International Observation 丨 Russia and Europe "fighting qi" upgrade European difficulty in Europe

Russia's Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd. (Russia) said on the 2nd that due to the failure of multiple equipment, the "Beixi-1" natural gas pipeline will completely stop the gas transmission until the failure is eliminated. Russia has suspended from the 1st to provide natural gas from the main energy supplier of France.

Analysts pointed out that this situation has made the prospects of European countries facing the "qi shortage" worry. The price of natural gas may continue to rise, push up inflation, drag the economy, and exacerbate people's livelihood.

This is a natural gas treatment station taken in Varu Village, Constantan, Romania, June 28. (Shin of Xinhua News Agency, Photo by Christel)

The anxiety of soaring gas prices and declines show all showing

Russia and Europe's "fighting gas" game upgrades, and the uncertainty of the European energy market will increase, which will lead to reorganization of the supply and demand structure of the global energy market. Although Europe has recently worked hard to make its natural gas import sources diversified and "consumes clothing and shrink" in natural gas consumption, the effect is very small. For Europe, the price of natural gas has soared to a historical high before, and Russia's suspension of gas transmission will undoubtedly exacerbate the European energy crisis and increase the market's concerns about the economic recession of the European Union.

Fitch rating believes that due to the lack of short -term alternatives, under the impact of Russia's natural gas import interruption, Europe may have economic recession, and companies will be greatly affected by rising energy costs. Fitch rating predicts that if Russia fully close the natural gas export of European pipelines, it may lead to decline in the European economy from the second half of this year. GDP in Germany and Italy will shrink in 2023.

French Economic and Financial Minister Lemer said on the 1st that if Russia's natural gas supply is completely cut off, French economic growth may face major challenges. Natural gas will be one of the decisive factor in French economic growth in 2023.

Natural gas supply required for industrial operations in many countries will be affected, of which Germany is the most significant. If the large -scale industrial gas is affected, the related industries may fall into a pause, which will directly drag the EU economy to the edge of recession.

According to a survey of economists from August 29 to September 1st, the German economy may shrink from this quarter for three consecutive quarters. If the German economy falls into decline, it will bring a chain reaction to the entire Europe.

On August 2, customers bought food in a bakery in Frankfurt, Germany. (Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Shan Weiyi)

Inflates of high -purpose people's livelihood intensified

The preliminary statistics released by the European Union Statistics on August 31 showed that the energy and food prices of the euro zone continued to soar. The inflation rate in August was 9.1%at an annual rate, exceeding market expectations, and reached a record high. The continuous rise of the core inflation rate of the euro zone is highlighting the continuous spread of price pressure.

Economists predict that as Russia suspends natural gas to Europe, the inflation rate of the euro zone has not yet touched.

The French government has previously frozen the price of natural gas control at the level of October 2021 until the end of this year. However, French Prime Minister Borne recently said that the government cannot freeze the price forever. Many media are worried that the price of French energy may rise sharply at the beginning of next year, which will increase inflation and increase the risk of social turmoil.

A few days ago, a survey showed that in the investigation, the cost of living in France, Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom has become the most concerned issue for Europeans. Many Europeans worry that the high inflation caused by the current energy crisis may cause social turmoil, protest and strike.

This is the office building of the Russian Natural Gas Industry Co., Ltd., which was shot in Moscow, the capital of Russia on April 28. (Xinhua News Agency, Alexander Photo)

It is difficult to find the worries of "qi"

EU gas storage facilities have now achieved 80%of gas storage targets. If the storage facilities are filled to the maximum extent, the risk of the current energy crisis may be reduced. However, as Russia's supply is interrupted and other replacement gas sources cannot be made up quickly, weather this winter will become the key to the European energy crisis.

Jacob Mandel, a senior assistant assistant assistant to a British consulting company, said that if the EU fully fills its gas storage facilities before winter, these reserves can ensure about three months of use in the best case. However, if natural gas imports cannot keep up, the threat of the shortage of natural gas in Europe still exists, and low temperature weather such as cold currents may quickly exhaust inventory.

The huge natural gas gap in Europe has caused it to seek new liquefied natural gas suppliers from the international market.

As far as Europe itself is concerned, receiving liquefied natural gas requires specific receiving stations, and these infrastructure construction is difficult to complete in the short term. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Norway, as the second major natural gas supply country in Europe, has always taken measures to increase natural gas supply, but its speed of making up for the European natural gas gap is very limited. Therefore, whether it is supply or reception, it is not easy to try to make up for the great lack of Russia's natural gas by replacing the gas source.

Agat Demare, the global forecast of economics think tanks, predicts that Europe will usher in a very difficult winter this year, and will go through a period of adjustment for at least two years. It will also face economic problems caused by factors such as energy shortage.

Reporter: Lin Hao, Chen Wenxian, Liu Fang

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