including transportation, power, agriculture, natural protection, industrial, and carbon clearance. Objectives and methods that need to be achieved at each stage. The second part explores issues, technology and investment related to clean energy, carbon neutralization and economics. Each goal in each chapter is equipped with a set of key results to facilitate the progress of progress in these fields to show how to do it, and whether to speed up the pace or correct the direction.

This is a set of frosted carbon neutralization solutions. It is also a guide to find the "zero carbon" economic new air outlet from the perspective of investors. It is also an effective reference for the government and entrepreneurs on how companies transform under the goal of "dual carbon".

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