Interview with Lin Boqiang: Shanghai Energy Supply and Demand Middle and Long -term Pressure needs to be increased outside the city's renewable energy introduction

21st Century Business Herald Reporter Li Mingming Beijing report

Recently, many local governments including Shanghai, Hainan, and Jilin have announced the implementation plan and related opinions, planning and other "roadmaps" such as carbon peaks.

The 21st Century Economic Herald reporters found that since the beginning of this year, the implementation plan of the local carbon peaks has continued. Shaanxi Province proposed that by 2030, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power generation has reached 80 million kilowatts. System, Sichuan Province has determined 17 pilots of nearly zero carbon emissions parks.

Which regions may be the first to achieve carbon peaks? At present, the pilot of nearly zero carbon emissions parks is being built in many places across the country. What role does the "double carbon" goal achieve? In terms of the construction of new power systems, what do you need to pay attention to?

Lin Boqiang, the dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, said in an exclusive interview with the 21st Century Business Herald that overall, the economically developed provinces will achieve carbon peaks as soon as possible. Change changes. Shanghai Electric Power depends largely in other provinces and cities, and the carbon peak in the power field is a very important part of Shanghai Carbon Peak. On the other hand, Shanghai needs to reduce coal consumption and provide guidelines and directions for the transformation of the energy structure through the formulation of carbon peak implementation plans in the energy and power field.

Realizing carbon peaks in economics and developed provinces is the general trend

21st century: Recently, many local governments, including Hainan, announced the implementation plan of carbon peaks intensively. Jilin proposed to achieve carbon peaks in 2030, and many regions proposed to achieve in 2025. Why is there any time in time? Which regions may be the first to achieve carbon peaks?

Lin Boqiang: There are three main factors that determine the speed of carbon peak in a region, which are the level of economic development, energy structure, and leadership. Due to the different resource endowment and development level of China's major economic zones, the main influencing factors of carbon emissions in each region are also large. The implementation of a one -size -fits -all policy hinders the socio -economic development of some developed areas. According to the local economic development conditions, energy structure, and industrial structure foundation, various places propose differentiated carbon peak time solutions, which is more reasonable.

Generally speaking, the developed provinces will achieve carbon peaks as soon as possible, which is a general trend. But in the end, the actual situation will also change according to the development of various places. Generally speaking, according to cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other cities will relatively realize the carbon peaks first. These cities themselves do not discharge much, which is easier to achieve carbon peaks. Cities such as Yichun, Fushun, Hohhot, Tianshui and other cities will also achieve carbon peaks earlier.

At this stage, energy structure adjustment is stable oil, gas, and coal reduction

In the 21st century: What do you think about the adjustment of the carbon peak schemes recently released this year, and the adjustment of the energy structure and industrial structure?

Lin Boqiang: Regarding the adjustment of energy structure and limited by special resource endowment conditions, China has formed a coal -based energy consumption structure in the process of long -term development. Although in the past 10 years, coal has accounted for an average of about 1%per year in the first energy consumption structure, but because the proportion of coal consumption is still very high, the position of coal as the main energy in the short period is still unable to be shaken.

Therefore, at this stage, the basic direction of China's energy structure adjustment should be stable oil, qi, coal reduction, and large -scale development of new energy. Judging from the carbon Dafeng plan in various places, according to its own resource endowment and economic development, the target tasks of energy structure adjustment are proposed.

However, the problem that must be noted is: First of all, in the short term, although the use of wind power and photovoltaic hours will still rise, the number of hours of use is not very high. Therefore, the growth rate of the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic cannot have a great impact on low -carbon transformation. Secondly, it is necessary to correctly understand the different connotations of China's energy security in different periods in the process of carbon neutrality. At present, the energy structure is mainly coal. In general, as long as the coal is not a problem, the energy supply can be basically guaranteed. In the middle and long term, when the proportion of wind and light in the energy system is very high, energy safety will mainly reflect the safety and stable supply of the energy system. Essence Then, the energy transformation needs to be deployed from both ends of the supply and demand. On the one hand, the supply side should start with clean energy. Although the aircraft and photovoltaic aircraft are more than 24%, the power generation only accounts for about 9%. Therefore, in the short period of time, it is also necessary to work on the demand side. As a systematic project, the production side and consumer side must be a two -pronged approach. From the consumer side, energy and power consumption must be controlled in a relatively low range.

Regarding the adjustment of industrial structure, we must first speed up the construction of a clean and low -carbon energy system. The adjustment of industrial structure is also the key to achieving economic development kinetic energy conversion and green transformation. In the process of achieving "carbon neutrality", the high -quality development of the economy requires that the GDP is "doubled" as much as possible, that is, the decoupling of GDP and fossil energy, and the increase in demand for energy power. If economic growth is still accompanied by high demand for energy and power, it is not conducive to carbon emission reduction and energy structure adjustment.

