The price of battery -level lithium carbonate has once again stood up on the historical high upstream and downstream industrial chain?

After a few months, the price of battery -grade lithium carbonate returned to a high of 500,000 yuan/ton.

The price of battery -grade lithium carbonate rose from the beginning of this year to a high level of 500,000 yuan/ton in March. At that time, the market was uproar. After this price shocked for more than a month, until mid -April, the price fell below 500,000 yuan/ton, market sources had argued that the market prospects for lithium carbonate had different opinions on the price trend. However, the price has not fallen too much and has been hovering above 400,000 yuan/ton.

The high influence of high battery -level lithium carbonate prices on upstream and downstream is becoming more and more prominent, and it is also reshaping the entire industrial chain pattern.

As the most critical material for new energy vehicle power batteries, the rise in lithium prices has made the cost of middle and lower reaches higher and higher. Power battery companies and downstream car companies represented by Ningde Times have also fallen into a strange circle of price increases to cope with high -cost pressure.

New energy vehicles have continued high prosperity. Although listed companies are continuously expanded, the contradiction between supply and demand of lithium carbonate is still difficult to solve in the short term, and the industrial chain company has begun to apply its own ability.

In order to get rid of the passive situation of the lack of lithium resources and the rising lithium prices, mid -to -down reaches of Ningde Times, BYD and other midstream and lower reaches have begun to integrate layouts. While adding upstream mines to grab the army, they have deployed downstream power battery recycling.

Many companies and experts interviewed by a reporter from the Securities Daily believe that with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the installed capacity of power batteries continues to increase, which means that lithium carbonate will be in short supply in the short term, and the price will remain high. Faced with high -cost pressure, the layout of integrated industrial chain is becoming a common choice for current power battery companies and car companies.

Will the price of lithium carbonate rise again?

According to the latest data from Shanghai Steel Union, on September 13, the battery -level lithium carbonate rose 2600 yuan/ton, and the average price was 500,000 yuan/ton. This price rose nearly 8 times compared to early 2021, which was nearly 80%compared to the beginning of this year. On September 14, the price of lithium carbonate of battery -level still maintained a price of 500,000 yuan/ton.

In this regard, Qu Yinfei, a lithium industry analyst at the Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that the price of lithium carbonate in supply and demand was increased, and the supply side was reduced in August. Increased the price of the ore ending of the spot market, and various factors supported lithium carbonate prices to return to high.

In an interview with the Securities Daily reporter, Li Shun, the secretary of Yanhu Co., Ltd., said that the main reason for the rise in the price of lithium lithium carbonate is that the entire market supply is out of stock. In addition, the newly added iron phosphate factories in the downstream parts have been completed, and the market's demand for lithium has increased.

"With the advent of the traditional sales season, the prices of lithium carbonate in the industrial chain will rise in advance, and it is expected that these two quarters will be at a high level." Cheng Ling, a lithium of Xindu, told the Securities Daily reporter.

In the context of high demand, listed companies are accelerating the capacity of lithium carbonate.

Salt Lake Co., Ltd. stated on the interactive platform on September 13 that the company has now realized the capacity of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate, and the self -built 40,000 tons of basic lithium salt integrated project has been implemented. It is planned to be put into production in 2024. Lithium carbonate projects are advancing.

On September 14th, Guoxuan Hi -Tech also said when responding to investors that the smelting and processing Duan Guoxuan Kefeng is expected to produce about 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate this year. With the gradual climbing of Kefeng production capacity Gradually increase, costs will continue to decline.

At the same time, Guoxuan Hi -Tech has planned to build a 50,000 -ton lithium carbonate project in Yifeng and Fengxin, and each equipped with 7.5 million tons of lithium cloud mother ore selection projects. In the first quarter of next year, it will also provide strong support for the company's lithium carbonate shipment target next year.

In addition, related listed companies such as Ganfeng Lithium, Tibet Mining, Tianqi Lithium Industry are actively expanding lithium carbonate production capacity.

According to the statistics of Xinxun database, the global lithium carbonate was about 180,000 tons in 2022; the new global lithium carbonate production capacity of lithium carbonate in 2023 was about 400,000 tons.

