Li Yujia: The "sunlight" in Shenzhen's mansion does not mean that the property market is fully recovered

Zhongxin Jingwei September 27th. Question: Shenzhen luxury homes are now "sunlight" does not mean that the property market is fully recovered

Author Li Yujia's chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Regulations Institute

In the peak sales season of the year, the Shenzhen property market has sparked some "Golden Nine".

On September 21, a high -end residential project in the Shekou Prince of Shekou was launched, and a 604 set of 604 sets of housing at a starting price of 12.44 million yuan/set was launched, which was sold out on the same day. In the past, there were tens of billions of goods "Sunlight", and 20 million -level fellow shooting rooms were "swept" by Shenzhen high -net -worth individuals. News about the heating up in the Shenzhen property market was widely spread again.

The Shenzhen property market is not a comprehensive recovery

The author's opinion, behind the "red disk" hot sales, the Shenzhen property market is not fully heating.

At present, in the context of the price limit of new housing, the high -quality high -end new market with high cost performance (part of the phenomenon of "one second -hand house price") must be favored by high net worth of high -quality high -end new disks (partially appearing.

In fact, if there is a significant price difference from the second -hand housing, there are also factors such as brand real estate companies, landscape characteristics, and location advantages to add points to the project. In the future, it will not be ruled out that there will be high net worth groups in Shenzhen. The project becomes "Japanese CD".

Judging from the experience of developed countries, even if the urbanization rate has already touched the top of 80%, even if the house has already been excessive and has already ushered in deep aging, housing prices in core cities and core areas will still rise again after falling, and housing prices in some areas will be repaid. Will hit a new high. Behind this is very related to the liquidity, the inflow of capital, and the gathering of the rich.

At present, the Chinese property market has fully opened the process of squeezing foam. In the context of no leveraged blessing, continuous decline in market expectations, and heavy income from high -income people, the Shenzhen property market recovery is also quite obvious.

The "small boom" of the Shenzhen property market this time is essentially that after real estate enters the overall balance stage, funds are "big waves and sand".

Looking at the overall property market, even if a small number of real estate is sold or even "sunlight", in Shenzhen, and new markets in the peripheral area, even if large -scale discounts are discounted and promoted, the project's destination rate is not ideal. , Sales continued to slug.

On the one hand, the "sunlight" of Shenzhen's high -end luxury homes is high in projects. On the one hand, the top -level high -net -worth individuals are affected by the impact of the epidemic. They benefit from the looseness and spilling effect of the currency. Their market has a more sensitive sense of smell and is more capable of quickly shooting at the right time.

Shenzhen housing supply side reforms began to work hard

In recent years, under the guidance of supply -side reform policies, Shenzhen's new house projects have been listed. Taking the Nanshan District where several hot -selling disks are currently located as an example, only 8 projects were launched in 2020. In September 2022, 5 new markets entered the market, all of which were limited prices. And other areas of Shenzhen are similar.

In the past, "land supply" has always been a belief in supporting the rise in house prices in Shenzhen. In recent years, with the reduction of industrial relocation and the demand for emerging industrial land, idle industrial land has changed its living function, "land supply should be in short" has become a pseudo -proposition. The supply of new houses of 60,000 to 70,000 sets per year is equivalent to 2/3 of the number of second-hand housing listings. At the same time, talents and new citizens began to turn to public housing.

The idea of ​​Shenzhen housing supply -side reform is clear: the second -hand housing market with high prices and prominent foaming is put on hold on the other side; in addition, new bureaus will be opened to increase the supply of new housing and public housing, and the demand for diversion housing. As a result, the attraction of the second -hand housing market in Shenzhen is weakening.

New housing limited price advantages, low cost advantages (low tax costs), units design advantages, and equalization policies for education, the "degree advantages" of second -hand housing are lost, and more people will naturally choose to buy new houses. The housing change group also chose to "sell the old and change new". The number of second -hand housing listing is innovative, and the sales will become difficult. The price will fall.

With the price limit of new houses and the price of second -hand housing, the price of the property market is expected to become more and more rational. Faced with the attenuation of real estate wealth effects, the owner of the stock real estate will inevitably choose a good and cost -effective housing product. As a result, the existing real estate (similar to the positioning) will be a new phenomenon in the future property market.

In addition, the "selling old buying new" (including the old buying new house) will continue to iterate. In the early stage, the investors in the Shenzhen property market will accelerate the earlier investment real estate. The number of second -hand housing listings will continue to rise, and the number of new houses will increase rapidly. Further accelerate the listing of second -hand housing (including lease listing).

According to data from the Shenzhen -Housing Association, as of September 1, the four major banks (fun, Shihua, Shell Finding, Central Plains) sold 97,000 houses, compared with 88,000 units on August 1st The number of listings increased by 9,393, an increase of 10.7%month -on -month.

Increased listing volume will accelerate the price recovery of second -hand housing until the price level of the new house is reached at a limited price. In the end, the most important driving force for buying a new house -the inverted price may also become weaker. But it is certain that in the future, Shenzhen will no longer be a city that is short of houses. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)

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Editor in charge: Li Huicong

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