Secondly, due to the urgency of the climate, the next industrial revolution will focus on low -carbon transformation, and it will give birth to a large number of industrial opportunities on consumer and production side. The adjustment of industrial structure has two meanings. One is the traditional three -industrial change, and the other is consciously cultivating low -energy industries. At present, China's energy consumption is mainly concentrated in industry (68%), especially high -energy consumption industries (up to 50%). It is necessary to curb the energy consumption of industrial consumption, especially high energy consumption through industrial structure adjustment. In addition, the global competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry has benefited from mature, complete and efficient industrial chain. Therefore, the process of industrial structure adjustment should focus on the modernization, intelligence and cleaning of the manufacturing industry chain. The government's industrial adjustment policy and industrial planning layout should respond to the requirements of the high -quality development of the economy, encourage the development of advanced manufacturing and high -tech industries with competitive development, prioritize low -value industries with high value -added high pollution, realize production capacity upgrades and economy New kinetic energy transformation.

Shanghai Electric Power should adjust its own energy structure

21st century: On August 11, the "Implementation Plan for Carbon and Energy in the Energy and Electric Power in Shanghai" was issued. The plan proposes that by 2030, the modern energy system and new power system of clean low -carbon safe and efficient are initially established. Why did Shanghai propose such a detailed power field carbon peak plan after publishing the carbon peak plan? What suggestions do you have?

Lin Boqiang: On the one hand, electricity is the main form of energy consumption. Shanghai power relies largely to other provinces and cities. Carbon peaks in the power field are very important parts of Shanghai Carbon Peak. At present, the proportion of carbon dioxide emissions generated by traditional fossil energy power generation accounted for more than 40 % of the total carbon emissions in Shanghai. In 2020, Shanghai Consumption Power was 157.6 billion kWh, accounting for 2%of the country's total. Shanghai local production was 86.4 billion kWh, and nets were transferred to 71.2 billion kWh in foreign countries, accounting for about 45%. The realization of carbon -to -peaks in Shanghai cannot blindly depend on purchasing power. Transfer of pollution is not a solution. Shanghai should start with adjusting its own energy structure.

On the other hand, Shanghai needs to reduce carbon emissions in the fields of transportation and construction, and provide guidelines and directions for the transformation of the energy structure in the energy power structure by formulating the carbon peak implementation plan in the energy and power field. Shanghai is the largest economic center in China. It has the role of a pioneer in implementing the "double carbon" target work of 2030 and carbon neutralized in 2060. Especially in Shanghai, a super -volume city, its energy green and low -carbon transformation is more complicated and the situation is relatively severe. In order to ensure the power supply of oversized cities, Shanghai's energy transformation must not only develop local energy resources, but also increase the introduction of renewable energy outside the city. For example, the strong development of renewable energy proposed in the plan, promoting the construction of new power systems, and ensuring the safety of energy supply are the basic work of Shanghai's "double carbon" goal.

Shanghai energy supply and demand is huge from the perspective of medium- and long -term perspective. The lack of resources in Shanghai, no hydropower and pumping storage, lack of nuclear power plant resources, and a limited number of new scale in photovoltaic power generation due to narrow regions. As a city with a relatively lack of new energy resource reserves, Shanghai still needs to achieve the goal of reducing carbon reduction by introducing a large number of external electricity in the future. In the energy demand side, the industrial and construction industries need energy -saving technology, and the transportation and service industries need to reduce emission reduction technology. On the energy supply side, carbon neutrality is needed to realize the power field, and then carbon neutrality in the non -electrical field is formed. With its technology, resources, and talent advantages, Shanghai should focus on energy -saving technology, emission reduction technology and clean power technology, and use the technological progress of energy power as an important choice for its carbon peak carbon neutrality.

Nearly zero carbonization in the industrial park is the key to realizing the "double carbon" in the region

21st century: Recently, Sichuan Province has determined 17 pilots in nearly zero -zero -carbon emissions parks. At present, nearly zero -carbon emissions park pilots are constructed in many places in the country. What role does the "double carbon" goal achieve? Why do you advocate vigorously?

Lin Boqiang: Nearly zero carbon emissions parks are a new model of green low -carbon, sustainable and high -quality development in the park in the new situation of carbon peaks and carbon carbon, and control the total guidance of the total amount of carbon emission and strength.

To achieve low -carbon or near zero -carbonization of industrial parks is the key to realizing regional carbon peak carbon neutrality and target tasks. The reason why local governments are scrambling to carry out near -zero carbon emissions parks, mainly because the industrial park has now become a hard bone of my country's "double carbon" goal. Studies have shown that carbon emissions in 2543 industrial parks across the country account for 31%. Near -zero -carbon emissions park is a new form of green and low -carbon development in the park. Each park focuses on the work mechanism, business environment, scientific and technological support, investment financing, data quality, talent team, propaganda guidance and other elements to clarify the carbon emission governance system and governance capacity The modernization direction and path can provide valuable experience for achieving nearly zero carbon emissions.

- END -