Cheng Ling believes that, driven by high profits, capitals around the world are working hard to open mining, but the mining cycle of mines will take 3 to 5 years to quantity, and it is still nervous in the short term.

"Lithium carbonate construction requires time, and the supply of resource -end supply affects product capacity utilization, and terminal demand exceeding expectations is the reason for affecting product supply." Qu Yinfei said.

While the supply is tight, demand is still increasing, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles has driven the power battery industry to continue to become hot.

According to the China Automobile Association data, from January to August this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in my country reached 3.97 million and 3.86 million, respectively, an increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times year -on -year, and the market share of new energy vehicles reached 22.9%.

Many market participants expect that the sales of new energy vehicles this year will continue to be innovative, which also means that power batteries and lithium carbonate will be in a high demand state.

According to the data released on September 14th, the Global Power Battery Market installed scale is expected to move from 100 million kilowatt -hours in 2024, and it will exceed 300 million kilowatt -hours in 2030. Among them, the scale of China's power battery installed capacity will be It is expected to occupy about 45%of the world.

In an interview with the Securities Daily reporter, Li Ruixue, the director of Tibet Mining, said that the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to increase. In the second half of the year The sales of new energy vehicles will still show rapid growth, and the demand for lithium is still very strong. Qu Yinfei believes that the price of lithium carbonate will still maintain a high level, and the "gold nine silver ten" and the end -of -year installation period will cause demand to rise. The overall increase in supply is limited, and the demand for rapid rise cannot be matched. The spot market reporting and transaction prices are gradually raising, and the high price is above 500,000 yuan/ton.

What about downstream companies?

The rise in lithium carbonate prices is changing the industrial structure of new energy vehicles and power batteries, while mastering upstream lithium resources has become a consensus of the industry.

The upstream of the lithium battery industry chain is raw materials and lithium battery equipment, the middle reaches are manufactured by lithium batteries, and the downstream is applications of lithium battery. The prices of lithium battery materials that have created a new high have made the development of the industry two extremes: the profit is concentrated upstream and the pressure is transmitted downstream.

This status quo, once made companies that are in different industries "complaining": car companies complained that profits have made battery companies earn away; and battery companies indicate that cost pressure is high and is also working for upstream.

Judging from the data of the half -year report in 2022, Tianqi Lithium Industry and Ganfeng Lithium Industry have doubled the net profit on behalf of lithium salt related listed companies; while the gross profit margin of power battery companies such as Ningde Times and Guoxuan Hi -Tech has fallen sharply, of which Ningde Times The operating costs of power battery systems increased by 186.78%year -on -year; as the lowest downstream, car companies were the worst, and car companies such as Setis, ST Zotyetai were in a loss state.

Relevant sources of BAIC Langu told the Securities Daily that the price of raw materials rose, and the price of new energy vehicles was greatly affected. At the same time, the price of upstream raw materials in power batteries soared, and it has also become a "block" that blocks the rapid development of new energy vehicles.

It can be seen from the interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter that this development situation will continue in a certain period of time.

"In the second half of the year, the terminal industry maintained a high heat, and the progress of lithium iron phosphate was promoted in an orderly manner, and the demand for lithium carbonate products was improved." Zhuo Chuang Information Analyst Han Minhua introduced to the Securities Daily reporter that new and old players actively enter the market for lithium carbonate stability Suppliers, advance locks are one of the main discussions methods in the current industry. This phenomenon directly leads to the main concentration of social inventory in the middle business and downstream head factories. There is no spot inventory for lithium carbonate suppliers, and the new single price is strong.

"In the short term, the price of lithium carbonate prices has been put on all pressure. On the one hand, it is better supported by demand, the supply level of the supplier is not high, and the sales are smooth; on the other hand, the price of lithium carbonate is rising, and the price of downstream material products is also available for the price There is no obvious rising, and there is a blocking conduction of lithium carbonate prices, and there are certain restrictions on the rise in subsequent product prices. On the whole, short -term domestic lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a narrow range. "Han Minhua told reporters.

Taken together, the price of lithium battery materials fluctuates from the industrial chain, and it moves the whole body.

