Can Ukraine's counterattack win?Expert analysis: offensive is more difficult than defense, and Wu terror ability is limited
Author:Red Star News Time:2022.08.31
According to reports, the Ukrainian military announced on August 29 that the Ukraine has launched a counterattack against the Russian army in the southern region. The operation target includes recapture Hermone and said that it has broken through the first line of defense of the Russian army. Alexeis Tosovic, the consultant of Ukraine President Zelekiski, said that he should not expect the Ukraine to "achieve a rapid victory" and warn that "action may be slow." He said: "Although many people want us to conduct large -scale and fast actions, it is difficult for us to do it. We have limited funds."
Regarding the counterattack of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense insisted on Monday (August 29) local time (August 29) that Ukraine's counterattack was "defeated" and the losses were serious. The Russian Ministry of Defense spokesman Konashenkov said at a press conference that according to the order of President Ukraine Zessky, the Ukraine tried to launch an attack in the direction of Nicholaev Crivilih, but suffered a fiaful defeat. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday (August 30th) local time that the Russian army repelled the Urpical attack and destroyed its 48 tanks, 46 infantry chariots, 37 other armored chariots, 8 installed installations with installations with installations. The pickup of heavy machine guns and eliminated 1,200 soldiers.
It is reported that Wufang did not give detailed information about counterattack operations, and there were Wuqian line soldiers revealed that there was no so -called "big counterattack" in front. Some analysts believe that Ukraine tries to make its actions in the southern region a turning point. The Australian retired Army Major General Mick Ryan believes that Ukraine's "anti -offensive war" will be very difficult. "Compared with the defense operation, the offensive operation can test the coordination and support of each other."
Ruian also pointed out that Ukrafe hopes to prove to Western countries by this counterattack that Ukraine has a certain combat ability and hopes to get further support. However, some analysts point out that with the continuous conflict and the problems of European countries in Europe, it is difficult for Zelezki to attract the attention of European countries. According to previous reports, throughout July, six European countries such as Britain, France, and Germany did not provide any new bilateral military assistance commitments to Ukraine.
↑ Russia said that the counterattack of Ukraine was "defeated" and the loss was serious.
▶ ▷ Counterattack really started?
Frontline soldiers: no weapon analyst: not much time
It is reported that Kyiv had been promoted a "big counterattack" a few months ago. On the evening of Sunday (August 28) local time, Zerrenzki also said that Ukraine will re -control all the territories controlled by the Russian army, including recapture Donbas, which is almost completely controlled by the Russian army.
It is reported that on August 12, under the billions of dollars, the Urpotaire's front line was almost impossible to see the Urpotaire's signs of launching a large -scale counterattack. It is reported that Western intelligence and military analysis agencies have recently predicted that Ukraine will soon take "counterattack operations", but Ukrainian soldiers seem to be "almost unable to act." Ukrainian officials argued at the time that more Western weapons were needed to support Ukraine operations. Officials from Ukraine also acknowledged that Ukraine is currently unable to launch a comprehensive attack on the front line. Ukraine anonymous defense intelligence officials said: "We have to admit that Ukraine does not have enough weapons and equipment to counterattack."
It is reported that when Ukraine officially claims to launch a counterattack, soldiers on the front line have different opinions. Ukrainian soldiers on the front line of Hermuson revealed that there are indeed competitions in the local area, but it is not the kind of "counterattack" promoted by the official. A soldier who has been on Hermone since March said that there is no so -called "counterattack" and will not be available in the future. "We don't even have (for counterattack) weapons." The soldier added.
Kirill Mikhailov, an analyst of the Intelligence Investigation Agency "Conflict Intelligence Group", also said that there is not much time to leave Ukraine to launch a counterattack. He explained that by October, the ground may become very muddy and will make military operations very difficult.
↑ It is reported that offense is usually more difficult than defensive
▶ ▷ Can Ukraine counterattack success?
Offensive is more difficult than defense, Wu Fei is not capable
It is reported that, given the importance of Hermuson, if the Ukraine's counterattack in Hermuson has won, it will have strong symbolic significance and can prove to Western countries that "money is not paid for nothing." However, the report also bluntly stated that no matter how Ukraine tries, it is unlikely to succeed.
The report pointed out that offense is usually more difficult than defense. According to the law of military experience, the offensive requirement requires a 3: 1 troops (number) advantage to have the opportunity to win, and Ukraine has suffered serious losses in the past 6 months. It is reported that Zalu, commander -in -chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, said that since the outbreak of Russia and Ukraine, nearly 9,000 Ukrainian soldiers were sacrificed. It is reported that the actual number of deaths may be much higher than this.
In addition, the offense also needs to combat the arms. The report pointed out that combat combats of joint arms are very complicated, and they need to coordinate each other in infantry, armored forces and air forces to cover each other and make progress on the battlefield. However, at present, Ukraine does not seem to have such an advantage and ability. The report also pointed out that any offense will make Ukraine a high price. Even if Ukraine wins the counterattack and continues to support the West, Ukraine will also make Ukraine "great vitality."
Emma Ashford, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, believes that the "reversal" situation in Russia and Ukraine may be very small. The analysis also believes that the goal of Ukraine's "will re -regain all territories occupied by Russia" is not achieved within the scope of ability.
↑ As the conflict continues, many European countries are facing tests
▶ ▷ "Winter is coming"
Can European allies continue to support Ukraine?
It is reported that in the first half of the first half of the Russian and Ukraine conflict, the West showed "surprisingly" unity in Kyiv's transportation weapons and sanctions Russia. However, as the Russian conflict continues, European countries have begun to "be difficult to protect themselves." It is reported that the soaring prices and energy prices and the upcoming cold winter will be a major test for European countries. European countries may "fall apart" on the Ukrainian issue.
It is reported that in the next few months, it will be the most difficult months since the conflict between European countries. The European people will clearly feel a series of crises, and some people even have to choose in the "eating or heating". At the same time, Europe has also collected many Ukrainian refugees. In this context, it is difficult for European leaders to prove to the people of their own countries. It is reasonable to support other countries to support other countries.
TheResa Fallon, director of the Russian-Eurasian Research Center, said that if Ukraine still cannot achieve results on the battlefield, it will face a difficult situation. Faron believes that Zelezzky should now vigorously promote Ukraine's progress. "Once people think that Kyiv is a failed party, everyone may ask: Why do we also provide expensive weapons to Ukraine under such economic pressure, and they can't achieve results?"
Falun also emphasized that many Western countries will enter its "unstable period" in China next. It is understood that the United Kingdom will be elected by the new Prime Minister on September 5. Italy will hold a national election in advance on September 25, and the United States will also hold mid -term elections in November. "As domestic political issues dominate, citizens may ask: Why do we help Ukraine instead of improving the construction of their own national infrastructure?" Farun analyzed.
Red Star News reporter Li Jinrui
Editor Guan Li Guozhuang
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