Farming in the property market: positive changes and expected defenders

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Kong Haili Beijing report

Under the influence of a series of policies for the stability of the people's livelihood, some positive changes have begun to be reflected in real estate data.

According to data on September 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in August this year, the decline in the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing nationwide narrowed, the decline in the funds of real estate companies was narrowing, and the investment in real estate renewal projects remained increasing.

But overall, the real estate market continues the downturn. In August, the decline in land acquisition and construction continued to expand, development and investment declined year -on -year, and house prices declined as a whole, and the number of new houses and second -hand housing prices increased.

"Since the beginning of this year, the local area has adhered to the positioning of the house for not being fried. Because of the policy of the city, using the policy toolbox, supporting rigid and improving housing needs, compacting responsibilities, and maintaining the people's livelihood. It is gradually emerging. "Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics and Director of the Department of Statistics of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics, summarized at the press conference of the national economic operation in August.

Despite some positive changes, Fu Linghui also pointed out that it is necessary to see that the real estate market is still downward. "It still requires a process from the aspect of sales to the production of real estate investment." He said.

Analysts in the industry believe that the restoration of the real estate market and the restoration of confidence are the key. Supporting policies at both ends of supply and demand need to be further optimized and implemented, improve market expectations, and boost confidence.

Positive change

Several repair trends are mainly reflected in the supply side.

First, the decline in market sales has narrowed. From January to August, the sales area of ​​commodity housing nationwide decreased by 23%year-on-year, and the decline was narrowed by 0.1 percentage points from January to July. The sales of commercial housing fell by 27.9%, a narrowing of 0.9 percentage points. Among them, the decline in sales of small and medium -sized houses has a narrower decline.

However, this narrowing is differentiated between different areas. From January to August, the sales area of ​​commercial housing in the eastern region had a narrowing year-on-year decline, and the cumulative decline in market sales in the central, western and northeast regions continued to visit, and the market sentiment has not yet been restored.

The second is that the investment in real estate renewal projects has maintained growth. The local insurance diplomacy has steadily advanced, and the effect is gradually emerging. From January to August, the investment growth rate of real estate development projects that will enter the delivery stage for more than two years will increase the growth rate of real estate development projects.

The advancement of the work of insurance and diplomatic relations is also reflected in the decline in the decline in the completion area. From January to August, the completion area fell 21.1%, a narrowing of 2.2 percentage points from -23.3%in January-July, and the completion area of ​​a single month fell 2.5%, which was more obvious from -36%in July. This means that there are significant progress in keeping delivery and promoting delivery.

Wang Xiaoyu, chief analyst of Zhuge Finding Data Research Center, believes that after the suspension of loan incidents, the central and local governments actively advocate the security of the insurance and set up a special work of the insurance delivery building, which has achieved certain results. Weaken.

Third, the decline of real estate enterprises has narrowed in place. From January to August, real estate development companies have decreased by 25%year-on-year funds this year, a narrowing of 0.4 percentage points from January-July.

This is also due to the recent advocacy of the central bank and the National Council. The regulatory level has continuously emphasized that it is necessary to enhance the effective investment of credit, guide the decline in market interest rates by reducing policy interest rates, and support reasonable financing needs.

"However, the developer's external financing is still frozen. Internal funds depends on the recovery situation of the sales side. In the future, real estate companies have challenged funds." Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Rule Council, pointed out.

Another change in segmentation is manifested as a month -on -month increase in the price of new houses in hot cities.

In August, Shanghai, Beijing, Nanjing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu, the new houses, were led by Shanghai with a increase of 0.6%; other cities rose 0.4%.

Li Yujia believes that the high -priced trading of the central area of ​​hot cities has obviously rising the price of new house prices. With the decline in new construction and continuous supply, there are fewer new markets in the central area. , Resulting in high -priced sales in the central area.

Overall is still downward

Under the comprehensive influence of the weak expectations of home buyers and the traditional sales off -season, the overall real estate market is still down.

In August, the overall decline of the new housing and second -hand housing prices expanded compared to the previous month, and more than 70 % of cities showed a decline. The prices of cities in various tier cities have weakened than last month. The overall increase in first -tier cities has narrowed from the previous month, and second -tier and third -tier cities have fallen or declined or expanded from the previous month.

The price of new houses and second -hand housing has fallen into a new high number of cities. In terms of new houses, in August, the price of new houses in 50 cities fell, an increase of 10 from last month, and the number of cities has reached a new high since March 2015. In terms of second -hand housing, in August, 56 cities in 70 cities fell month -on -month, compared The month increased 5.