The latest research report of Ping An Securities believes that the supply of upstream lithium resources is the key to determining the future trend of lithium prices. The mismatch of upstream and downstream production cycles is the root cause of the difficulty responding to the rapid response under the outbreak of lithium demand. In the shortage pattern, the resource end is still an important variable in the trend of lithium prices in the future. At present, the cost support of the supply and demand gap is shifted up, and there is still some room for lithium prices. The global lithium resources still maintain a tight pattern before 2024. Under the bottleneck of resources, the profit of the industrial chain has gradually moved up. The package sales model may further amplify the contradiction between supply and demand. It is expected that lithium prices will remain high.

In view of this, companies that are highly self -sufficient or are accelerating are generally optimistic about the industry.

Dong Yang, the chairman of the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, said recently that in order to cope with the rise in raw materials, the OEM has entered the upstream and downstream of the battery industry chain. Essence

For example, in order to lock upstream resources in Ningde Times, the integrated integration of upstream and downstream integration, and continuously deploy lithium carbonate projects in Yichun, Jiangxi.

On September 7, Longxuan Technology announced that Tangshan Xinfeng Lithium Industry and Ningde's subsidiary's subsidiary Yichun era intends to cooperate with an annual output of 30,000 tons of lithium carbonate projects. This is not the first time in the Ningde era. In September last year, the Ningde era announced that it would invest more than 500 billion yuan in Yichun to build lithium battery bases and corresponding lithium carbonate and other materials production bases.

According to public information, Yichun, Jiangxi, has the world's largest lithium cloud female mine, which can use 2.6 million tons of lithium oxide reserves, accounting for 37.6%of the country's total, and is known as the "Asian lithium capital".

Earlier, head companies such as Ganfeng Lithium have been deployed here.

"From the perspective of the current development of the industry, it is recommended that upstream lithium salt manufacturers fully integrate global resources, accelerate the research and development process of salt lakes and Yunmu lithium lifting technology, and improve their lithium resource supply chain toughness and anti -risk capabilities." Sidi adviser's new materials industry Research Center Analyst Zhao Denui introduced the "Securities Daily" reporter that downstream battery manufacturers should strengthen technological research and development, improve the key performance indicators of battery products, and strengthen the management of the life cycle of lithium battery life, promote the upstream and downstream cooperation of the industrial chain to build recycling channels, and share together The integrated value chain of lithium battery; enterprises related to lithium -related industries should also accelerate the integrated layout of the industrial chain, which can maintain a relatively stable profit level while ensuring the supply of critical resources and reduce the risks and pressures brought by the large market expansion. "The profit of the lithium battery industry chain is concentrated in the upstream lithium ore link. In terms of the positive electrode materials of the production link, although the current theoretical profit value is profitable, due to the limited acceptance of downstream battery factories on prices, the actual transaction still has a pressure price. Limited. Enterprises should be reasonably planned according to their own actual situation, and we should not enter blindly. We should strengthen the planning layout of the resource end and establish a good cooperative relationship with upstream and downstream. "Qu Yinfei further said.

How to break through battery recycling?

As the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the recycling industry of the power battery began to become hot, and even the phenomenon of "inverted price".

Tianfeng Securities said that power battery recycling, as the post -cycle industry of lithium batteries, is expected to be transmitted by the industrial chain. It is expected to increase year by year. It is expected that the total volume of power batteries in my country in 2030 is expected to reach 38.03 billion watt -hour. From 2021 to 2030, CAGR (Average annual compound growth rate) is as high as 48.9%, and it is expected to present index growth in the future. From the perspective of long -viewing corners, the industry is now at the starting point of the long -time cycle.

Under the expected development of Gao Jinggua, many listed companies have layout in the field of power battery recycling.

"Enterprises mainly lay out power battery recycling business through self -built recycling production capacity and acquisition of existing recycling enterprises." Wang Xuelei Wang Xuelei, a power battery analyst at the Shanghai Steel Union New Energy Division, told the Securities Daily reporter.

In 2015, Ningde Times entered the field of power battery recycling through acquisition of Guangdong Bangpu. In 2018, Ningde Times signed a memorandum of understanding of strategic cooperation with SAIC. The two sides planned to further deepen cooperation and discuss the recycling and reuse of new energy vehicle power batteries.

