The Seven Kingdoms Group affects geometry on the "price limit" of Russia's oil

The US Finance Minister Yellen recently issued a statement saying that the Seven Kingdoms Group has reached an agreement on Russian oil prices, and it is expected that the specific implementation plan to finalize the price limit in the next few weeks. The Seven Kingdoms Group will seek to establish a wider alliance, urging all countries to promise to import Russian oil at a time limit without higher price limit.

The logic of the West in the United States is to force Russia to sell oil at low prices, so that it can no longer afford the cost of maintaining the Russian -Ukraine conflict. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Peskov responded that this plan that will lead to serious and unstable oil markets will be "ridiculous". If the country is not friendly to truly implement the plan, Russia will begin to supply fuel to countries operating in accordance with the laws of the market. Director of the Institute of Global Security Analysis of Washington also believes that the idea of ​​restricting Russian oil prices is "quite funny". Europeans and Americans talk about let Russia sell oil at $ 40 per barrel, but as a result, international oil prices will be seen to rise to $ 140 per barrel, "You cannot challenge the supply and demand law of the oil market."

For more than half a year since the Russian -Ukraine conflict, there were no less than Russia's oil, natural gas and coal for the United States and West, including the Seven Kingdoms Group. The United States and Canada have refused to purchase Russian oil since spring. Britain has completely stopped importing Russian oil and natural gas in June, while Japan and Germany, France and Italy have greatly reduced Russian oil imports. On May 30, the European Union announced that it would prohibit Russian oil and petroleum products from transporting tankers from December this year. However, the actual effects disappointed the supporters. Since February, Russia's fossil fuel export revenue including oil, coal and natural gas has reached 158 billion euros. At the same time, Russia's frequent account surplus in January to July this year is as high as 167 billion US dollars, which is 3.34 times the same period last year. It is expected to reach a record high throughout the year. Although the export volume of Russian fossils has declined, the income is much higher than the previous years, because the average fossil fuel price this year is more than twice the same period of 2021.

According to the concept of the upper limit of the price of the Seven Kingdoms Group, the price of oil per barrel sold by Russia will be limited to between 40 and $ 70, which is much cheaper than the market price. However, Russia will not wait. On the one hand, Russia will completely cut off crude oil supply to non -friendly countries for at least a period of time. Although this move will not cause the global energy market to collapse, international oil prices may soar to $ 140 to 160 per barrel in a short time, and eventually stabilize at a high of about $ 120 per barrel. On the other hand, Russia can adopt "asymmetric combat" to use the "natural gas weapons" as Europeans call. At present, Europe has opened all underground storage facilities. But the question is, where do they get gas? Which pipeline is taken from? In winter, Europeans will have to use natural gas reserve, and the inventory of natural gas will quickly decrease. As a result, it is likely that the price of natural gas futures has soared to $ 10,000 per thousand cubic meters in the panic wave. After the postscript, the West, the West, and the European countries, had to think twice.

In fact, the Seventh Kingdom Group accounted for only about 45%of the global GDP, a decrease of 70%from 30 years ago, and it was impossible to cover the sky in the international oil market. Even the authoritative analysts in the United States believe that the Western world overestimates its strength. Lover pointed out: "This is like in a bar. My friend and I asked the boss to restrict the price of beer. The boss said he would not sell beer to us. We are very happy to sit here. We have observed that the bar is full, and everyone has drank a lot of beer. At this time, we have a question: What should we do next? "

Many countries such as China, India, and Indonesia do not support the United States and the West to Russia, and oppose further restrictions and embargo. Kazimetidis, the president of the United States Petroleum Giant and the president of the United Oil Refining Corporation, said, "Everything we have done to the Russians has become a comic and does not work." First of all, India and China do not support the plans of the Seven Kingdoms Group. Russia has replaced Saudi Arabia and has become India's second largest oil supply country. India still resold Russia to the West at a considerable price. According to the International Energy Agency, Russia's exports to the United States, Britain, the European Union, Japan, and South Korea in July fell 2.2 million barrels per day, but 2/3 of them were transferred to other countries such as China and India. At the same time, American businessmen are cleverly bypassing sanctions to actively purchase Russian oil. Even the Wall Street Journal had to admit that U.S. oil traders violated the wishes of the US State Department, concealed the source of Russian oil and shipped it to the United States.

Experts from the "Energy Intelligence" of the US analysis agency predict that global oil demand in 2022 will increase by 2.3 million barrels per day, which is slightly higher than the forecast of the International Energy Agency and the US Energy Information Agency. The stagnation of drilling and investment activities in the US oil industry, as well as OPEC countries, is still unwilling to increase production under the background of Russia's oil suppression, which may push oil prices to more than $ 120 per barrel. The idea of ​​setting up the price limit for Russian oil for the United States and its allies may lead to the instability of the entire market. If oil trading owners can buy Russian oil at a price of $ 60 per barrel, why should it be purchased at a high price elsewhere; similarly, since it is possible to buy cheap Russian oil, why continue to invest in expanding oil production? Kazdamedis said that the Bayeng government promoted the "green economy" characterized by suppressing oil and natural gas consumption, so that the US strategic oil reserves fell to the lowest point of history. Petroleum struggle. " Poorovalov, Dean of the School of Political Political Science, predicts that any intervention in the global energy market will lead to rising oil prices. When the world economy comes out of stagnation and starts to accelerate, oil prices will skyrocket. No need to stop them from committing suicide. "

(Our newspaper Moscow, September 7th.

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