According to the reasons for the decline in house prices, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, believes that seasonal factors and expected factors have an impact. He said that in June each year, it was a peak period for developers, and the number of home buyers also had a large number, but from July to August, it was originally a customary season, so the market recovery momentum fluctuated.

In terms of psychological expectations of buyers, affected by the suspension of lending, buyers are becoming more and more cautious, especially the consumption power of home buyers in second- and third -tier cities has been released due to the optimization of the property market regulation and control. The follow -up confidence is still to be boosted.

The downlink of the supply side is reflected in the aspects of land acquisition, starting and developing investment. From January to August, the area of ​​land purchase nationwide fell 49.7%year-on-year, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from 48.1%in January to July, and a single month of a month-on-year decrease of 56.6%. Developers have low enthusiasm for land acquisition.

The reduction of land to a certain extent has led to a decline in new startup. From January to August, the newly-started area of ​​houses decreased by more than 40 % year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 1.5 and 0.3 percentage points from July, respectively. The corporate investment confidence is still weak.

Land acquisition and start -up data dropped, and further impacted the development of investment data. From January to August, real estate development investment decreased by 7.4%year-on-year, and the decrease was 1 percentage point from last month.

According to industry analysts, these sets of data reflect insufficient investment in housing enterprises. Insufficient sales and difficulty in financing make most of the cash flow of most housing companies cannot improve, and the confidence in investment in housing enterprises has not restored.

Fu Linghui believes that from the aspect of sales to the transmission of real estate investment, it still needs a process to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market and continue to work hard.

Both end -end of supply and demand forecast

Whether it is the trend of house prices or the recovery of the investment side, it is inseparable from the restoration of expectations and confidence.

"The current quantity and price downward represent the market restoration. The market expectations are not enough." Xu Xiaole, the chief market analyst of the Shell Research Institute, said that the uncertainty of the macro environment further aggravated the market's wait -and -see emotions. The second -hand housing boom index that represents the market is expected to fall to 16, and the overall contraction range.

Xu Xiaole further emphasized that the further optimization and implementation of support policies at both ends of supply and demand are the key to improving market expectations. For example, if the demand -end purchase restriction policy is comprehensively optimized, the demand for buying house purchase is to the greatest extent; the flexible and rapid landing of the bailout fund of the supply and delivery of the bureaed property, so that the insured diplomacy has made substantial progress, so that the market expectations can be fundamentally improved.

Li Yujia also believes that the key to stable house prices needs to be exerted both ends. On the one hand, the good news from the supply side will be released from the supply side, and on the other hand, it is necessary to reduce the concerns of residents' income and employment.

At the end of August, the State will clearly propose "allowing local 'one city, one policy," flexible use of credit and other policies to reasonably support rigid and improved housing needs. "Overlay the central bank's 5 -year LPR re -reduced 15 basis points, all of which are optimized property markets in various places. Policy releases space.

In September, the rhythm of policies in various localities accelerated, and key second -tier cities have further increased the intensity of the stabilization market. Recently, strong second -tier cities such as Ningbo and Jinan have optimized the property market restriction policy, making it more conducive to the release of just needs and improving sexual needs.

On the whole, the control optimization is mainly concentrated in the preservation of traffic, flexibly using credit policies, lowered housing loan interest rates, increased support for house purchase, reduced the down payment ratio, optimized purchase restrictions, sales restrictions, and supported the demand for multi -child household housing. The policy of stabilizing the property market has become increasingly larger and richer in content, and many cities continue to upgrade and optimize the policy content.

According to data from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Institute, as of the end of August, there were more than 120 stabilized property market policies of over 90 cities at the end of August. As of August in 2022, real estate regulation has exceeded 700 times during the year. About 67%.

"But in the past two days, some cities have withdrawn the policy, and subsequent hotspot city policies may still be cautious." Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the Index Division of the China Index Research Institute.

From the perspective of market performance, according to the monitoring of the middle finger, in the first two weeks of September, the area of ​​commercial residential residences in key cities decreased significantly, and the traditional "Golden Nine" was less than expected.

Chen Wenjing believes that in the short term, with the further implementation and promotion of the "insurance transportation" measures, real estate development investment is expected to be fixed, but the overall adjustment pressure is still large; Below, the company's willingness to start construction is still insufficient, and the depth adjustment of the new construction area may continue.

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