The first typhoon that may land in East China this year!Expert interpretation of Typhoon No. 12 "Plum Blossom"

CCTV, Beijing, September 14th (Reporter Huang Yuling) On the 14th, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a typhoon orange warning and heavy rain yellow warning at the same time: It is expected to be from the afternoon of the 14th to the night. The coastal area is landing, and the strength is expected to be a typhoon or strong typhoon (38-45 meters/s, level 13-14).

It is expected that in the next three days (14th to 16th), there will be heavy rain to heavy rain in central Zhejiang, most of Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, eastern Anhui, central and eastern Shandong, central Liaoning, southeast of Jilin, and southeast of Jilin. Among them, northern Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Shanghai There are heavy rains in the eastern part of Jiangsu, Shandong Peninsula, and central and eastern Liaoning, and heavy rainstorms in northeast Zhejiang. The cumulative rainfall in the above areas is 50 to 150 millimeters, and the local area can reach more than 350 mm. The main rainfall of Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu was on the 14th, Shandong from 14th to 15th, and Liaoning from the 15th to 16th.

Although the intensity of "plum blossoms" is less than Typhoon Xuan Lannuo No. 11 this year, because it is closer to the coastal coastal of Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu, the impact of typhoon "plum blossoms" will be greater than "Xuanlan Lan Lan promise".

Experts suggest that as the typhoon path continues to adjust the west, the possibility of "plum blossoms" on my country is increasing, and the impact of wind and rain has begun to reveal. The ship should return to the port to avoid the wind, strengthen the port facilities, and prevent the ship's anchor, stranding and collision; stop the outdoor dangerous operations such as large indoor and outdoor rally and high altitude; the public pays attention to the typhoon forecast early warning information in a timely manner, and take precautionary measures in advance.

Typhoon "Plum Blossom" in 2022, the English name "MUIFA", interpreted the strength of the typhoon "plum blossom", the movement path and the impact of the wind and rain in my country, and the chief forecaster of the Central Meteorological Observatory, Dong Lin, interpreted.

"Plum Blossom" will move northwest after landing

The reporter learned that since September 12, due to the "plum blossoms" of typhoons, the cumulative rainfall in northern Zhejiang, Shanghai, southeast of Jiangsu, and central Taiwan is 50 to 150 mm. The land is 200 to 350 mm; the coast of the eastern part of Zhejiang and the northern part of Fujian, the coast of Shanghai, and the southeast coast of Jiangsu appear 7-8 gusts, and the local area is 9 to 10. Among them, yesterday, there were heavy rains in the northern part of Zhejiang, southeastern Jiangsu, and heavy rain or heavy rains in Shaoxing and Ningbo in Zhejiang.

Dong Lin introduced that Plum Blossom is expected to land in the coastal area of ​​Wenling from Zhejiang to Wenling from Zhejiang to the evening of the night. When landing, it is a typhoon or a strong typhoon level, 38 to 45 meters per second, 13 to 14. After landing, plum blossoms will continue to move northwest, and the intensity will gradually weaken.

Dong Lin said that the influence of the strong wind will last until the 16th. It is expected that the eastern waters, the Yangtze River Estuary District, Hangzhou Bay and the northern and eastern coast of Taiwan, the coast of the northern part of Fujian, the coast of Zhejiang, the coast of Shanghai, and the coast of Jiangsu will be 7 to 8 to 8 Grade wind, gusts can reach level 9 to 10. Among them, the wind in the southwestern Yellow Sea, the western and southern parts of the East China Sea, and the coast of Zhejiang, the coast of Shanghai, and the southern parts of Jiangsu, and some waters or regions in the coast of the southern part of Jiangsu are 9 to 12, and the gusts are 11 to 14. The wind of the nearby sea or area passed by the Meihua Center is 13 to 14, and the gusts can reach level 15 to 17.

Experts emphasized that in Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Liaoning and other places, the defense of typhoons should be done, paying attention to the adverse effects of city operations, transportation, tourism, Qinghai breeding, agricultural production, and prevent storm disaster. The flood geological disasters and small and medium rivers that may cause heavy rainfall, the ships sailing in the eastern waters of my country, timely avoid the impact of typhoons and affect the area, and the maritime operators have evacuated in a timely manner. In addition, rainfall is good for Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places to alleviate weather drought, supplement the water storage capacity of river and lake reservoirs and agricultural production water.

It's not "the strongest in history" but the impact cannot be underestimated

Dong Lin told reporters that the typhoon "plum blossoms" mainly have two characteristics: 1. This should be the first typhoon that landed in East China this year. The three typhoons that were logged in before were in South China. But did not log in. Second, the typhoon "plum blossom" has a large intensity, great influence, and the entire wind and rain has a large range of influence.

Dong Lin introduced that due to the influence of this typhoon, the northern part of Taiwan, the central northern part of Zhejiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, eastern Anhui, central Shandong, eastern Liaoning and other places will be as large as heavy rain. Among them, northern Taiwan Island, central Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shanghai There are heavy rains in some areas in central and southern Jiangsu, eastern Shandong, and southeastern Liaoning, and there are heavy rainstorms. The cumulative rainfall in the above areas is 40 to 90 mm. The northern part of Taiwan, northeast Zhejiang, Shanghai, central Jiangsu, eastern Shandong, and southern Liaodong Peninsula can reach 100 to 300 mm, and the northeast of Zhejiang can exceed 400 mm.

The current forecast shows that the typhoon "plum blossom" may stop or rotate near the junction of Su, Henan and Anhui. Dong Lin believes that this possibility is not ruled out, but the forecast has certain uncertainty. It is recommended that relevant departments pay attention to the influence and path forecast in time and adjust preventive measures in a timely manner.

Many netizens speculated about the intensity of typhoon "plum blossoms" that it was the strongest typhoon weather in my country in 66 years. In this regard, Dong Lin gave a negative answer. Dong Lin said that, if the Typhoon Kanu ", No. 0515, landed in Taizhou, Zhejiang in September 2005, the maximum wind of the time when landing reached 50 meters/s, and the intensity was above the typhoon of" Plum Blossom ", so although" plum blossoms " The impact of wind and rain has a strong impact, but it cannot be determined that this "plum blossom" has set the biggest typhoon record in 66 years.

Prior to the formation of the typhoon "Plum Blossom", the previous "Xuan Lannuo", the Typhoon Miao Bai 13, which was on the sea, and the tropical disturbance of the Northwest Pacific. Does Mudu "and so on, indicate that this year's autumn and Taiwan style movement is more abnormal?

In this regard, Dong Lin pointed out that typhoons are divided into active and intermittent periods. Generally speaking, the frequency of typhoon generated before September is low, and the number of login is relatively small, but it is relatively active in autumn. The quantity and number of login are still within the small normal range.

- END -