Chen Bing: Is the Russian army retreating or a big move?

Straight News: Mr. Chen, the Ukraine counterattacked in the eastern part to regain the control of Ijum in the town, and the Russian army claimed that it was the active retreat of tactical reorganization. What do you think?

Special commentator Chen Bing: Starting from mid -August, the Ukrainian army claimed to counterattack the Hermuson front of the southern part, but it seemed to have not made progress. But suddenly, it made progress in the northeast of Ukraine to seize two strategic places: Ijum and Kippanask. In this regard, Russia does not deny it, and says that giving up these theater is a strategic retreat. The Russian army will concentrate their strengths to complete the established goal of liberating Bas.

We can see the latest situation from two aspects. From the perspective of Ukraine, the strategy of "south to the east" may be adopted. Although I have always said that they want to counterattack the Hermuson region in the south, they have launched an attack in the northeast and achieved a certain victory. Essence From the perspective of Russia, in order to defend the results of Donbas, the northeast troops were transferred to Donbas, so it was described as a "strategic retreat". Of course, it is not ruled out that the Russian army was led by the Ukraine's nose. In order to strengthen the southern defense, the Russian army lost the northeast defense zone. However, like the Russian army retreating from Kyiv in April, this "strategic retreat" seems to have a strong taste. After all, Russia faces 40 Western countries instead of Ukraine.

After more than half a year of the war, the Russian weapons and ammunition consumed seriously, while the United States and West continued to supply military fires for the Ukraine, including some advanced weapons. Coupled with Russia's air in Europe, it has a great impact on European and American solidarity, and it does not rule out that the US military has strengthened the provision of intelligence and tactical conducting the U.S. military. According to the latest disclosure of the New York Times, the U.S. military provides more detailed intelligence to the Ukraine, including the Russian command and ammunition depot, and guidance on the Ukraine's counterattack plan. Essence As for whether the Russian army was fighting a big move, waiting for the martial arts team to fight for the army in the winter, to overcome the main fortresses of the Ukraine and drive straight into it, it remains to be observed. Judging from the two strategic retreats of the Russian army, the Russian troops are also limited. Therefore, in order to complete the expected strategic goals, the Russian army may break through regular wars and adopt new tactical warfare. Some new weapons in Russia have not yet entered the battlefield. For example, "dagger" and "vermiculite" hypersonic missiles, they just tried a little sharpness. If they were sent to the battlefield in large quantities, they might change the situation of the battle.

Direct news: Europe and the United States are continuously assisted Ukraine, and the President of Ukraine is getting bigger and bigger. He claims to regain Crimea. How do you think Russia will respond?

Special commentator Chen Bing: Russia's counterattack strategy is still unclear. What we know is that Russia said that it would "freeze to death" Europe. By cutting off the natural gas supply to Europe, the Europeans oppose their government, then take care of their own country, and then consider the situation of Ukraine. In terms of military affairs, people are guessing that the Russian army might be in a big move. Some people also say that retreat from northeast Ukraine is to seduce the enemy to go deep, drill into the "pocket" and "close the door to fight dogs" and annihilate it in one fell swoop. Essence However, from the perspective of Russia's economic strength, it remains to be observed whether it can fight with 40 US -Europe countries.

Now in Europe and the United States, they are strengthening the U -military aid. The Secretary of State of the United States and the German Foreign Ministers have gone to Kyiv. They carry military expenses and weapons with them. It is estimated that British Prime Minister Tellas will soon go to Kyiv. These all show that the West will do its best to support Ukraine and fight against Russia, because the people on the earth know that Ukraine fails, and Russia controls the Donbass region, which means the failure of the United States and the decline in the United States. The international speech will be greatly lost, and it is not ruled out that the United States will fight hard to support Ukraine. However, Russia is a nuclear country, and the nuclear deterrence is strong enough, and Russia does not rule out the movement of Russia. Because of the fear of this, the United States is quite cautious.

Russia and Ukraine's military conflict is the first "New Cold War". It not only has military operations, but also includes economic war, information war, and public opinion war. Russia has shown wisdom in the economic war. Russia falls down, so Russia's counterattack strategy will definitely not just "break the breath", it will not eat by the day, and to maintain the results of the battlefield in winter. This "New Cold War" will last for several years, but I estimate that this winter is a hurdle, whether it is to Europe or Russia, it is a severe test. Perhaps the situation of Russia and Ukraine will have a eyebrow until February and March next year, at least it can be seen that the general trend will be seen. Now, no one can tell how the situation in Russia and Ukraine has changed, including the US President Biden Biden.

Author 丨 Chen Bing, special commentator of Shenzhen Satellite TV "Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan"

Editor 丨 Yang Ying, editor -in -chief of Shenzhen Satellite TV Direct News

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