How can the Beixi pipeline "self -rescue" under the soaring gas electrical soaring gas and electricity?

21st Century Business Herald reporter He Liuying reported

Along with the stop supply of "Beixi-1", the Damocaris sword hanging on Europe's head was a little closer.

According to CCTV News, on August 31, local time, Russian Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. has suspended natural gas supply to Europe through the "Beixi-1" channel. Earlier, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. announced that "Beixi-1" will stop gas supply for 3 days from the 31st of this month. This means that the only 20%of the key pipelines of this Russia to transport natural gas to Europe have also been "broken".

In this unseen ending energy game, European gas and electricity prices have repeatedly reached a record high. Last week, the "European Natural Gas Vane" Dutch TTF TTF in recent months stood at a high level of 300 euros/MWh time, which was more than ten times the price of the same period last year. Under the conduction effect, European electricity prices have doubled rapidly. Germany, which is regarded as "European benchmark electricity price", will increase power prices next year to more than 1,000 euros/MWh time on Monday (29th), which is the first time in history.

In the face of such a situation, the European Union must respond. News on August 29 shows that Energy Minister of EU countries will hold an emergency meeting on September 9 to discuss energy issues to discuss how to deal with natural gas and electricity prices. As the news came out and the EU's natural gas storage was obvious, European natural gas and electricity prices have fallen this week. As of press time, the Dutch TTF futures price was reported at 272 euros/MWhm, and the electricity price delivered by Germany next year was hovering above 600 euros/sum hours.

Beixi pipeline "breaks off" again

Beixi's confession and winter are approaching, and European energy anxiety is still spreading.

On August 31, Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. had suspended natural gas supply to Europe through the "Beixi-1" channel. According to the previous statement of Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd., because the only turbine needs to be maintained, "Beixi-1" will be suspended for three days to September 2.

This is the second time "Beixi-1" stopped supply. In mid-July, "Beixi-1" was suspended for ten days due to annual maintenance. At that time, after the maintenance was completed, the Russian side recovered 40%(the level of operation before the maintenance) of natural gas transmission, but then the turbine was then operated by the turbine machine to operate. The impact, the conveying volume was dropped to 20%.

According to market analysis, the dealers are particularly nervous about the maintenance statement issued by Russia this time, and they are worried that the maintenance period will be extended or even completely stopped operations. Wang Yongzhong, director of the International Commodity Research Office of the World Classics Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "From the perspective of the game, I believe that supply will still be restored because this is equivalent to the last card of the Russian side, but it is expected that it is expected to be later The supply of supply will change with the situation of the game, and the possibility of reducing the conversion after re -confession will be reduced. "

It is worth noting that in recent months, due to the reduction of energy supply and high temperature and drought, European natural gas prices have continued to soar. According to the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) data, on the last two trading days (25-26) last week, the receipt price of the Dutch TTF in recent months was above 300 euros/MWh. Goldman Sachs pointed out in a report last week: "In our opinion, the price of natural gas in Europe has exceeded the fundamentals, and it is jointly promoted by supply and demand problems and abnormal market liquidity."

What is worrying is that the price of natural gas in Europe may not be topped. On August 28, Modvedev Vice Chairman of the Russian Federal National Security Commission Association expected the natural gas price at the end of this year to 5,000 euros/a thousand cubic meters (about 485 euros/MWThire). But in Wang Yongzhong's view, "the price expectations given by Medvedev are not based on strict calculations, but more a warning."

Winter is coming, and Europe has also ushered in greater energy tests. The good news is that the European gas storage plan has achieved outstanding results. According to the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Organization (GIE) data, the EU's current natural gas storage facilities have reached 80%, and Germany's filling level has reached 83.6%. The target value of the month -85%storage rate.

Chen Weidong, the president of the Minute Research Institute and the chief researcher of the former China Sea Oil Energy Economic Research Institute, told the 21st Century Business Herald reporter: "Europe's positive 'saving and gas -storage winter' policy has helped it achieve a higher natural gas storage database filling up. Degree, therefore, this time 'Beixi-1' 'will not have a serious impact on Europe. "

On August 31, due to the influence of "qi", the Dutch TTF futures price fluctuated in the recent month, and now reported to 272 euros/MW. In the future trend, Wang Yongzhong believes: "The amount of gas in Europe will rise after winter, but the natural gas supply in Europe is difficult to increase significantly in the short term. Under this supply and demand, the gas price in Europe will still rise. The use of alternative energy, such as coal power, nuclear power, and biomass power generation. If the energy reserves are sufficient, it is a warm winter, and the pressure of gas price will be reduced accordingly. "

Can natural gas and electricity be decoupled?

