Forbidden to sell fuel vehicles, why did Hainan start the first shot?
Author:Look at the think tank Time:2022.09.05
On August 27, 2022, the Fourth World New Energy Vehicle Conference officially opened. This conference was carried out at the same time online and offline in Beijing and Hainan.
It is worth noting that Hainan, one of the hosts of this conference, just released the "Implementation Plan for Hainan Carbon Dafeng" a few days ago (hereinafter referred to as the "Plan"). Fuel cars.
In fact, recently, the automotive industry and the whole society have conducted fierce discussions on the full -scale ban on the sale of fuel vehicles. There are many in favor and the opponents.
So, is it ready to start Hainan, the first shot of fuel vehicles?
Wen | Zhao Yue
This article is reproduced from the WeChat public account "China News Weekly" (ID: chinanewsweekly). The original first released on August 30, 2022. The original title was "The first shot of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, why is it Hainan? ", Does not mean looking at the view of the think tank.
1
Why is Hainan?
At the fourth World New Energy Vehicle Conference just held, Zhu Huarong, chairman of Changan Automobile, suggested that my country ’s suspension of fuel cars on the suspension of China will be put on the agenda. Zhu Huarong believes that China's automobile industry has initially possessed the basic conditions for suspending fuel vehicles. It is recommended that relevant national ministries and commissions and industries and industries to clearly study the period of traditional fuel vehicles and guide enterprises and the whole society to transform new energy in an orderly manner.
In April of this year, the domestic brand BYD announced that the production of fuel vehicles will be suspended from March 2022. In August, the Haval brand of Great Wall Motors announced that the sales of new energy vehicles in 2025 will reach 80%, and the official suspension of fuel vehicles will be officially suspended in 2030 in 2030. Essence
In Mo Ke, an expert in the lithium -battery research industry and chief analyst of Zhezhe Lithium Research, at present, domestic engines that urgently need new economic growth, new energy vehicles are very good directions and can take on such roles.
Specific to Hainan, the reason why it became the first local government in the country to introduce relevant policies was not a moment.
As early as April 2018, at the Boao Asia Forum 2018 Annual Conference "21st Century Maritime Silk Road Island Economy" sub -forum, then the governor of Hainan Province Shen Xiaoming (current secretary of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee) stated that the Hainan Provincial Government will be A plan for new energy vehicles was introduced to use new energy vehicles in the whole island in 2030.
Soon after, the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting Hainan's Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and opening up" issued by Hainan pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles and energy conservation and environmental protection vehicles, and gradually ban the sale of fuel vehicles on Hainan Island.
The action of Hainan's promotion is far more than that of fuel vehicles. The above -mentioned "Plan" pointed out that by 2025, the proportion of clean energy in Hainan's public services and social operation areas will be added and replaced by vehicles, and the proportion of non -fossil energy consumption will increase to more than 22%. The proportion of renewable energy consumption will reach 10 10 %above.
The four seasons are considered a natural advantage of Hainan's promotion of new energy vehicles. "The most suitable temperature for electric vehicles is 0 ° C-25 ° C, which is lower than 0 ° C. The actual battery life will indeed be shorter." Mo Ke said.
Mo Ke said that compared with the cold air conditioner, the warm air conditioner has a greater impact on the battery power, so the phenomenon of electric vehicles will be faster in winter.
From the perspective of Beijing's situation, the reporter learned from a number of online car drivers driving a new energy vehicle that a variety of models of electric vehicles have faster power in winter. "If the actual battery life of the car is 300-350 kilometers, it can run so far in summer, but it can only run about 200 kilometers in winter." A online car driver said.
In addition to climatic conditions, Hainan as an island also has a unique geographical advantage.
At present, the main mileage of the main line of tourist roads in Hainan under construction is 988.2 kilometers, which runs through 12 cities and counties and Yangpu Economic Development Zone of Haikou, Qionghai, Sanya. The classic route of self -driving routes in Hainan is generally about 600 kilometers.
At present, the battery life of a number of mainstream electric vehicles including Tesla, BYD, Weilai, etc. has claimed that it can reach 600 kilometers to 700 kilometers.
Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary -general of the China Automobile Industry Association, believes that the country's plan will be half of the new energy vehicle sales by 2030, and the remaining parts are also new fuel vehicles with hybrid power.
"Theoretically, as an island, Hainan is the first to implement the above -mentioned low -carbon development plan, which is in line with the current trend." He told reporters.
According to data from the Hainan Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, in the first half of this year, Hainan promoted and applied 38,100 new energy vehicles to complete 76.28%of the annual promotional task progress (50,000 vehicles), an increase of 133%year -on -year; new energy vehicles were newly added in new energy vehicles. The proportion of vehicles accounted for 37.93%, which was 18 percentage points higher than the national average.
As of the end of June this year, Hainan Province's new energy vehicle ownership has reached 159,000, accounting for 8.91%of the car ownership, which is 5.7 percentage points higher than the national average. two.
In 2021, the growth rate of new energy vehicles in Hainan Province reached 91%, ranking first in provinces across the country.
2
"It's too late"
"With the current maturity of new energy models, how much guarantee is the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles? In addition, there are infrastructure construction issues." Talking about Hainan's future ban on fuel vehicles, the nationwide passenger car market information joint meeting Secretary -General Cui Dongshu told reporters. As a pioneer area for the national new energy vehicle test, Hainan's problems must be generally faced in other parts of the country, and the problems of infrastructure are the first.
