The commodity weekly newspaper 丨 The tide of interest rate hikes fell heavy oil prices, gold, natural gas, and pig prices fell, metal copper or gap in supply

21st Century Business Herald reporter Peng Qiang Beijing report

This week (September 19th-September 23rd) the global multi-countries started interest rate hike operations, which caused concerns about economic recession. The US dollar continued to be strong, driving the prices of crude oil and gold to fall again. Setting below $ 80/barrel.

In terms of natural gas markets, the seasonal cool weather has driven the price of natural gas in the United States; the European market has accelerated the filling of the gas storage storage and reduced the amount of demand, and the local gas price has gradually fallen at a high level.

In terms of steel market, terminal demand is still yet to be released, and raw materials such as iron ore and other raw materials are relatively stable. Copper prices have stabilized this week, but the organization warns that the copper market will face a large supply gap in the next few years. The Development and Reform Commission has continuously touched the supply of pork, and the price of pigs has dropped significantly this week. The institution is expected to have some support for pig prices in the fourth quarter.

US oil fell below the $ 80 mark

This week, since the US Federal Reserve's 75 basis points, the central banks of the United Kingdom, Sweden, Switzerland and other countries have followed up the interest rate hike operation to deal with inflation. The tide of global interest rate hikes has caused concerns about economic recession, suppressing the expectations of crude oil demand. At the same time, the strong US dollar has also made other currency holders more expensive to buy crude oil, further reducing the market demand of crude oil.

Under the influence of comprehensive factors, international oil prices have fallen sharply. As of the morning of September 24th, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures delivered in November fell 5.69%to close at $ 78.74/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures in November fell 4.76%, closing at $ 86.15 /bucket. This is the first time that Midea Oil has fallen below the $ 80/barrel mark since January this year.

As the price of crude oil loses the $ 80 mark, the market sentiment is also changing. On the one hand, the U.S. government may replenish crude oil inventory at the price of oil; on the other hand, the OPEC+oil -producing country alliance is facing the pressure of increasingly reducing production and saving the market, which may limit the room for further decline in oil prices in the future.

Seasonal demand downturnal pressure, low voltage of US natural gas spot prices

Last week, the price of natural gas rose sharply after the price of natural gas rose, and the price shook all the way this week. As of September 24, the price of natural gas futures in the United States fell to $ 6.995/million, and it fell to a new low since late July.

In recent months, strong demand for gas power has been supporting gas prices in many places in the United States. However, with the arrival of autumn and the cool weather prediction of the meteorological department, the price of natural gas in the United States has fallen sharply.

According to S & P Global Pushi, the National Meteorological Administration of Meteorological stated that most parts of the United States will feel the cool weather in autumn recently. The natural gas demand of the local power department in the United States has decreased by about 8.2 billion cubic feet in the past two days, a decrease of about 20 %, which is almost the same as the average level in the past five years.

European TTF natural gas price continues to fall

This week, the Dutch benchmark TTF natural gas futures prices rose first. On September 20, the price of TTF futures rose to 194.259 euros/MWh, and then continued to fall, and by September 23, it fell to 181.9 euros/MWh.

Gao Pengfei, an analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out that the European market has increased at a high level of natural gas inventory, the demand for downstream markets is constantly "voluntary", the supply of natural gas is excess, and the market price is continuously declined. However, the risk of insufficient natural gas supply in winter still exists. Make up the intention. In addition, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and US dollars have tightened, and the market inflation level has increased, driving natural gas prices to stop falling.

At the second "Carbon neutral and Summit Forum" organized by Finance and Economics magazine, Lufut chief power and carbon analyst Qin Yan analyzed pointed out that Europe is currently facing the risk of high energy prices and winter energy shortages. They are stepping up to find alternative gas sources, replenish storage storage inventory, and reduce demand side dosage. The gap between natural gas supply and demand in winter is not large, but the price is still high.

Gold prices fell for five consecutive months

The international gold price continued to fall this week. As of September 24, the price of gold futures in New York fell to $ 1651.19/ounce, the lowest closing price since April 2020, a decrease of about 20 % compared to the high in March.

At the level of news, the market is concerned that the Federal Reserve has further raised interest rates and caused economic recession. In addition, the US dollar has continued to strengthen, and many factors have affected the gold trend.

