After exceeding the United Kingdom, India will also "Super Decerity" in 2029

The key to whether India can achieve long -term goals depends on its development quality, and there are still many difficult problems in India's economy to solve.

For India, GDP (GDP) surpasses the United Kingdom and becomes the fifth largest economy in the world. It is undoubtedly a major event that inspires ethnic morale. According to the latest report released by the National Bank of India, India is expected to surpass Germany in 2027 and surpass Japan in 2029, achieving the economic development goal of the "top three in the world."

Experts believe that based on India's population volume and long -term development trend, India's GDP surpasses Britain is an inevitable trend. However, the key to India's long -term goals depends on its development quality, and there are still many difficult problems in India's economy to solve.

It has special symbolic significance

Statistics released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently showed that the Indian economy surpassed the UK in the first quarter of 2021 and continued to expand its leading advantage in the first quarter of this year. It has now become the second only to the United States, China, Japan, and Germany. The fifth largest economy in the world.

Specifically, India's nominal GDP in the first quarter of this year was $ 854.7 billion and Britain was $ 816 billion. In addition, the British GDP also appeared 0.1%in the second quarter of this year, and the gap with India further expanded. At the same time, the exchange rate of the British pound against India has fallen by 8%this year. IMF is expected that India's GDP will continue to overcome Britain this year.

Indian Prime Minister Modi said on August 15 that India will be built into a developed country in 2047. Photo source: OrangeNews

Britain has long been colonial rule for India and has been degraded to India. Therefore, for Indian social elites and the masses with strong nationalist emotions, GDP has special symbolic significance beyond Britain.

The ruling Indian People's Party issued a post on social media, referring to the reform of the Prime Minister Modi, which refers to the "glorious example". Indian Treasury Secretary Sitraman said that India is the fastest -growing economy in the world, and its economic growth rate will remain in two digits, and the possibility of falling into economic recession will be zero.

Specific data is intriguing

Ten years ago, India's GDP ranking was still in the top ten, and now it has become the fifth largest economy after the United States, China, Japan, and Germany.

However, if the relevant data is analyzed a little, it will be found that there is another world behind India's dazzling economic performance. According to statistics, the actual GDP of the first fiscal quarter of India from 2022 to 2023 increased by 13.5%year -on -year, the fastest growth rate in one year, and is the fastest economy in the world. However, it should not be ignored that it was the most serious period of India's epidemic in the second quarter of last year. At that time, India's medical system was on the verge of collapse and the economy fell into wither.

Delta's strain raged India last year. New Delhi and other places were exhausted, and a large number of people were forced to incinerate their own body. Picture source: NBC

Liu Zongyi, Secretary -General of the China and South Asian Research Center of Shanghai International Institute, believes that this data shows that India ’s economic recovery this year is closely related to the changes in the new crown epidemic, which is largely rebounded after the epidemic. "At present, 13.5%of India's economy is not surprising. Moreover, this increase is lower than 16.2%expected by the Bank of India and 15.2%of the market expectations."

"More importantly, although India's economy has increased significantly, the proportion of manufacturing is actually falling." Liu Zongyi emphasized that Modi shouted the slogan of "India manufacturing" at a high profile at the beginning of the stage, but the relevant data showed that the Indian economy was The recovery is currently more dependent on the consumption and service industry.

Confidence exists "temperature difference" internal and external

In fact, although the international community is optimistic about India's long -term development prospects, it has obvious "temperature differences" in the outside world in terms of growth expectations in the next few years.

Reuters quoted a number of international economists analyzed that the status of India's "global GDP growth rate is the fastest economy" may be "aquarians" because the country is tired of the unemployment and inflation rate, domestic consumption, and domestic consumption. It is impossible to continue to provide motivation for economic growth.

At the same time, international financial institutions including Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have also cautious views on India's continuous high -speed growth expectations. Goldman Sachs lowered its expectations for the annual growth of the Indian economy, and reduced India's GDP growth in 2022 from 7.6%to 7%. Morgan Stanley said that India's fiscal year is expected to have a risk of 40 basis points.

Due to land acquisition and other issues, India's first high -speed rail currently exists on the map. Picture source: GJ

Liu Zongyi believes that the key to whether India's economy can maintain high -speed growth is the quality of development, and the land issue and labor issues are particularly critical. Taking the first high -speed rail in India, which moved in 2017 as an example, only 10 kilometers were built in June this year. At the same time, the growth and model of India's economy cannot fully absorb the 12 million newly -employed population each year.

"In addition, the Indian government's support for monopoly consortia and the nationalist tendencies in economic policies, especially the suppression of Chinese enterprises and investment in India, will also adversely affect India's long -term development." Liu Zongyi emphasized.

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Writing Yang Yifan

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