Recently, the national support for charging piles is overweight. On August 25, the Ministry of Transport and the National Energy Administration, the State Grid, and Southern Power Grid jointly issued the "Action Plan for Accelerating the Construction of Charging Infrastructure along the Highway" and mentioned that it will strive to be a normal country and provincial trunk line with conditions by the end of 2023. Highway service area (station) can provide basic charging services.
However, in Mo Ke's view, there are still serious lack of charging piles and other facilities in various regions in the country.
"The result of our recent investigations is that many charging pile profits are too low, so the enthusiasm of the enterprise is not high. If in the prosperous area of the city's core, the cost of land rent is too high; in the road along the road, the land rent is low and the traffic flow is not enough." Mo Ke admitted.
Under the limited charging pile, many new energy car owners even joked "charging for 1 hour and queuing for 4 hours".
Mo Ke believes that since Hainan is to be the first province in the country to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, it is necessary to focus on the charging pile industry.
For a long time, the charging pile has been in a problem.
"Consumers have higher and higher requirements for fast charging, so the transformation of power grid facilities is a big problem. At present, the new community grids are already well -equipped, and high voltage can be provided. Big, it can even be said that it is not realistic, because the cost is too high. "Mo Ke said.
It is understood that many old districts in Hainan have a high cost of fire safety facilities in the installation of parking spaces in community parking spaces due to small local local communities, with high subjects involving interests, coordination and other issues. The charging piles have been greatly restricted.
Hainan Power Grid is also trying to solve related issues. The relevant person in charge of the company told the media that in response to the problem of insufficient load load of power supply systems and incrementing costs for old communities, no one should be carried out to households. Optimize and increase the power supply equipment in the community, the cost shall be borne by the power supply department.
However, there are still many communities that have not been implemented in the local area. "Hainan Power Grid Corporation has cooperated with the charging pile installation enterprise to carry out the power facilities of the power facilities." The person in charge said.
From the perspective of Shi Jianhua, as a province, with the promotion and support of the local government, and the cooperation of all parties, the infrastructure is fully constructed. At the time of the 2030 ban on the sale of fuel vehicles, it is completely too late.
3
In the end, you have to rely on the market
As of the end of June, the number of new energy vehicles in the country reached 101 million, accounting for 3.23%of the total vehicle. Among them, pure electric vehicles have 810,400 vehicles, accounting for 80.93%of the total new energy vehicles.
Data show that in the first half of this year, the newly registered new energy vehicle was 2.209 million, an increase of 100.26%compared with the new registration volume in the first half of last year, a record high.
However, compared to the 312 million vehicles in the country, the proportion of new energy vehicles is relatively low and the space is still large.
Outside Hainan, many local governments have recently introduced policies to promote the development of new energy vehicles.
For example, in November 2021, Shandong launched a new round of "four decreases and four increases" operation. The above actions stipulated that during the emergency response of severe pollution weather, the whole society used the National Fifth and above emissions or new energy vehicles to transport.
In May 2022, a notice of Beijing printed and issued the "Traffic Development and Construction Plan for the" Fourteenth Five -Year Period "period in Beijing" showed that in the "Fourteenth Five -Year Plan" period, it applied for a truck pass, and logistics distribution below 4.5 tons (excluding hazardous chemical transport vehicles Cold chain transportation vehicles) 100%is new energy vehicles.
Mo Ke believes that more and more local governments will introduce strategies to promote the development of new energy vehicles in the future. "There should be a local government that has been introduced to sell fuel vehicles. It may not be a provincial administrative unit like Hainan Province, and it is more likely to be a city to formulate relevant goals within the corresponding jurisdiction." Mo Ke predicted.
It is worth mentioning that in the past year, new energy vehicles and upstream and downstream industrial chains have undergone severe tests.
Compared with infrastructure construction, many industry experts pay more attention to the development and problems of new energy vehicles itself.
"Consumers buy new energy vehicles, in fact, pay more attention to safety, price, and delivery duration." Shi Jianhua said.
Although it is a large lithium resource country, due to the low overall quality of lithium ore in my country and difficulty in mining, most of the industrial lithium in my country still depends on imports.
Data show that in terms of import prices, in July 2022, the average price of lithium carbonate in my country was US $ 62,498/ton, an increase of 878%year -on -year. Among them, the average price of lithium carbonate imported by Chile was US $ 67,466/ton, an average price increased by 2%from June.
This directly affects the cost of lithium batteries and the cost of new energy vehicles. Recently, many mainstream electric vehicles including Tesla, BYD, Xiaopeng, etc., ushered in the wave of price increases.
Shi Jianhua believes that the promotion of new energy vehicles in the future will not only rely on regional policy pilots, but also rely on whether it can solve the problem of anxiety in the current industry, and whether it can adapt to the objective laws of industrial development, because it is impossible to rely on administrative promotion for a long time. In the end Still rely on the power of the market. "More importantly, can the new energy vehicle industry completely solve the problems existing in the development process around 2030, including chip shorts, high battery materials costs, battery stability, battery life attenuation, battery high temperature and low temperature applicable applications. Sexual issues, "Shi Jianhua said.
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