In addition, listed companies such as BYD, Huayou Cobalt, Ganfeng Lithium Industry have begun to deploy the power battery recycling industry.

Long -term logistics also set up a new energy business department in February this year. This department takes automobile logistics as the starting point to explore comprehensive services such as logistics, warehousing, charging and replacement and power battery recycling for new energy vehicles upstream and downstream industrial chain customers.

Gu Ning, deputy general manager of the long -term logistics new energy business department, said in an interview with the "Securities Daily" reporter: "For many years, long -term logistics has been doing service work around the car and accumulated many OEM resources. In addition, the company is still 4S at 4S The store has a strong advantage, and the 4S shop will be an important power battery recycling channel in the future. Although the current 4S shop is still serving fuel vehicles, it will gradually shift to the field of new energy vehicles in the future. "

According to Tianfeng Securities, there are three mainstream business models in the current power battery recycling market: the model that uses battery manufacturers as the recycling subject; the model of recycling the main body of the vehicle manufacturer and the third party as the recycling subject.

The market is favored, policies are favorable, and the power battery recycling industry has flourished. Since this year, the social financing volume of battery recycling and utilization enterprises has increased significantly. However, the problems of the industry in the process of rapid development cannot be ignored. Too much "small workshop" is one of the important features of the current development of the industry.

Gu Ning told reporters that there are currently more than 30,000 power battery recycling companies in the country, but there are currently only 47 companies on the industry's list, but this number has increased year by year. There are too many "small workshops" in the industry, and the degree of industry norms need to be improved urgently.

"At present, the country has not monitored the entire life cycle of power batteries. Many new energy car owners are just to sell old cars at a high price without taking regular channels to deal with vehicles." Jiangxi New Energy Technology Vocational College of New Energy Vehicle Technology Research Institute Dean Zhang Xiang told the Securities Daily reporter.

In addition, the "inverted price" caused by individual traders "stocking" is another characteristic of the development of the industry.

Due to the above reasons, many power battery recycling companies have to face the problem of profit and difficulty.

"At present, the battery recycling business of most companies has not yet achieved profits. Among many industry head companies, battery recycling is not the main source of revenue, but it is an auxiliary business. However, the market space for power battery recycling in the future is very large. "Zhang Xiang said.

In order to avoid the phenomenon of inferior coins expelled good currency, Qi Haiyu, president of Beijing Extreme Sunshine New Energy, said in an interview with the Securities Daily reporter: "The industry needs to quickly strengthen the cultivation of the professional, standardized and large -scale talents of retired batteries With the construction of the system, the fine recycling and efficient processing of batteries also test the company's understanding and in -depth degree of understanding of the battery industry. Generally speaking, power battery recycling is a special industry with labor -intensive, technical dense and capital -intensive types, batteries, batteries, batteries, batteries, batteries, batteries, batteries. The efficient recycling of rare metals in it plays a vital role in the sustainable development of the battery industry and the balance of new product market prices. Especially with the coming period of the three -yuan battery installation period, the industrialization and scale of the battery recycling and reuse of the market and the scale Both the market and business models are urgently needed to establish and improve. "The price of lithium salt products represented by lithium carbonate continues to rise, and the industrial chain development of the industrial chain is unbalanced, so that the" abandoned "power battery has been re -rebuilt.

Speaking of the development pattern of the power battery recycling industry in the future, Wang Xuelei said that in the field of steps, companies with strong business model innovation capabilities are more likely to win in competition. However, in the field of resource regeneration, smelting and processing enterprises with capital advantages are easier to win, and the strong is Hengqiang. In addition, the recovery rate of lithium still has a lot of room for improvement, and technology -leading companies are more likely to gain advantages.

"Battery production enterprises and automobile manufacturers have a strong source of waste sources." Cheng Ling believes that it is expected to further improve the integrated layout for battery factories and car factories with comprehensive utilization capabilities, thereby optimizing production costs; with the policy With the continuous improvement of the recycling network, the existing third -party recycling enterprises have deepened cooperation with battery factories and car factories to ensure their own sources of waste, and rely on production capacity, customers, technology and other advantages to establish a leading position.

Our reporter Li Chunlian Gui Xiaoshu

Lear reporter Xu Linyan

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