With the rise of natural gas prices, European electricity prices have also ushered in a record high.

The European Energy Exchange (EEX) data shows that the electricity prices delivered by Germany and France next year will break through the 1,000 euros/MW -time mark on Monday (29th) and last Friday (26th), both in history.

According to the EU official data, 35.6%of the EU's power sources in 2020 came from fossil fuels including coal and natural gas. "In the current power system of Europe, natural gas power generation accounts for an important position, and the high degree of marketization of European power has caused natural gas costs to directly affect electricity prices." Wang Yongzhong said. This also makes European people's energy bills more expensive. On August 26, the British Energy Regulatory Agency (OFGEM) announced that starting from October 1, 2022, the upper limit of the dual fuel energy price of ordinary families will increase to 3549 pounds (about RMB 28,730) per year, and the original £ 1971 Compared with 80%.

OFGEM CEO Jonathan Brearley admits: "This price increase will have a huge impact on British families, and consumers will have to make difficult decisions now."

Under the actual situation of gas and electricity, the EU cannot be safe. On August 29, German Prime Minister Tsurtz met with the Czech Prime Minister Fiara in Prague. The two announced after the meeting that the European Union will take measures to deal with rising electricity prices. At the same time, Fiara announced that it would hold a special meeting of the EU Energy Minister in Brussels on September 9. According to reports, deciring the calculation of electricity prices with the calculation of natural gas may be one of the measures.

The Chairman of the European Commission Feng Delin said that the European Union hopes to restrict power prices in the short term and cut off the connection between natural gas and electricity prices in the long run. No longer dominant electricity prices. "

Wang Yongzhong said: "In terms of intervention mechanisms, the government can adjust the upper limit of the electricity price. In the process, it may cause certain operating pressure on the power company, but the government can also support it through subsidies; on the other hand, it can also use adjustments to adjust the adjustment of adjustments. The power generation structure decreases the share of natural gas power generation to moderately increase the proportion of coal power and nuclear power. "

Chen Weidong believes, "The government's control of energy prices, and even some regions to implement energy distribution are one of the strategies for the EU to respond to the current energy crisis." He pointed out that the market's response to Feng Delin's discourse is a sharp decline in gas prices, reflecting the market believes that the market believes The EU has the ability to deal with the current energy crisis.

However, in the view of Lin Boqiang, the dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, it is not easy to decide with natural gas in the short term. "From the current point of view, the proportion of natural gas power generation is still very high. If you want to reduce the share of natural gas to a relatively low position, a series of actions such as coal power and nuclear power may need to be restarted. This process does not happen overnight." The reporter said.

Rescue the enterprise, save energy, and import themselves busy imports

In response to this energy crisis, the EU organizations and governments of various countries are too busy.

Earlier, in order to help Germany's natural gas importers and UNIPER SE, one of Europe's largest public institutional companies, the German State -owned Bank of Germany Fuxing Credit Credit Bank (KFW) provided it with a credit limit of 9 billion euros. In July, the German federal government subscribed 30%of the company's equity for 267 million euros.

Judging from the financial report data, Uniper's operating conditions are indeed bleak. In the first half of this year, the company's net loss reached 12.3 billion euros. The main reason was that after the decrease in Russian gas, the company had to purchase natural gas at a higher price. Recently, Uniper SE once again "for help" from the government, hoping to expand the credit quota of 4 billion euros to 13 billion euros. This also shows that the "erosion" caused by this crisis to European energy companies is still continuing.

In addition, in order to pass the winter, EU member states reached an agreement in July that this winter decreased by 15%of natural gas. At the same time, the exemption mechanism has been determined, that is, member states that do not interconnect with other member states are not forced to reduce the need to reduce natural gas demand. Members who are not synchronized with the European power system and the European power system can also obtain exemption. Power supply crisis. However, it is worth noting whether the restrictions of natural gas will have an impact on factory production.

At the same time, Europe has continued to broaden energy import channels in recent months. Including the import volume of natural gas from supplying countries such as Norway, the European Union and Azerbaijan signed the "Memorandum of Strategic Partnership in the Energy Field", which stipulates that the Afghanistan increases the natural gas supply to the EU year by year; Wait.

Lin Boqiang believes: "At present, the energy crisis has affected the global supply pattern. If the" Beixi-1 'and other pipelines are eventually abandoned, it means that the future natural gas transportation will be converted to ship transportation or new pipelines need to be built. A lot of investment is needed, but the European Union is preparing for this. "It is reported that the German government has rented 4 floating LNG receiving stations, and the first two temporary receiving stations will be opened at the end of this year.

The focus of the market today is whether the upcoming Special Meeting of EU Energy Minister can release more "self -rescue" signals?

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