coming!The world's top fund manager, 25 years of experience sharing!

We seem to make a bad decision.

Behavioral economics has a special discussion about this phenomenon. The evolution of the human brain is to adapt to the survival of the wild. When our ancestors encountered the situation, choosing a battle or running may be a life and death choice.

Daniel Caniman calls the intuition of this action as a thinking system, that is, most of the decisions we make are intuitive reactions. Occasionally, we will also consciously turn to the thinking system, which will make us more cautiously handle the information.

Perhaps the right to speak for decision -making, maybe the fund manager's right to speak. After all, for their work, it is the basic requirement to make a lot of decisions accurately and quickly.

In the book "Smart Fund Manager", one of the "Top Ten Must Listen to Investment Podcasts" selected by "Internal Scenery of the Business", the founder and top hedge fund investor Ted Siders shared After 25 years of investment practice experience, and summarizing the experience of the 150th guest interview with the "Capital Configuration", we will all presented the experience of the guest interview with the "Capital Configuration".

01

Why is it so difficult to make good decisions

Duke is a legend in the poker world. He is the author of "Thinking in Betting" and "Gambling". He has made a 20 -year decision on the poker table. In each hand, she will make some small temptations. After getting real -time feedback, she has the opportunity to evaluate her decision.

Duke's research in this field helped her understand why people make bad decisions. Similar decisions and bets are based on some belief in the law of the world. When a fund manager bought a stock or fund, he must believe that the investment is better than other options.

The way human beings form their faith is anti -intuitive. Some people may think that when we hear an idea, we will think about it first, then judge whether it is true, and then form a hypothesis. But in fact, the brain is not working like this. On the contrary, when we hear an idea, we will immediately use the thinking system to determine it. We will then turn to the system to think and examine the idea.

Belief is based on facts and predictions, and our ability to deal with facts and make predictions is not perfect.

Duke pointed out that the confirmation of deviation, motivated reasoning and ethnic identity are the three most harmful ways that cause our belief that there may be defects.

Confirm that the deviation is a well -known behavioral defect, which means that we easily pay attention and emphasize those information that can confirm our existing opinions. Michael Mobson said: "If you are in the investment industry but have not fallen into confirmation deviations, then I suspect that you have not really worked."

The motivation for reasoning is equivalent to taking steroid confirmation deviations, and investors try to slander information that contradict their assumptions.

Finally, our relationship with our ethnic groups will also affect our views. As investors, we will always belong to a certain ethnic group, such as value investment groups, trend investment groups or long -term investment ethnic groups. We do not trust the information generated by the source outside the ethnic group.

Just aware that our cognitive deviations cannot eliminate them. Our inherent result -oriented deviation, self -service deviation, and rearview mirror deviation, which suppress our ability to improve the decision -making process.

Duke's result -oriented deviation refers to the relationship between people who cannot clarify good decisions and good results. When the capital configuration person sees a fund manager a good performance, he will think that he must make good decisions; and bad performance must come from bad decisions. Just as the management member of the ARBITER partners company Paul Isaac lasting to laughed at the fund manager: "Going down is called fluctuations, and deviations from upward are called performance."

All investors have self -service deviations, and they are attributed to themselves when good things happen. When a good decision produces bad results, you need to think about the system to carefully identify it. But if the decision -making process has good results because of good luck, it is difficult to identify.

The deviation of the rearview mirror will prevent people from accurately evaluating the past decisions. Investors will distort the true situation of a decision in the subconscious. Capital configurations are both smart and thoughtful, but unfortunately, this may only strengthen their stubbornness. The smarter they are, the more they are good at rationalizing their existing beliefs, improving motivated reasoning, and adhering to their own opinions.

The time limit for selecting fund managers is not as strict as playing cards, so some people think that this will reduce the decision -making pressure of capital configurations, but the fact is that even if there is no time pressure, the decision -making may still be deviated.

Team decision -making or decision -making in the form of investment committees has even more integrated this challenge, because interaction among team members will affect everyone's independent thinking and exploration of the truth. prerequisites.

However, the chief investor generally works with the team, so let's discuss how to improve the team's decision -making process.

02

3 steps for improving team decision -making process

step 1

Set a good team structure

The setting of a good team structure laid the foundation for a sound decision -making process. Team collaboration can more effectively discover and weigh a series of possible results produced by investment decisions. "Can" is an important warning, because a team with poor construction or management will exacerbate behavioral deviations.

The scale, continuity and diversity of the team will have a significant impact on the effectiveness of the chief investor's decision -making. ➤ The optimal scale. The vast majority of chief investment officers ignore the scale of internal small teams. The size of the team is different. Mobson quoted a research point of view, that is, the best size of a decision unit is 4 to 6 people. Duke believes that a team with only 3 people will be very effective.

➤ continuity. The longer the team's cooperation, the stronger the decision -making ability of the chief investor. Because repeating multiple times can allow the team to gain common knowledge and consciousness and enhance their confidence in the decision -making process.

