Obviously: Why did the coal debt stand out under the "asset shortage"?
Author:Zhongxin Jingwei Time:2022.09.21
Zhongxin Jingwei, September 21st: Why does the coal debt stand out under the "asset shortage"?
Author Mingming Securities Chief Economist
The current international energy supply and demand are tight. We once again focus on the coal field where the credit spread is extremely compressed, with a view to finding opportunities for coal bond investment in the "asset shortage" pattern. In the context of carbon neutralization and carbon peaks, China's coal industry will experience innovation. However, due to China's energy structure and resource endowment characteristics, the fundamentals of coal have certain support, and the coal bond market is becoming more mature in the industry cycle change process.
The reform of the coal industry is imperative, but the fundamentals still have strong support. With the implementation of the "double carbon" policy, the growth rate of coal demand may slow down in the short term, but because the current international energy supply and demand are tight, the demand for coal is still guaranteed. In the middle and long term, industry innovation will lead to a decline in fuel demand for coal as power generation, but the use of space in other fields is expected to expand. China's oil and gas imports are relatively high, and imports are facing uncertainty for a long time. Therefore, traditional coal will not change in the medium period of Chinese energy compressor stones. Domestic power generation is still mainly thermal power, and the demand for thermal power has continued to increase. Among them, coal -fired power generation accounts for relatively high power, so coal has very strong demand support.
The regional distribution characteristics of China's raw coal production are obvious. From the perspective of the supply structure, domestic production is the main part of China's coal supply, accounting for more than 90 %, and since the adjustment of "de -capacity", the structure of China's coal supply has been relatively stable. The distribution of coal resources in China has generally presents the characteristics of "west more and east", and coal production has gradually concentrated to the three provinces of Jin, Shaanxi and Mongolia. From the perspective of demand, the eastern region is obviously higher than the western region. Under the mismatch of the regional supply and demand, the transportation channel for "Western Coal East Transport" has not only solved the problem of uneven resource distribution, but also fully drives the energy of the central and western parts in the central and western regions. Economic development in large provinces.
China's coal price has seasonal support, and it is expected to remain in a higher position in the fourth quarter. From a seasonal perspective, coal, as the main energy of thermal power generation, when the amount of thermal power is rising, it can reflect the rise in coal demand to a certain extent. Due to the changes in temperature over the years, there are more electricity consumption in winter and summer. As the main energy of thermal power generation, the demand for coal during this period has also increased accordingly, so that coal prices have strong seasonal support. From the perspective of supply and demand, the current international energy supply and demand are tight, and the uncertainty of imported energy sources is high, which will lead to increased dependence on coal in the short term. With the support of demand, it is expected that coal prices will remain in a higher position in the fourth quarter. Essence
China's coal industry has gone through several rounds. From 2012 to 2018, when the economy fell smoothly and coal prices continued to decline, supply -side reforms led to rising coal prices and entering high consolidation. The coal industry has completed a complete cycle. Since 2019, the coal industry has opened a new cycle. Since the third quarter of 2021, in the context of "double carbon", coal supply and demand mismatch, coal prices have risen rapidly, entering a new upward range, even under price control, there is a high vibration trend. Looking back, the coal industry has become more complete in cycle change.
After experiencing the impact of bond default, the coal industry became more mature. On the one hand, Chinese investors have become more rational about risks, and market mechanisms become more mature. On the other hand, after the impact of the previous breach of breach of contract, the sector bonds have performed "shorts in short space", which is worthy of our summary and reflection in future strategies.
Recently, the market has focused on re -ignition of cyclical products. The direction of new and old energy is a clear and persistent main line that the current market is relatively clear. In the short term, you can deal with black related opportunities. Focus on chemical -related sectors in terms of supply logic. With the recent market decline, the direction of clean energy may usher in the layout window period. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
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