Tellas won, the British economy is stable?

Two months after the former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his resignation, Britain will usher in the new Prime Minister and the ruling party, the head of the ruling party.

However, Britain was experiencing a serious economic crisis at this time. The soaring inflation rate, high energy bill, continuous living cost crisis ... Faced with such a "dark moment" of thorns, where should the new owner at 10 Tangning Street go?

Tellas Picture Source: Visual China

"New Iron Lady" came to power

On September 5, local time, Graham Bredi, chairman of the "1922 Committee" of the British Parliament Conservative Party Member Group, announced the voting results of the preferred election of the Conservative Party. The current Foreign Minister Tellas defeated the former Financial Minister Sonak, and was elected as the new party of the Conservative Party ruling in the United Kingdom.

On the 6th, at 47 -year -old Tras will go to Scotland to be officially appointed by the British Queen Elizabeth II and become the new Prime Minister in the UK. Subsequently, Tellas will return to London, give an inauguration speech in front of the Prime Minister's Mansion, and announce the list of new cabinet members.

In the past two months, Johnson agreed to resign from the position of British Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader under a series of public opinion and intra -party pressures on July 7, but continued to serve the Conservative Party to choose a new party leader. Later, the British Parliament Conservative Party Group held five rounds of internal voting from July 13. On July 20, the Conservative Council Party selected the two of the final "confrontation" of the two party leaders, namely the former Financial Ministers Sonak and the current Foreign Minister Tellas.

Picture source: Visual China

It is worth mentioning that Tras is the first female judge and judicial minister in the UK. After Johnson reorganized the cabinet in September 2021, she became the second female diplomatic minister in British history.

Many media reported that she imitated Mrs. Sachel's dress, and Tras also won the title of "New Iron Lady". According to the British Sky News Network, for a long time, Tras has been "inspired by Mrs. Iscele" and is famous for its liberalist views on economic and trade.

In 2010, Tellas entered the British Parliament and originally served as a member of the Southwest Norfolk. Since then, he has held multiple positions among the government led by Cameron, Trysa May and Johnson.

In the 2016 Brexit "Brexit" referendum, Tras was a supporter of "staying in Europe", but in 2017, it changed to support the "Brexit" and contributed to the trade agreement between the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia and other countries. The conservative party has won generally praised.

British economy bleak

Johnson was forced to step down after being confused by scandals such as "party doors" and was questioned, leaving many problems for Tras.

First, economic recession.

According to a Bloomberg website reported on September 2, Britain has fallen behind India and has become the sixth largest economy in the world. This ranking is obtained from the GDP (GDP) data calculated based on the US dollar.

Of course, in recent years, the British are no stranger to the decline in the economy. Affected by the epidemic in 2020, British GDP fell 9.9%, which was considered the worst decline since 1709. Since then, the United Kingdom has launched an economic stimulus plan of up to 280 billion pounds. In addition, the epidemic prevention is completely "lying down" and the economy has recovered.

The Bank of England predicts that the British nominal GDP will increase by 3.5%in 2022. Except for inflation factors, it may fall into a comparable decline in 2020. The Bank of England also predicts that the economic recession will begin in the fourth quarter of this year, which will last until early 2024, with a length of 15 months.

Second, high inflation.

On August 17, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom showed that the British consumer price index (CPI) in July increased by 10.1%year -on -year, and after June, it refreshed the inflation record since 1982. As a result, Britain became the first country in the G7 countries to break through the double digits.

In fact, since last winter, Britain's inflation rate has risen all the way, and has repeatedly broke the record in recent months. Although British inflation has exceeded double digits, it is not the highest point. The Bank of England's Bank of England predicts that the CPI will continue to rise, and it is expected to exceed 13%in the fourth quarter, and will remain high next year.

In addition, the rise in prices leads to downgrade consumption. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Kingdom, British retail sales decreased by 0.1%again in June after May this year.

Picture source: Visual China

Third, the cost of life is rising.

The British Energy Regulatory Agency "Natural Gas and Power Market Office" (OFGEM) recently announced that starting from October 1 this year, the upper limit of the annual energy bill of domestic domestic families will increase £ 1971 (about 15,848 yuan) rose 80%, which is equivalent to the average of nearly 300 pounds of energy bills per family.

To make matters worse, the upper limit of energy prices will soar. The British Energy Consulting Institution "Corwel Insight" predicts that the upper limit of the energy bill in January 2023 may rise to £ 5,387, and it may soar to £ 6,616 in April. The prediction of the consulting agency has reference value, and its October energy price forecast is only 5 pounds less than the results of the official announcement of the British energy regulatory agency.

The British Chamber of Commerce predicts that in the British family consumption expenditure, it will increase by 3.8%in 2022, increased by 0.3%in 2023, and 1.1%in 2024. The loss rate in 2022 will reach 3.8%, and will rise to 4.1%in 2023 and 2024. On September 1st, the British "Guardian" quoted the latest think tank research report that if the British government did not take effective measures such as tens of billions of pounds of financial support, in the next two years, soaring energy bills will reduce the income of British families by excess over excessive oversupply 10%, causing additional 3 million people into poverty.