。 Cognitive diversity. A ideal team should have a cognitive diversity, that is, team members will have different ideas. Team members with cognitive differences may have different background, training experience, experience, and personality. Social diversity (race, gender, age, family origin, etc.) can provide extensive life experience and perspective. It is interesting that social diversity does not always lead to cognitive diversity. The key to good decisions is that the members of the team have truly diversified ideas, not members who are different but their ideas are the same.

The chief investment officers must be cautious between the potential conflict between the diverse ideas and the potential conflict of the team's cohesion. To achieve the diversity of cognition, it is necessary to gather members from different cultural backgrounds, but due to the differences in behavioral rules, they may instinctively have deviations on each other's views.

The cracks between the diversity and cohesion are a challenge. Mobson suggested to find people who are high -"business" (RQ, rational business). Reasonable thinking is more good at accepting differences, which is easier to benefit from cognitive diversity. After forming a team of high -rally merchants and a cognitive diversity, it will start to promote the progress of various things smoothly. The way the team chooses will determine the success or failure of the matter.

Step 2

By guiding the obstacles in the decision -making process

Once the team is completed, it will significantly affect the performance of the team. A good decision -making process encourages cognitive security, independent thinking, and behavior consciousness.

➤ Cognitive safety. Team members need to have a sense of security to express different views freely. This sense of security is largely from the team leader, and he sets the tone for the team through his own words and deeds.

Efficient leaders will encourage collaboration and encourage the thinking of breaking the circle, and avoid complaints when they have bad results in the good process.

➤ Thinking independently. The order of speech in the team decision will significantly change the final result. When a respected leader or the person considered an expert expresses opinions, the independent views of other members in the team will be affected.

Efficient leaders will prevent their views from affecting others through clever meeting arrangements. First of all, they will let the youngest or least experienced members spoke first; second, they will guide the conversation to stay away from the influential outward members in the group, so that the introverts have the opportunity to participate in equal participation; again, others in the team in the team are Before they speak, they do not express their own views; then, they will explain in a probability to express uncertainty and invite everyone to discuss; in the end, they will introduce the way of voting to avoid the members' own influence and The relationship between them has an impact on decision -making.

➤ behavioral consciousness. Each team member has its own deviation. If team members can understand each other's personal deviations, then such a team is not easy to be disturbed, thereby reaching the core of the problem more effectively.

Maintaining some universal deviations can help the chief investment officer to clear the obstacles in the decision -making process. Inside the team, the chief investment officer should pay special attention to emphasizing the criteria for incidents. They want to guide team members to look at the results correctly and focus on the facts, not emotional factors.

Step 3

The list of factors to be considered in preparation for decision -making

Once the team structure and guidance are ready, the chief investor can prepare a list of factors that need to be considered during the decision -making process. These factors include probability thinking, combined with historical data, risk assessment, inspection deviation, and feedback.

维 Use probability thinking. Efficient teams generally like to speak with probability.

When making important choices in the two options, Duke recommended 6 steps in the book "Gambling". Create a separate probability matrix for each option, including the following elements: all possible reasonable results, the return of each result, and the probability of each result. Following these 6 steps to stimulate anti -factual thinking, decision makers can expand their perspectives to the result of the maximum probability, and they can consider various potential possibilities more comprehensively.

➤ Combined with historical data. Combined with historical data, or opening the external perspective, it is an efficient means to suppress excessive self -confidence.

In most cases, we are making decisions with internal perspectives. Whenever we encounter an investment opportunity, we first collect as much information as possible, then do due diligence, and make an estimate of the future with our experience and judgment.

The external perspective must consider statistical samples of similar situations. Capital configurations do not just look at the expected benefits and risks of a specific investment opportunity, but study a large number of similar opportunities in the past to make correct decisions.

➤ Risk assessment. When the work of the fund manager is completed, the capital configuration may wish to take a step back to reintegrate which step may there be risks. Tools such as the analysis of the "pre -inspection", the "Red Team" analysis method, the devil spokesperson and the approval/opposition list all help the chief investor to discover the risk of being ignored. ➤ Check the deviation. The chief investor can use a list to review the bias that may exist in the decision -making process before making a decision. The choice of timing and excessive self -confidence are the two factors that may affect investment decisions.

➤ Collect feedback. Sometimes, although we have made good decisions, the effect is not good. Sometimes we make some bad decisions, but the results are not bad.

We need to get feedback to help us make better decisions in the future to improve and strengthen investment decisions. The role of decision logs, decision groups and luck, these are useful tools to establish feedback ring in the decision -making process.

It is not easy to make the right decision. We are inherently good at here, so we need to establish a reasonable process to weaken our mistakes, which can make our decision -making quality less bad.

《The above content is selected from "Smart Fund Manager"

Recommended reading

The first investment work of the author Ted Sids is a teacher from David Stanson to explore the road of winning investment. The original intention of Wests to write this book is to reveal how the world's top fund managers manage and invest, thereby helping investors better make investment decisions.

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This book condenses Sids's 25 -year investment practice experience and summarizes the experience of the 150th guest interview of the "Capital Configuration". Although the content of the book comes from global practice, many content injects the views on active investment and passive investment, and it is also a hot issue in Chinese professionals. I believe that Chinese investors, especially fund managers, have inspired this book.

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