The component price does not fall, the photovoltaic passion does not stop

Will this round of photovoltaic passion continue?

Where is the latest focus? This round of photovoltaic prosperity cycle, from the technology iteration of the supply side to the expansion of the scene of demand; from the sharp fluctuations to the fast production capacity, many hotspots continue to contribute passion.

However, terminal demand has not performed carefully, especially for centralized power stations. In recent years, affected by the cost factors such as silicon materials, the price of components has not declined, and it has become the primary factor restricting downstream demand monetization.

At the same time, the expectations of component prices and the release of terminal demand are constantly ignited, becoming a new expectation of the photovoltaic industry to maintain enthusiasm.

It is expected that it will not be fulfilled for a day, and the passion will rest in one day.

Motor price restriction requirements performance

Since last year, the photovoltaic industry has become popular in the "carbon neutralization" wave, the capital is turbulent, the expected explosion is expected, and the price of manufacturing has risen sharply, which has severely restricted the demand for downstream installation.

In 2021, the global and domestic photovoltaic installations were not as expected by the rising price of photovoltaic components. Global photovoltaic installations increased by 30%year -on -year. The growth rate of domestic photovoltaic installation machines was only 14%. Better photovoltaic for better households.

In the first half of this year, the price of the industrial chain was slightly stable, and the photovoltaic installation machine recovered.

From January to June 2022, the domestic photovoltaic installation machine was 30.88GW, a year-on-year increase of 137%, of which 11.22GW of centralized photovoltaic photovoltaic, a year-on-year increase of 109%; distributed photovoltaic 19.65GW, an increase of 157%year-on-year.

In addition, overseas is expected to be expected to be in the Russian and U-wars and energy crisis. The demand for photovoltaic installations is strong. From January to June 2022, my country's components exported 78.6GW, an increase of 74%year-on-year.

However, the demand has risen slightly, the industrial chain is immediately upgraded, the upstream prices have risen, and the component prices have not risen.

At present, some components are quoted more than 2.0 yuan/W, and the investment yield of power stations has touched the bottom line. The terminal installation demand ushered in the wait -and -see, and the growth rate of component exports has also slowed down.

The price of components above 2.0 yuan/W has not been able to block the demand for downstream parts. Higher price tolerance and high yield tolerance also illustrate the strong potential needs of photovoltaic downstream on the side.

The potential of photovoltaic recovery has been curbed again, and the industry has once again fell into stagnation.

Terminal demand situation is still unclear

The sea of ​​photovoltaic demand is the hope of the photovoltaic industry.

Today, short -term demand has been suppressed due to high upstream prices, and demand release has been repeatedly delayed. At present, it is still difficult to judge the time list of demand to accelerate release.

On the one hand, the expectations of the decline in silicon material have repeatedly delayed, and recently hit a new high, and the transaction price of single crystal to the tightly material has exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton. Although the new production capacity of silicon materials is continuously released, due to the epidemic, electricity restrictions, maintenance and other factors, and the cruel industrial chain game, the bull ear of the photovoltaic industry in the photovoltaic industry in recent years has performed "cunning". "The potential of the future will not be flat.

In addition, the preferential price of electricity in some areas has recently been canceled, and the cost of energy consumption has begun to become a new variable of photovoltaic manufacturing costs. This is another new footnote. Perhaps other unpredictable cost variables will suddenly appear, making the fall of component prices uncertain.

On the other hand, this public account has always emphasized that under the new round of photovoltaic industry boom, non -manufacturing costs such as "fancy burden" diversified and complicated. The cost of energy storage supporting costs increased due to the rise in lithium carbonate prices. The direct and indirect costs of power stations investors, the friction costs of photovoltaic power stations have continued to intensify, and it has also become a variable of demand for power stations in the future.

Therefore, the photovoltaic industry still has to continue to face the difficult situation of photovoltaic demand. The major institutions have a large difference in predictions for installations in China and the world today, although the overall expectations are "accelerated to release."

Demand dim continuation of capital enthusiasm

Uncertainty is a good thing for capital.

If there is uncertainty, there is elasticity, there is an opportunity to reshape and overtaking in the industry, and you can also enjoy a higher valuation. Everything was fulfilled, and at a glance, the valuation returned.

In the past few years, the photovoltaic industry has shown a lot of elasticity, especially the flexibility of technical iteration and production capacity supply, and the demand side has not ushered in the release of the demand that matches the supply side of the supply side.

In this process, even if the demand is released, it is enough to excite the entire market. One is the photovoltaic boom of households began last year, and the other is the increase in distributed photovoltaic/energy storage exports this year.

Relatively speaking, as a centralized photovoltaic power plant with the main photovoltaic force, in the past few years in the "carbon neutral" concept, it has always been tepid.

And the delay of good information may further continue the capital passion of the photovoltaic industry.

Although I have been looking forward to it, it has never been satisfied, it will eventually come and eventually be satisfied, but it is difficult to predict the accurate rhythm and timetable.

The elasticity and opportunities of the demand side will also be destined to usher in the strategic opportunity of the component link. No capital will give up, and it is not difficult to understand the competitive pattern of the component link suddenly becomes lively and sensitive at this time point.

In short, the decline of component prices and the release of terminal demand have become the new expectations of the photovoltaic industry. The boots do not fall to the ground one day, and the passion does not dissipate. The price of components is high, perhaps not bad, and it is happy.

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