Fourth, strikes continue.

According to media reports, since this summer, people in many industries such as the British railway, aviation, London, and docks have held several strikes, asking for salary increases to cope with the high inflation rate of breaking records. This dissatisfaction is fermented in all walks of life. Schools, hospitals, and court staff threatened to join the strike in the next few weeks to protest the wage increase to keep up with inflation.

For example, last month, nearly 2,000 workers in Britain's largest container port Felixto started the eight -day strike from August 21st local time; on August 26 local time, about 115,000 Royal Post workers held strikes. Essence This is a strike that British employees failed to keep up with the pace of inflation.

Picture source: Visual China

The British "Financial Times" bluntly stated that "Given the current situation in the UK, the new Prime Minister may face one of the shortest political honeymoon periods in modern history."

New Prime Minister task is arduous

As mentioned earlier, the British economic decline is "long -standing." During Johnson's reign, he failed to solve the British economic problem.

After "Brexit", Johnson wanted to use this opportunity to make the United Kingdom into the so -called "Global Britain". With an independent sovereign state identity, adhering to the economic concept of liberalism, Britain can realize the "sea in the ocean of the global economic system. "Both the fish leap", the British economy, which is not too dazzling.

Picture source: Visual China

However, people are not as good as heaven. The decline in external investment confidence caused by Brexit and the break of various industrial chains, the British economy fell into a weak time in the following period of time, and its growth was weak. Soon after that, the century epidemic struck again. Under the dual impact of Brexit and epidemic, the British economy is getting worse. Coupled with the energy shortage encountered at the end of last year, the Russian -Ukraine conflict broke out this year, which made inflations high and severely dragged down the economic recovery.

Today, Tras is facing a more severe situation. Earlier, Tras said that controlling inflation is the responsibility of the Bank of England. "Reducing inflation is the responsibility of the Bank of England. At the same time, we need to do our best to help people," she said in the BBC program. She refused whether she would support a significant interest rate hike, saying that she "believed" the independence of the central bank.

Last Saturday night, British Prime Minister Tellas wrote in the Daily Telegraph, "If you are elected, I plan to be in the first week of my new government governing, which explains that in terms of energy costs and energy supply The next step is taken. We need to make difficult decisions so that we will not be in this state in every autumn and winter. It is impossible to repairs and delay the problem. Decide to restore our economy. "

In addition, although the "Brexit" negotiations during the Johnson period have long been completed, the actual effect of "Brexit" is not unsatisfactory, and it is even contradictory.

This is mainly manifested in two aspects, one is trade with the EU. Today, the British and European trade has not been perfectly resolved in terms of tariff settings and the management and control of fishery resources, and there will be some crickets from time to time. The second is the status of Northern Ireland. It stands to reason that through the "Northern Ireland Protocol" in the Brexit Agreement, Northern Ireland is retained in the European Union's common market, forming a "soft boundary" with the EU. However, for British natives, this "protocol" has formed a "hard boundary" between Northern Ireland and Britain, which seems absurd or ironic for a unified country. In order to exclude the United Kingdom from outside the European Union's common market, it is necessary to stay in the European Union's common market as part of the United Kingdom, and to set up a customs inspection station in the Irish side in the British and Northern Ireland waters to deal with it to deal with it to deal with Cargo shipping to the European Union. This makes the circulation of goods in Britain and Ireland extremely inconvenient.

Picture source: Visual China

Not long ago, in the local parliamentary election in Northern Ireland, the New Fen Party, which supported the division of North Ireland, won the first leading position in the history of the North Ireland and the second largest party "Unified Party", which supports North Ireland and the United Kingdom. This "hard border" measure of North Ireland and Britain. As the Prime Minister, Johnson was obviously under the pressure of potential "land division" and its related opinions. He had to re -consider the status of Northern Ireland and asked the EU to re -negotiate, but the European Union refused to tear his existing agreement. It can be seen that Johnson came to power due to the background of "Brexit", but at the end of the ruling, he failed to solve the problem of "Brexit". Whether it was Northern Ireland, a unified England or the European Union, it seemed to be "Brexit "The problem of the problem is not satisfactory.

For this matter, in mid -August, if he took over as the Prime Minister in the interview, Scotland would never be allowed to hold a second referendum.The reporter should not be mentioned by any referendum.Since then, the Financial Times also reported that Tellas will launch the "Northern Ireland Protocol" emergency clause on the grounds of "maintaining the country's split" within a few days after the election, thereby tearing the agreement.In addition, the Financial Times pointed out that the relationship between Britain and the European Union had fallen to the bottom within the office of Johnson.Tras promised to promote legislation and rewrite the Northern Ireland Protocol.This will make the relationship between Britain and the European Union tense and may even have a trade war.

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