Market coal resources need to be supplemented

The analysis of CCTD China Coal Market Network pointed out that the recent disturbance of the coal supply side is frequent, and there are many factors that have multiple factors in the later period. The tight coal supply is expected to heat up, and the domestic power coal market price has rebounded rapidly.

CCTD pointed out that the current market is basically stable, and the continuity of demand needs to be observed. Driven by policies such as increasing production of supply and supply and the full coverage of the long -term contract of electric coal, the Port Port and terminal inventory have been significantly improved compared with the same period last year.

However, the centralized procurement of the non -electricity industry has promoted the rapid rise of coal prices in this round of coal, the cost of coal procurement is rapidly upward, the profit of embezzlement of the industry, the increase in prices, and limited downstream acceptance capabilities. CCTD said that the spot market for coal in the port market has been difficult to effectively supplement, and the structural contradiction between supply is difficult to improve in the short term.

Steel prices pressure fluctuation adjustment

This week, the comprehensive price of Lange Iron and Steel National Steel was 4294 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from last week. The start rate of blast furnaces began to decline after seven weeks, and the social inventory rose one week after a week. In terms of cost and profit, the price of iron ore and scrap steel this week has shook slightly, coke prices remain stable, steel prices are adjusted, and steel mills have narrowed the profit of steel mills again. Lange Iron and Steel pointed out that the contradictions of insufficient domestic market demand are still relatively prominent. Policy requirements focus on promoting support for infrastructure construction and equipment renewal and transformation.

Recently, the profit of steel mills has been compressed again, and the enthusiasm of the re -production of steel mills has begun to weaken. The demand for the end market market in the peak season is recovering, which has also been released to release the demand for stocking before the festival. It is expected that the steel market will show a slight rise in the steel market next week.

Iron ore price shocks slightly

This week, the main contract price of domestic iron ore futures was closed at 712.5 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as last week. Essence

Lange Iron and Steel pointed out that the number of global iron ore has increased steadily, and the number of ores that Australia and Brazil to China have increased slightly. In the short term, the profitability of steel companies has declined, the release of production capacity has been restricted, and the amount of Hong Kong is superimposed. The supply of iron ore is relatively sufficient. However, the National Day is coming. Before the holiday, the demand for replenishment in the steel mills is strong. The inventory of iron ore imported from ports will still show a decline. It is expected that the imported iron ore price index will show a strong operating trend next week.

Will copper supply shortage?

Copper prices have stabilized this week. The Shanghai Topin Futures closed at 6,1290 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as last week. Lunbin fell slightly. This week, it closed at $ 7439.45/ton.

Huarong Futures Research Report pointed out that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hike once suppressed the copper trend, but the mood eased, and the decline in Shanghai copper narrowed. In August, domestic economic data recovered, and the traditional consumption season of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" was superimposed. Copper consumption improved from the previous month, and the global copper inventory is currently at a historical low. The duration of supply and demand to maintain a tight pattern may exceed expectations, and there is still solid support below the copper price.

Since the second half of the year, copper prices have risen significantly from the low level in the year, but it has fallen by more than 10%from the highest point in the year, and it is still at a relatively high level. Institutions and industry insiders warned that as metals that are widely used in industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and electricity, global copper inventory has been at a low point recently. As the demand for copper in the next few years has continued to increase, the supply of metal copper supply has been increased in the next few years, and the supply of metal copper supply has been increased in the next few years, and the supply of metal copper supply has increased in the next few years. The gap will also appear.

Pig price decline

Pig prices have dropped significantly this week. As of the closing of the afternoon of September 23, pig futures closed at 22,305 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 4.7%from 23,395 yuan/ton last weekend.

CITIC Futures Agricultural Products Research Team pointed out that the fourth quarter was the peak season of pork consumption. In terms of fundamentals, the supply is limited and demand has increased. The spot price is still strongly supported. The supply pressure is expected to appear at the end of the year or next year.

CITIC Futures pointed out that recently, the Development and Reform Commission has been touched three times in a row to increase the supply of pork in the market, and the rise of pig prices has slowed down. However, the supply side is facing pressure such as storage, breeding rate repair, weight gain, and concentrated rabding at the end of the year. Therefore, for the pig far -month contract, it is necessary to pay attention to the signal of the high throwing.

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